Weather prediction markets
Live Kalshi contracts on daily high temperatures across US cities and on Eastern and Central Pacific storm counts. Each price is already a probability. These are the markets where the settlement rule matters most — the named station and the strictly-greater-than comparison decide more positions than the forecast does.
Our record on weather contracts
+$7.85
net
+3.4¢
per contract
230
graded
34.0%
win rate
Net is a SUM over a flat one-contract stake; “per contract” is the average. A win rate below 50% alongside a positive net is the model working as designed: it buys cheap contracts that pay multiples, so most lose small and the winners carry the book. Judge it on net, not on win rate. Full method on the track record.
Open now
A contract price in cents is already a probability — 42c is a 42% implied chance. Prices from Kalshi, refreshed periodically; check the exchange before taking a position.
Price it yourself
Weather Edge →
Our temperature model against the Kalshi ladder, city by city — the engine behind the record above.
How these contracts settle
Which station, which provider, and whether the comparison is strict — one page per series. On this board those three answers decide more positions than the forecast does.
Reading
Weather edges the morning the ladders open — temperature and storm counts. Free.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Can you trade the weather on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi lists daily high-temperature contracts for a set of US cities and season-long contracts on Eastern and Central Pacific storm counts. Each trades between 1c and 99c on a CFTC-regulated exchange and settles at $1 or $0, so the price is the implied probability. It is a contracts exchange, not a sportsbook.
Which weather station decides a temperature contract?
One named station, and this is the single most expensive trap in the category. A city has several official sensors — an airport, a downtown climate station — and they routinely disagree by a few degrees on a hot afternoon. Only the station named in the rules counts, and only the named data provider’s figure counts, even if another source published a higher reading. The settlement page for each city names both.
Does hitting the threshold exactly resolve YES?
No. The comparison is strictly greater than, so a contract asking for more than 92 degrees resolves NO at exactly 92. On a contract that spends the whole afternoon within a degree of its strike, that one word is the entire position.
Why is the win rate under 50% when the record is positive?
Because the model is not trying to be right often — it is trying to buy contracts priced below what they are worth. Those tend to be cheap tail outcomes that pay several times the stake, so most positions lose a little and the winners carry the book. Judge a strategy like that on net result per contract, never on win rate; the two point in opposite directions by design.
Are there Atlantic hurricane contracts on Kalshi?
Not right now. Every open contract in the hurricane and named-storm series is Eastern Pacific or Central Pacific — checked against the exchange, with no Atlantic basin market in either series and no separate Atlantic series listed. That is worth knowing before you go looking: a storm-count position taken here is a Pacific position, and Atlantic activity does not settle it.
How far ahead are weather contracts listed?
Daily temperature ladders open the morning of, or the day before, and settle that evening, so the whole cycle is measured in hours. Storm-count contracts run the length of the season and settle at the end of it, which makes them the one weather market where a position can be held for months.