Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 3 in Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints, NFL Week 13 2026 — 58% to win, and a 4-day rest edge for the Packers, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Saints at 37c or below (or Packers at 53c or below) is where the model would take a position.
GB
+2.9
NO
-2.4
Packers
58%
model win prob
Saints
42%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNOhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Saints at 37c or below, or the Packers at 53c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Packers at Saints
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Packers come in with 4 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Saints against 11 days' rest for the Packers. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Packers by 3 (58%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 4-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Packers come in off the Rams, the Saints off the Bengals. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.2 (5th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.5 (14th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.6, 27th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 15th), a 1.1-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Packers +0.3 (21st of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Saints at 7.7 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Saints' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Packers'.
The series is dead level: 6-6 across 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Packers won 34-0 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Saints are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Packers at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Saints 42%, Packers 58%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Saints contracts a buy at 37c or below and Packers contracts a buy at 53c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Saints — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Saints in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Packers by 3 points, a 58% win probability over the Saints. The Saints rate 26th of 32 (-2.4) and the Packers 5th (+2.9); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Packers have 4 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3-point line or the 58% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Saints?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Saints at 37c or below, or the Packers at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Saints host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
What does the model project for the Saints and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 7.7 wins (favored in 7) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Packers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Packers at 58% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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