NFL Power Ratings — Gridiron Edge Rating
Defense-adjusted power number for all 32 teams, with rank and tier
GER = off_pr + def_pr + st_pr
Each component is DAEPA (opponent-adjusted EPA per play) scaled to points per game. A GER of +7 means the team is expected to beat an average team by about a touchdown on a neutral field.
| # | Team | GER | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | +5.6 | Playoff |
| 2 | SEA | +5.0 | Playoff |
| 3 | LA | +4.4 | Playoff |
| 4 | BUF | +3.6 | Playoff |
| 5 | JAX | +3.2 | Playoff |
| 6 | PHI | +2.4 | Playoff |
| 7 | GB | +1.7 | Playoff |
| 8 | DET | +1.5 | Average |
| 9 | HOU | +1.4 | Average |
| 10 | DAL | +1.3 | Average |
| 11 | SF | +1.3 | Average |
| 12 | CHI | +1.1 | Average |
| 13 | DEN | +0.8 | Average |
| 14 | LAC | +0.4 | Average |
| 15 | CIN | -0.1 | Average |
| 16 | IND | -0.1 | Average |
| 17 | TB | -0.5 | Average |
| 18 | KC | -0.5 | Average |
| 19 | BAL | -1.0 | Average |
| 20 | ATL | -1.1 | Average |
| 21 | MIN | -1.3 | Average |
| 22 | CAR | -1.5 | Average |
| 23 | WAS | -1.6 | Average |
| 24 | NO | -1.6 | Average |
| 25 | PIT | -2.2 | Average |
| 26 | NYG | -2.4 | Average |
| 27 | CLE | -3.3 | Below Avg |
| 28 | NYJ | -3.9 | Below Avg |
| 29 | MIA | -4.0 | Below Avg |
| 30 | ARI | -4.1 | Below Avg |
| 31 | TEN | -5.1 | Below Avg |
| 32 | LV | -5.5 | Below Avg |
GER = Gridiron Edge Rating — expected points vs an average team on a neutral field. Season 2026, week 1.
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Related Tools
Power ratings answer the question a record can't: how good is a team once you strip out schedule luck? The Gridiron Edge Rating does it with Defense-Adjusted EPA — every play credited for the quality of the opponent — so a team that piled up yards against soft defenses doesn't get overrated, and a good team stuck in a tough division doesn't get punished.
Unlike a pure ranking, every GER maps to a market. The same number that ranks the board also prices our win-total futures, championship odds, and weekly Kalshi game edges — so "is Baltimore overrated" becomes a testable claim against the market, not a talking point.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Gridiron Edge Rating (GER)?
GER is a single power number for each team, expressed as the expected point margin against an average team on a neutral field. It is built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA) — per-play efficiency adjusted for the quality of opponents faced — over 1999–2025 play-by-play, then rolled into an offense/defense/special-teams composite.
How is this different from other public power ratings?
It is the same class of opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, but every number maps to a prediction-market contract: GER drives our win-total futures, championship odds, and Kalshi game edges. The rating is DAEPA-native — built from public play-by-play — so it passes the "available elsewhere" test and is fully publishable.
How often do the ratings update?
Weekly during the season and monthly in the off-season, as new play-by-play and roster data land. In-season the board re-derives after each slate.
Can an AI agent pull these ratings?
Yes — the same board is the nfl_power_ratings MCP tool. An agent connected to the PredictionMarketsPicks MCP server can ask for the full board, one team, or a tier and get the ranked ratings back with attribution.
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