Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 5.5 in Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets, NFL Week 10 2026 — 66% to win, and a AFC East game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 29c or below (or Bills at 61c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+4.2
NYJ
-4.0
Bills
66%
model win prob
Jets
34%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 29c or below, or the Bills at 61c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
AFC East math: Bills at Jets
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets is a AFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Bills by 5.5 (66%) off a -4.0 to +4.2 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.2 (27th) — 6.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-3.1, 30th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 2.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.4 (17th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13) — 3.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Bills'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Bills' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bills won 35-8 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jets 34%, Bills 66%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jets contracts a buy at 29c or below and Bills contracts a buy at 61c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Jets in Week 10?
Our power-rating model favors the Bills by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Jets. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Bills 4th (+4.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bills by 5.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15BUFNYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 29c or below, or the Bills at 61c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Bills?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Bills at 66% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Get the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bills–Jets, Week 18 →
More Week 10 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.