Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Bills

58%

model win prob

Jets

42%

model win prob

Model line

Bills −2.5

Kalshi (Jets)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bills — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Buffalo Bills+2.25thPlayoff

New York Jets-3.029thBelow Avg

The prediction-market read

In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills travel to face the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Jets 29th of 32 (Below Avg tier, -3.0) and the Bills 5th (Playoff tier, +2.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bills by 2.5 — a 58% win probability for the Bills.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 42% (Jets) / 58% (Bills) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bills vs Jets — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bills vs Jets in Week 10?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bills by 2.5 points and gives them a 58% win probability over the Jets. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bills vs Jets?

Home win probability 42% (Jets), away 58% (Bills). That comes from a power-rating differential of -5.3 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Jets rate 29th of 32 (Below Avg tier), the Bills 5th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Bills vs Jets on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.