Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 0.5 in Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 3 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.9 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 47c or below (or Texans at 43c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+1.8
IND
-0.1
Texans
48%
model win prob
Colts
52%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUINDhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 47c or below, or the Texans at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Texans–Colts is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Texans rate +1.8 (9th of 32) against -0.1 for the Colts (15th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.9-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Colts anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 4th-closest of the 16 games in Week 3, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Colts against 9.2 for the Texans, favored in 10 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Texans'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.4 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Colts offense at +0.9 (14th) — 1.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 26th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 0.4-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 11, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 32-15 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Texans won 38-30 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Colts at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 52% / 48% — the tradable window is narrow: Colts at 47c or below, Texans at 43c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Colts in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Colts by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Texans. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (-0.1) and the Texans 9th (+1.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Colts (-0.1, 15th) and Texans (+1.8, 9th) are only 1.9 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 52%/48%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27HOUIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 47c or below, or the Texans at 43c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Texans at 9.2 (favored in 11). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Colts?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Colts at 52% over the Texans sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 11. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Texans–Colts, Week 11 →
More Week 3 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.