Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 0.5 in Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 3 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.0 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 47c or below (or Texans at 43c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+2.0
IND
+0.0
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Texans
48%
model win prob
Colts
52%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
41%
Madden 27
59%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 47c or below, or the Texans at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Texans at Colts
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Colts −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Colts −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Colts −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Colts −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Colts −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Colts −7.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 more rungsColts −9.5 → Colts −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Texans–Colts is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Texans rate +2.0 (9th of 32) against +0.0 for the Colts (15th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 2.0-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Colts anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 4th-closest of the 16 games in Week 3, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.7 projected wins for the Colts against 9.3 for the Texans, favored in 10 and 12 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Texans'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.6 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Colts offense at +1.1 (11th) — 1.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 0.4-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 11, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 32-15 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Texans won 38-30 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Colts at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 52% / 48% — the tradable window is narrow: Colts at 47c or below, Texans at 43c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Colts on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND
- Market-implied (Colts)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Colts)
- 52%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Colts at 47c or below, or the Texans at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Texans vs Colts trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Colts | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Texans vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Colts in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Colts by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Texans, for a projected score of Colts 22, Texans 21 on a ratings-implied 43.0-point total. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (+0.0) and the Texans 9th (+2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Colts (+0.0, 15th) and Texans (+2.0, 9th) are only 2.0 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 52%/48%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 47c or below, or the Texans at 43c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.7 wins (favored in 10) and the Texans at 9.3 (favored in 12). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Colts?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Colts at 47c or below or the Texans at 43c or below, off a 0.5-point line.
Can you trade Texans vs Colts on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Colts?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Colts at 52% over the Texans sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 11. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Texans–Colts, Week 11 →
More Week 3 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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