Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Browns by 6.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns, NFL Week 12 2026 — 68% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Browns, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Browns at 63c or below (or Raiders at 27c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-5.8
CLE
-2.0
Raiders
32%
model win prob
Browns
68%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLEhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Browns at 63c or below, or the Raiders at 27c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Raiders at Browns
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Browns come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Browns against 7 days' rest for the Raiders. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Browns by 6.5 (68%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Raiders come in off the Broncos, the Browns off the Texans. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Browns grade +1.9 on that side of the ball (3rd of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 6.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Browns offense (-3.7, 31st) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 1.8-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Raiders +0.2 (23rd of 32) to -0.2 (31st).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Browns at 7.9 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1) — 2.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Browns' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Browns' entire schedule.
The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Browns won 24-10 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Browns are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Browns here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Browns 68%, Raiders 32%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Browns contracts a buy at 63c or below and Raiders contracts a buy at 27c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Browns — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Browns in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Browns by 6.5 points, a 68% win probability over the Raiders. The Browns rate 25th of 32 (-2.0) and the Raiders 32nd (-5.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Browns have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 6.5-point line or the 68% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Browns?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Browns at 63c or below, or the Raiders at 27c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Browns host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH.
What does the model project for the Browns and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Browns at 7.9 wins (favored in 6) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Browns?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Browns at 68% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 12 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 12 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.