Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 3 in Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints, NFL Week 13 2026 — 58% to win, and a 4-day rest edge for the Packers, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Saints at 37c or below (or Packers at 53c or below) is where the model would take a position.
GB
+3.0
NO
-2.3
Kalshi hasn't priced this game yet. Get the full Week 13 card free and you'll have our number in hand the morning it opens.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Packers
58%
model win prob
Saints
42%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Saints at 37c or below, or the Packers at 53c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Packers at Saints
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saints −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saints −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Saints −3.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 more rungsSaints −4.5 → Saints −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Packers at Saints
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Packers come in with 4 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Saints against 11 days' rest for the Packers. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Packers by 3 (58%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 4-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Packers come in off the Rams, the Saints off the Bengals. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.5 (13th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.5, 27th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 1.0-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Packers +0.3 (21st of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Saints at 7.8 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Saints' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Packers'.
The series is dead level: 6-6 across 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Packers won 34-0 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Saints are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Packers at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Saints 42%, Packers 58%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Saints contracts a buy at 37c or below and Packers contracts a buy at 53c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Saints on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO
- Market-implied (Saints)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Saints)
- 42%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Saints at 37c or below, or the Packers at 53c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Packers vs Saints trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Saints | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Packers vs Saints — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Saints in Week 13?
Our power-rating model picks the Packers by 3 points, a 58% win probability over the Saints, for a projected score of Packers 25, Saints 22 on a ratings-implied 46.8-point total. The Saints rate 25th of 32 (-2.3) and the Packers 5th (+3.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Packers have 4 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3-point line or the 58% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Saints?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Saints at 37c or below, or the Packers at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Saints host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
What does the model project for the Saints and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 7.8 wins (favored in 7) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Packers vs Saints?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Saints at 37c or below or the Packers at 53c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Packers vs Saints on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 13 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC06GBNO. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Packers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Packers at 58% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 13 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 13 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale