Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Browns by 6.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns, NFL Week 12 2026 — 68% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Browns, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Browns at 63c or below (or Raiders at 27c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-6.0
CLE
-2.3
Kalshi hasn't priced this game yet. Get the full Week 12 card free and you'll have our number in hand the morning it opens.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Raiders
32%
model win prob
Browns
68%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
51%
Madden 27
49%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Browns at 63c or below, or the Raiders at 27c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Raiders at Browns
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Browns −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Raiders at Browns
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Browns come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Browns against 7 days' rest for the Raiders. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Browns by 6.5 (68%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Raiders come in off the Broncos, the Browns off the Texans. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Browns grade +1.9 on that side of the ball (3rd of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 6.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Browns offense (-4.0, 31st) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 2.0-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Raiders +0.2 (23rd of 32) to -0.2 (31st).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Browns at 7.8 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Browns' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Browns' entire schedule.
The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Browns won 24-10 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Browns are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Browns here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Browns 68%, Raiders 32%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Browns contracts a buy at 63c or below and Raiders contracts a buy at 27c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Browns on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE
- Market-implied (Browns)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Browns)
- 68%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Browns at 63c or below, or the Raiders at 27c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Raiders vs Browns trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Browns | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Browns — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Browns in Week 12?
Our power-rating model picks the Browns by 6.5 points, a 68% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Browns 22, Raiders 15 on a ratings-implied 37.0-point total. The Browns rate 26th of 32 (-2.3) and the Raiders 32nd (-6.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Browns have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 6.5-point line or the 68% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Browns?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Browns at 63c or below, or the Raiders at 27c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Browns host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH.
What does the model project for the Browns and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Browns at 7.8 wins (favored in 6) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Browns?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Browns at 63c or below or the Raiders at 27c or below, off a 6.5-point line.
Can you trade Raiders vs Browns on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 12 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV29LVCLE. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Browns?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Browns at 68% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 12 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 12 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale