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Home/NFL/Week 6/Steelers vs Buccaneers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 6 · 2026

Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (OT)

Final. Buccaneers' next game: Buccaneers vs Falcons, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (OT) — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Steelers by 2.5 (59% to win); the Steelers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Steelers at 56c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (OT)Final / OT

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Steelers by 2.5 (59% to win). The Steelers won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Steelers: 0c — we archived the Steelers at 56c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 56c on Oct 18. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 6 · 2026-10-19

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Steelers moneylineModel 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on PIT — kept as the pre-game record.56c59%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 in overtime: Aaron Rodgers rallied Pittsburgh from 16-3 down in the fourth quarter and hit Germie Bernard for the winner

Tampa Bay led 13-3 at halftime and 16-3 going into the fourth quarter behind rookie Jalon Daniels, starting for the injured Baker Mayfield. Then Daniels threw two fourth-quarter interceptions, Chris Boswell kicked three field goals in the quarter including a 58-yarder, and Chase McLaughlin’s 53-yarder with eight seconds left only forced overtime. Rodgers finished a 12-play, 70-yard overtime drive with a six-yard touchdown to Bernard, and Jalen Ramsey’s fourth-down sack ended it. DraftKings opened Tampa Bay a 1.5-point favorite and closed it a 2.5-point underdog, with the total falling from 45.5 to 37.5; Pittsburgh won by seven, and 45 points finished over the close and just under the open.

Steelers 26—Buccaneers 19

Final / OT✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Tampa Bay at 41.3%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 2.5-point line, so Pittsburgh was the side it favored, and Pittsburgh won. The model’s own read was Pittsburgh by 1.85, a 0.65-point lean toward Tampa Bay, tier NONE, and the Steelers won by seven: the lean was wrong. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED, priced with Daniels in for Mayfield. The ledger holds no row on this game, so there is no position to grade. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Thirty-one visible WATCH rows went 19-12 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. The best of them was Pat Freiermuth: all six unders (2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 catches; 24.5, 39.5 and 49.5 receiving yards) won on two catches for 11 yards. Darnell Washington split his ladder on four catches for 25 yards (under 39.5 and 49.5 yards and under 4.5 catches won; under 24.5 yards and under 2.5 and 3.5 catches lost), Jaylen Warren won three of five, Bucky Irving’s rushing unders at 59.5 and 64.5 won on 46 yards, and Ted Hurst III, Chris Godwin Jr. and Rico Dowdle overs on catches all won. Kenny Gainwell’s three overs lost on one catch for seven yards, and Daniels’ rushing unders at 24.5 and 29.5 lost on 39 yards (the 39.5 rung won by half a yard). Four rows on suppressed stats (Daniels passing yards, two anytime-touchdown rows) were never displayed and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Buccaneers −1.5 → Steelers −2.5
Total
45.5 → 37.5
Moneyline
PIT +105 / TB −125 → PIT −135 / TB +114

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 8 to 37.5; the game landed on 45.

How it happened

Q2

A Rodgers interception, Emeka Egbuka from 2, and Tampa Bay up 13-3 at the half

Rodgers’ first throw of Pittsburgh’s second possession, intended for Washington, was intercepted at the Pittsburgh 39, and McLaughlin turned it into a 43-yard field goal. Daniels then led an eight-play, 60-yard drive finished by a two-yard touchdown to Egbuka early in the second quarter. Boswell missed from 48 wide left, McLaughlin added a 47-yarder, and Boswell’s 52-yarder on the last snap of the half made it 13-3.

Halftime
Buccaneers 13, Steelers 3
Boswell
48-yard miss (wide left), 52-yard make at 0:00
Sacks
Rodgers sacked 5 times in the first three quarters (AP)

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Seventeen plays, nine minutes and a 16-3 lead, then Pittsburgh’s first good drive

Tampa Bay opened the second half with a 17-play, 70-yard drive that took 9:02 and ended in McLaughlin’s 33-yard field goal for a 16-3 lead. Pittsburgh’s first two second-half possessions were three-and-outs. Its third went 68 yards in eight plays, and Rodgers found Washington for a five-yard touchdown 1:12 into the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay drive
17 plays · 70 yds · 9:02 · FG
Pittsburgh reply
8 plays · 68 yds · TD
After three
Buccaneers 16, Steelers 3

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Daylen Everette and Jamel Dean intercepted Daniels, Boswell kicked from 39, 58 and 20, and McLaughlin from 53

Everette intercepted Daniels at the Tampa Bay 45 on the third snap after the kickoff, and Boswell’s 39-yarder made it 16-13. Boswell tied it from 58 with 1:55 left, and on Tampa Bay’s second play Dean intercepted Daniels at the 43 and returned it 40 yards to the 3. Boswell’s 20-yarder put Pittsburgh ahead 19-16 with 1:21 left, but Daniels hit Hurst for 22 and 13 yards, per the AP, and McLaughlin made a 53-yarder with eight seconds left.

Boswell in the fourth
39, 58 and 20 yards
Dean return
40 yds to the TB 3
End of regulation
Steelers 19, Buccaneers 19

ESPN — play-by-play

Overtime

Twelve plays, 70 yards and Rodgers to Bernard, then Ramsey on fourth down

Pittsburgh took the overtime kickoff and drove 70 yards in 12 plays over 6:45, and Rodgers threw six yards to Bernard for the lead with 3:15 left. Daniels moved Tampa Bay 15 yards in 10 plays before Ramsey sacked him on fourth down for an 11-yard loss, per the AP. The two touchdown passes took Rodgers to 539 for his career, tying Peyton Manning for third, and DK Metcalf finished with 11 catches on 15 targets.

Final (OT)
Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19
Rodgers
33 of 49 · 253 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
Daniels
22 of 43 · 164 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT
Metcalf
11 catches · 93 yds
Total yards
PIT 300 · TB 224

AP via ESPN — Rodgers throws 2 late TD passes as Steelers storm back to beat Buccaneers 26-19 in OT

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no nfl_weekly_edges row for this game at all. Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W6_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-18/prop-reconciliation-w06.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • Two details differ between the AP story and ESPN’s play-by-play: the AP calls the winning touchdown a seven-yard throw and places Dean’s return at the Tampa Bay 2, while the play-by-play has six yards and the 3. This recap uses the play-by-play numbers.
  • The DraftKings line flipped from Tampa Bay −1.5 to +2.5 and the total fell eight points. Mayfield’s injury is the obvious candidate, but ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved it.
  • The Hurst completions on the tying drive (22 and 13 yards) and Ramsey’s fourth-down sack are taken from the AP story and were not separately checked against the play-by-play.
  • The severity of Brandin Echols’ hamstring injury (he did not return) and Mike McCarthy’s ankle (he finished the game) was not known when this was published.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Rodgers throws 2 late TD passes as Steelers storm back to beat Buccaneers 26-19 in OT

QB-adjusted: the undrafted rookie just won in Dallas, and Pittsburgh is down to three receivers

Baker Mayfield’s thumb hands Tampa Bay to Jalon Daniels for a third week, so this stays a QB-adjusted game on our board — lean capped at a WATCH, no position on the line. The difference from a week ago is that Daniels has now won a game, on the road, in prime time, without turning it over. The matchup underneath is Todd Bowles’s blitz, which arrives less often than almost anyone’s, against Aaron Rodgers, who gets rid of the ball faster against the blitz than almost anyone — throwing to a receiver room that lost two more bodies on Sunday.

Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture

Tampa Bay is QB-adjusted: Mayfield sits a third game and Daniels makes start number three

Edge: Steelers

Mayfield did not practise Wednesday with the dislocated right thumb and the club plans to start Daniels, an undrafted rookie, for a third straight week. That is the cleanest version of a quarterback change for our purposes: the starter is known, the slate volume is on him, and the market has had three weeks to price it. It does not fix the rating, which was built on Mayfield, so every number on this game is labelled QB-adjusted and we take no side. What changed is the evidence on Daniels. In Dallas he went 19-of-25 for 189 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, was sacked once, ran seven times for 23, and posted a 110.2 rating; Bucky Irving did the heavy lifting with a career-high 165 yards and two scores, and Tampa Bay won 24-16 for its first win after four one-score losses. The scouting notes still hold — he has scrambled on 16% of dropbacks over two weeks, the highest in the league, and is credited with 29% of his own pressures, also the highest — but the floor turned out to be a real NFL start. Rodgers is on the other side with three straight three-touchdown games and no injury listing at all.

Daniels, Week 5 at Dallas
19/25, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 110.2 rating · 7 rushes, 23 yds · sacked once · won 24-16
Bucky Irving, Week 5
Career-high 165 yards and 2 TD, including a 72-yard run
Baker Mayfield (right thumb)
DNP Wednesday — will miss a third straight game

Source: buccaneers.com — Bucs win at Dallas, 24-16, Week 5 2026

Steelers pass offense · Buccaneers pressure and coverage

Todd Bowles blitzes third-most and pressures 30th; Rodgers throws it in 2.44 seconds when blitzed

Edge: Steelers

The same structural fact from the Dallas game, against an even worse opponent for it. Tampa Bay sends extra rushers on 41% of dropbacks, third in the league, and generates pressure on 26.7%, which is 30th; opposing passers get the ball out in 2.65 seconds against them, second-fastest in football, because the answer to a blitz that does not arrive is to throw before it could. Rodgers is built for that — 2.69 seconds to throw overall, 2.44 when blitzed, eighth-fastest. He has nine touchdown passes on four and a half expected, which is the kind of number that regresses, but the three-game run of three-touchdown games is real. The counter is Tampa Bay’s results rather than its process: no opposing quarterback has finished above twelfth in weekly scoring against them, and the two who held the ball — Watson and Murray — both ate double-digit pressures. Rodgers will not hold it. Pittsburgh throws on 65% of snaps, third-highest, and sits fourth in pass rate over expectation, so this is the game.

Tampa Bay pass rush
41% blitz rate (3rd) · 26.7% pressure rate (30th) · opponents throw in 2.65 s (2nd fastest)
Rodgers, time to throw
2.69 s overall (12th) · 2.44 s when blitzed (8th) · 3 passing TD in each of the last three games
Touchdown regression
9 passing TD on 4.5 expected

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Steelers–Buccaneers Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

Steelers receivers · Buccaneers coverage

Metcalf, Bernard and Brandon Smith against a secondary missing Winfield and Garnes

Close to even

Both depth charts are torn at the same spot. Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek both left the Colts game hurt and McCarthy said on Wednesday that "both receivers will not be available this week"; Michael Pittman Jr. was already on injured reserve. That leaves DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and Brandon Smith as the receivers, with the tight ends and Rico Dowdle — limited Wednesday with a toe — carrying the rest. Tampa Bay cannot fully exploit it: Antoine Winfield Jr. did not practise with the rib injury that kept him out last week, Ayden Garnes did not practise with an ankle, and Benjamin Morrison was limited with a quad. The Pittsburgh side of the coverage picture is also short — Jalen Ramsey did not practise with a wrist, Jamel Dean was limited with an ankle, and DeShon Elliott is in his return window from injured reserve with McCarthy saying "it’s going to go how he goes this week." Two thin secondaries against two thin receiver rooms is the kind of game Rodgers’s release time decides.

Steelers receivers
Wilson (finger) and Skowronek (calf) ruled OUT by McCarthy · Pittman Jr. on IR · Dowdle (toe) LP
Buccaneers secondary, Wednesday
Winfield Jr. (rib) DNP · Garnes (ankle) DNP · Morrison (quad) LP
Steelers secondary, Wednesday
Ramsey (wrist) DNP · Dean (ankle) LP · Elliott (knee) LP, designated to return from IR

Source: steelers.com — Week 6 injury report (Buccaneers), both clubs (2026-10-14)

Steelers pass rush · Buccaneers pass protection

T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward against the line that allowed sixteen sacks in four games — and then one

Close to even

Through four games Tampa Bay had allowed sixteen sacks, the highest rate in football, with the leak in the interior rather than at Tristan Wirfs. Then Dallas got to Daniels once in 25 dropbacks. Part of that is Dallas — four sacks on the season going in — and part is Daniels getting the ball out and running from what he cannot escape. Pittsburgh is a different test. Watt and Heyward both took Wednesday off for rest, which is the usual Wednesday for both, and Wirfs practised in full with his knee. The one genuine question on the Pittsburgh front is Keeanu Benton, who did not practise with an ankle and is the interior rusher who would attack the guard spots Dallas and Green Bay pressured. Tampa Bay’s own identity on offense — a league-average run rate, 1.69 points a drive which is 28th, touchdowns on under half its scoring plays — means it will try to keep Daniels out of long-yardage, where Watt lives.

Tampa Bay protection, Weeks 1–4
16 sacks allowed, highest rate in the NFL · Wirfs still grading among the best tackles
Week 5 at Dallas
Daniels sacked once on 25 attempts
Pittsburgh front, Wednesday
Watt LP (rest) · Heyward DNP (rest) · Benton (ankle) DNP

Source: NFL.com — Buccaneers vs Cowboys Week 5 storylines (16 sacks allowed through four games)

What this read does not know

  • This is a QB-adjusted line and our lean on it is capped at a WATCH, so we publish no position on this game. The adjustment is one flat quarterback term — "league-average backup for the starter the rating believes in" — and it cannot know that the backup has now won a road game without a turnover. The rating is wrong about who is playing; the correction does not know how wrong.
  • Two starts are still two starts, and the second was carried by a 165-yard rushing day. Daniels’s passing line in Dallas was efficient and short; the scramble and self-pressure rates say he is still the kind of quarterback who makes his own trouble and escapes it. Whether that survives a Watt-and-Heyward front on a normal week of rest is the question, and nothing in two games answers it. Tampa Bay also took fourteen penalties in the win.
  • No designation has been filed by either club. Winfield Jr., Garnes, Ramsey, Benton, Wilson and Skowronek were all non-participants Wednesday; only the two receivers have been ruled out, by McCarthy’s word rather than by a report. Everything else lands Friday. Dowdle’s toe is the other Pittsburgh volume question.
  • Records here come from ESPN, not Pro Football Reference. PFR returned a Cloudflare challenge to every request this session. ESPN and the clubs agree — Pittsburgh 3-2 after beating Indianapolis, Tampa Bay 1-4 after the Dallas win — but the standing check against PFR was not possible.

Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: steelers.com — Week 6 injury report (Buccaneers), both clubs (2026-10-14) · buccaneers.com — Bucs win at Dallas, 24-16, Week 5 2026 · buccaneers.com — Takeaways from Buccaneers–Cowboys, Week 5 2026 · Sharp Football Analysis — Steelers–Buccaneers Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Still Curtain — Steelers’ thin receiver room takes another hit before the Buccaneers game · Athlon Sports — Steelers Week 6 Wednesday injury report and analysis · NFL.com — Buccaneers vs Cowboys Week 5 storylines (16 sacks allowed through four games) · SI — Steelers vs Buccaneers Week 6 preview (records; designation column not used) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 6 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 18
AWAY PIT -0.1
vs PIT -2.5
HOME TB +0.8
Fair (books) · TB 41% home win prob
Kalshi · TB — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Tampa, FL PASS — no position

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Steelers

59%

fair value (books)

Buccaneers

41%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

47%

Madden 27

53%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Steelers at Buccaneers How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Steelers at BuccaneersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Steelers at Buccaneers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Steelers–Buccaneers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Steelers vs Buccaneers power ratings (Week 6) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Pittsburgh Steelers-0.117thAverage
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers+0.812thAverage

    Steelers and Buccaneers season outlook

    PITTB
    Average wins9.97.3
    Make playoffs58%31%
    Win division23%28%
    Win Super Bowl2.6%2.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Steelers vs Buccaneers — player pages

    All players →

    Emeka Egbuka

    WR

    Chris Godwin Jr.

    WR

    Bucky Irving

    RB

    Jaylen Warren

    RB

    DK Metcalf

    WR

    Rico Dowdle

    RB

    Kenny Gainwell

    RB

    Baker Mayfield

    QB

    Aaron Rodgers

    QB

    Sean Tucker

    RB

    Cade Otton

    TE

    Pat Freiermuth

    TE

    Ted Hurst III

    Tez Johnson

    Darnell Washington

    Germie Bernard

    PIT Steelers D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: A 3-day rest edge, sized: Steelers at Buccaneers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (OT) — the graded call is above.

    The Buccaneers come in with 3 more days off — 10 days' rest for the Buccaneers against 7 days' rest for the Steelers. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 0.9-point ratings gap, which has the Steelers by 2, 55% to win. One input in this line is not a rating: the Buccaneers are without their usual starting quarterback (Jalon Daniels starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 5.2 points toward the Steelers — already inside the number above.

    The Steelers come in off the Colts, the Buccaneers off the Cowboys. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Buccaneers grade +1.2 on that side of the ball (3rd of 32) against a Steelers offense at -0.2 (19th) — 1.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (-0.9, 25th) meets the Steelers defense (-0.4, 14th), a 0.5-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Buccaneers at 7.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Steelers at 9.9 (favored in 10) — 2.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Buccaneers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Steelers'.

    One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Steelers won 20-18 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Buccaneers are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Steelers at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18PITTB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Steelers vs Buccaneers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT18PITTB
    Market-implied (Buccaneers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Buccaneers)
    41%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 41% for the Buccaneers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Steelers vs Buccaneers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueBuccaneersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig46% 46cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
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    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

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    Watch the breakdown: Steelers vs Buccaneers

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    Steelers vs Buccaneers — frequently asked

    Who won Steelers vs Buccaneers in Week 6?

    Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 (OT) — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Steelers by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Steelers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Steelers vs Buccaneers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Steelers by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Buccaneers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18PITTB market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Does the rest advantage change the model line?

    Barely. The Buccaneers have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 2-point line and 59% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.

    How do you take a position on Steelers vs Buccaneers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18PITTB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Buccaneers at 39c or below, or the Steelers at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Buccaneers host the Steelers?

    Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.

    What does the model project for the Buccaneers and Steelers this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 7.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Steelers at 9.9 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Steelers', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Steelers vs Buccaneers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18PITTB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Steelers vs Buccaneers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18PITTB has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 55% on a team like the Steelers?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Steelers at 55% over the Buccaneers sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Steelers moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 56%, an edge of +2.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on PIT — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Steelers: Week 7 at SaintsModel line →Buccaneers: Week 7 at PanthersModel line →

    More Week 6 matchups

    Seahawks at BroncosModel: evenTexans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7

    Full Week 6 board →Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →

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