Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Jaguars

54%

model win prob

Giants

46%

model win prob

Model line

Jaguars −1.5

Kalshi (Giants)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Jaguars — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Jacksonville Jaguars+2.74thPlayoff

New York Giants-1.125thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 11, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Giants 25th of 32 (Average tier, -1.1) and the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier, +2.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Jaguars by 1.5 — a 54% win probability for the Jaguars.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 46% (Giants) / 54% (Jaguars) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Jaguars vs Giants — frequently asked

Who is favored in Jaguars vs Giants in Week 11?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 1.5 points and gives them a 54% win probability over the Giants. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Jaguars vs Giants?

Home win probability 46% (Giants), away 54% (Jaguars). That comes from a power-rating differential of -3.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Giants rate 25th of 32 (Average tier), the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Jaguars vs Giants on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.