Bills vs Jets Prediction β Week 10, Sun Nov 15
Updated Β· model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 Β· MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- Last week: Bills play Mon 8:15 PM ET at Vikings β preview
- Last week: Jets play Sun 1:00 PM ET at Chiefs β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Bills by 2.5 in Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets, NFL Week 10 2026 β 57% to win, and a AFC East game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 38c or below (or Bills at 52c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+2.3
NYJ
-2.7
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Bills
57%
our model
Jets
43%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
63%
Madden 27
37%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 38c or below, or the Bills at 52c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Bills at Jets How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Bills vs Jets power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
Bills and Jets season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Bills vs Jets β player pages
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
AFC East math: Bills at Jets
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets is a AFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Bills by 2.5 (57%) off a -2.7 to +2.3 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.5 (1st of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.0 (25th) β 6.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-1.4, 28th) meets the Bills defense (-2.8, 28th), a 1.4-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next β so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.3 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Bills at 11.2 (favored in 11) β 4.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 7th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Bills'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Bills' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bills won 35-8 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 0-4. It is not an input to the line β rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bills at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here β 43% / 57% β the tradable window is narrow: Jets at 38c or below, Bills at 52c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Jets on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ
- Market-implied (Jets)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Jets)
- 43%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jets at 38c or below, or the Bills at 52c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Bills vs Jets line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Bills β7 (DraftKings). The median across 2 books now is the Bills β7.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Bills β7 Β· O/U 46.5Sep 13 | Bills β7 Β· O/U 46.5 | |
| Caesars | Bills β6.5 Β· O/U 45.5Sep 13 | Bills β6.5 Β· O/U 45.5 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where Bills vs Jets trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jets | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Bills vs Jets
Bills vs Jets β frequently asked
Who will win Jets vs Bills?
Our model has the Bills at 57% to beat the Jets in Week 10.
Who is favored in Bills vs Jets in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 2.5 points, a 57% win probability over the Jets. The Jets rate 27th of 32 (-2.7) and the Bills 7th (+2.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that β it prices the Bills by 2.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 38c or below, or the Bills at 52c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets on Sunday, November 15, 2026 β a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.3 wins (favored in 3) and the Bills at 11.2 (favored in 11). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Bills', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Jets?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jets at 38c or below or the Bills at 52c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Bills vs Jets on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Bills?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 β trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input β the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bills at 57% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Bills vs Jets ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. BillsβJets, Week 18 β
After this one
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See the in-season NFL tools βPrediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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