Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Texans

44%

model win prob

Colts

56%

model win prob

Model line

Colts −2

Kalshi (Colts)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Colts — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Houston Texans+1.37thPlayoff

Indianapolis Colts+0.713thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 3, the Houston Texans travel to face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Colts 13th of 32 (Average tier, +0.7) and the Texans 7th (Playoff tier, +1.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Colts by 2 — a 56% win probability for the Colts.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 56% (Colts) / 44% (Texans) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC South divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC South race. Track the full division on the AFC South hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Texans vs Colts — frequently asked

Who is favored in Texans vs Colts in Week 3?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Colts by 2 points and gives them a 56% win probability over the Texans. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Texans vs Colts?

Home win probability 56% (Colts), away 44% (Texans). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Colts rate 13th of 32 (Average tier), the Texans 7th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Texans vs Colts on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.