Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, December 20, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 4.5 in Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 15 2026 — 63% to win, and the second AFC West meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DENLV yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Raiders at 32c or below (or Broncos at 58c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
LV
-5.8
Broncos
63%
model win prob
Raiders
37%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DENLVhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Raiders at 32c or below, or the Broncos at 58c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Broncos and Raiders already played in Week 11, and now the Broncos make the return trip in Week 15. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -5.8 against +1.2, plus home field, equals the Broncos by 4.5 (63%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +0.4 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 4.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 2.5-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 11, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9) — 3.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 15th-hardest on the Broncos'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Broncos' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 24-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Broncos here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DENLV, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Raiders 37%, Broncos 63%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Raiders contracts a buy at 32c or below and Broncos contracts a buy at 58c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Raiders in Week 15?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 4.5 points, a 63% win probability over the Raiders. The Raiders rate 32nd of 32 (-5.8) and the Broncos 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DENLV yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 11. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Broncos by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Raiders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC20DENLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 32c or below, or the Broncos at 58c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, December 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 15, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 15th-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Broncos?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Broncos at 63% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 15 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 11. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Broncos–Raiders, Week 11 →
More Week 15 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.