Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 1 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants, NFL Week 11 2026 — 54% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 3.7 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22JACNYG yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Giants at 41c or below (or Jaguars at 49c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.7
NYG
-1.0
Jaguars
54%
model win prob
Giants
46%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22JACNYGhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Giants at 41c or below, or the Jaguars at 49c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Jaguars–Giants is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Giants rate -1.0 (22nd of 32), the Jaguars +2.7 (6th) — 3.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 46%/54%, and this rates as the 2nd-closest game of the 13 in Week 11. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Giants' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Jaguars'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Giants defense at -2.1 (26th) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 1.0-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.1 (29th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Jaguars are on 7 days and the Giants are on 10 days. This is the 3rd consecutive road game for the Jaguars, following Titans. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Giants won 23-17 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jaguars at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV22JACNYG is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 46% / 54% — the tradable window is narrow: Giants at 41c or below, Jaguars at 49c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Giants — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Giants in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 1 points, a 54% win probability over the Giants. The Giants rate 22nd of 32 (-1.0) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22JACNYG yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Giants (-1.0, 22nd) and Jaguars (+2.7, 6th) are only 3.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 46%/54%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Giants?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22JACNYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 41c or below, or the Jaguars at 49c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Giants host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the New York Giants on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Giants and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Jaguars?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jaguars at 54% over the Giants sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.