Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 2.5 (59% to win); the Falcons won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the 49ers at 57c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 2.5 (59% to win). The Falcons won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the 49ers: -13c — we archived the 49ers at 70c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 57c on Oct 25. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
San Francisco came to Atlanta 6-0 and left with four turnovers, two Brock Purdy interceptions and two lost fumbles, against none for the Falcons. Penix completed 25 of 34 for 213 yards and touchdowns to Nick Muse, Kyle Pitts Sr. and Drake London, and Atlanta scored 13 points off the takeaways. Christian McCaffrey scored on the opening drive and then left with a thigh injury, finishing with seven carries for 39 yards. DraftKings opened San Francisco a 4.5-point favorite and closed it at 2.5; Atlanta won by nine, and 49 points landed between the opening 47.5 and the closing 49.5.
49ers 20—Falcons 29
Final✗ Call missedThe chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had San Francisco at 58.75% (Atlanta 41.25%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 2.5-point line. Atlanta won. The quarterback gate read PASS. The model’s own read was San Francisco by 1.8, a 0.7-point lean toward the Falcons, tier NONE, and the Falcons won outright: the lean was right. The ledger held no row on this game. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Six visible WATCH rows went 4-2 and are graded apart, never folded into the record: Austin Hooper over 0.5 catches and over 4.5 receiving yards won (two for 21), Kyle Juszczyk over 1.5 catches won (three), and Penix under 9.5 rushing yards won (five carries, minus 1). Penix under 1.5 touchdown passes lost (three), and Zachariah Branch over 1.5 catches lost (one). Seven rows on suppressed stats (five passing-yards rows on Penix and Purdy, two anytime-touchdown rows) were never displayed and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 2 to 49.5; the game landed on 49.
Q1
McCaffrey caught two passes for 40 yards on the opening drive and finished it with a fourth-down leap from the 1. Zachariah Branch returned the ensuing kickoff to the San Francisco 36, which set up Nick Folk’s 39-yard field goal. McCaffrey left on the 49ers’ next series with a thigh injury and was used sparingly after halftime.
Q2
Black ran 30 yards for a touchdown on the first play of the second quarter to make it 14-3. Penix answered with a 1-yard touchdown to Muse (Folk missed the extra point), and Black lost a fumble at the Atlanta 29 that Gervon Dexter Sr. recovered. Atlanta then took 4:20 for Folk’s 33-yarder as the half expired.
Q3
Penix hit Pitts from 5 yards on the opening drive of the second half for Atlanta’s first lead, 19-14. Jessie Bates III intercepted Purdy at the Atlanta 10 on the next series, and the Falcons went 90 yards in 11 plays, finished early in the fourth quarter by Penix’s 21-yard touchdown to London.
Q4
A replay review took away Purdy’s apparent 23-yard touchdown to Jordan Watkins, and Za’Darius Smith sacked him on fourth down. Purdy’s 1-yard touchdown to Juszczyk made it 26-20 with 5:05 left, but Eddy Pineiro missed the extra point, his fourth miss of the season. Rookie linebacker Kendal Daniels intercepted Purdy with 2:34 left, setting up Folk’s 31-yarder, and recovered George Kittle’s fumble inside the final minute; “Too sloppy to win,” Kyle Shanahan said.
Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Michael Penix Jr. throws 3 TD passes, Falcons force 4 turnovers to give 49ers first loss, 29-20
The Falcons’ defense is the most lopsided unit on the slate: first in the league in expected points allowed per rush, twenty-eighth in passing yards allowed. San Francisco arrives 6-0 and short a receiving corps, five days after a Monday night game and three time zones east. The game turns on whether the 49ers can throw at the hole in Atlanta’s defense with the personnel they have left.
49ers pass offense · Falcons coverage
Atlanta is built to stop the run and has done it better than anyone — first in the league in expected points allowed per rush, second in rushing yards allowed — while conceding 252 passing yards a game, twenty-eighth. That is a defense you are supposed to throw at, and San Francisco’s receiving room is in pieces: Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson and De’Zhaun Stribling are out, Christian Kirk is contested between sources, and Mike Evans left the Week 6 win with an Achilles injury and has not been ruled out. What San Francisco does have is Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, both available — which is a passing game that works through the middle of the field rather than outside it, and the middle is where a run-first front like Atlanta’s is thinnest in coverage.
Source: SI — The biggest question for every NFL game in Week 7 (2026-10-22)
Falcons run offense · 49ers defense
San Francisco allows 18.3 points a game, fifth in the league, and 90.2 rushing yards. But Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Mykel Williams and most of the secondary did not practice on Wednesday, and the nature of the Bosa and Trent Williams absences was not established anywhere we could reach. Atlanta’s one dependable thing is running the football: third-most rushing yards in the league by raw total at 5.1 a carry, which is the best yards-per-carry figure among the top five rushing teams. If San Francisco’s front is short, this is the matchup that decides whether a 6-0 team on a five-day turnaround across three time zones gets to play the kind of game it wants.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
Neither Purdy nor Penix appears on the Week 7 injury report, so the gate passes and no quarterback adjustment applies to either side. Atlanta’s report is unusual in shape: only two DNPs (Billy Bowman Jr., Divine Deablo) against ten limited players, including A.J. Terrell, Avieon Terrell, C.J. Henderson, Za’Darius Smith, Samson Ebukam, Brian Robinson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Beaux Collins and Michael Jerrell. A limited list that long on a Wednesday usually means a modified session rather than ten separate injuries, and we could not establish which it is. San Francisco’s is the opposite — eleven DNPs, two limited — and the injury-description column on the league report renders blank, so for most of those names we have participation and nothing else.
Source: Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 schedule and results (2026-10-21)
Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: SI — The biggest question for every NFL game in Week 7 (2026-10-22) · NFL.com — official Week 7 2026 injury report · Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 opponent stats (2026-10-21) · Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 season index, records (2026-10-21) · Pro-Football-Reference — 2026 schedule and results (2026-10-21) · NFL.com — 2026 team offense rushing · CBS Sports — 2026 standings (2026-10-22)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
SF
+2.7
ATL
-0.5
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49ers
59%
fair value (books)
Falcons
41%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
58%
Madden 27
42%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 — the graded call is above.
These two have played 82 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is 7-4 to the Falcons since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: -0.5 against +2.7, 49ers by 2, 55% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.8 (2nd of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.1 (9th) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (-0.3, 20th) meets the 49ers defense (-1.7, 21st), a 1.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the 49ers grade +0.6, 6th in the league, against -0.1 (30th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Falcons at 7.9 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the 49ers at 11.9 (favored in 14) — 4.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Falcons' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the 49ers'.
On the calendar, the 49ers are on 6 days and the Falcons are on 7 days. The Falcons are 3 games into a home stand. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The 49ers at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25SFATL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 41% for the Falcons. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Falcons | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 43% 43c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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San Francisco 49ers 20, Atlanta Falcons 29 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Falcons won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the 49ers by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Falcons. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25SFATL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Our records hold 82 meetings, 2 of them in the playoffs. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 7-4 for the Falcons over 11 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25SFATL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Falcons at 39c or below, or the 49ers at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
San Francisco 49ers visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Falcons at 7.9 wins (favored in 6) and the 49ers at 11.9 (favored in 14). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Falcons' schedule and 4th-hardest on the 49ers', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25SFATL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25SFATL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 57%, an edge of +1.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 57% on SF — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.5
Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5
Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3
Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5
Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4
Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5
Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1
Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5
Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5
Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5
Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5
Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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