New York Jets vs Chicago Bears

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Jets

34%

model win prob

Bears

66%

model win prob

Model line

Bears −5.5

Kalshi (Bears)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bears — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New York Jets-2.329thBelow Avg

Chicago Bears+0.711thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 4, the New York Jets travel to face the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bears 11th of 32 (Average tier, +0.7) and the Jets 29th (Below Avg tier, -2.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bears by 5.5 — a 66% win probability for the Bears.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 66% (Bears) / 34% (Jets) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Jets vs Bears — frequently asked

Who is favored in Jets vs Bears in Week 4?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bears by 5.5 points and gives them a 66% win probability over the Jets. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Jets vs Bears?

Home win probability 66% (Bears), away 34% (Jets). That comes from a power-rating differential of +3.0 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bears rate 11th of 32 (Average tier), the Jets 29th (Below Avg tier).

Can you trade Jets vs Bears on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.