Skip to content
THE 7 ORACLESPowered by PredictionMarketsPicks
Pro
NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

Home/NFL/Week 3/Bengals vs Steelers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026AFC North rivalry

Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30

Final. The rematch: Steelers vs Bengals, Week 10 →Upset: Steelers closed +154 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 3.5 (62% to win); the Steelers won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bengals at 62c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 3.5 (62% to win). The Steelers won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Bengals: -2c — we archived the Bengals at 64c on Sep 21; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 62c on Sep 27. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game is a pass: a great game at a bad price. Fourteen other calls inside.

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 3 · 2026-09-28

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Bengals moneylineModel 62% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 62% on CIN — kept as the pre-game record.62c62%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Pittsburgh 30, Cincinnati 27: Rodgers threw for 292 and three scores, Boswell kicked the winner from 33, and Harmon knocked the ball from Burrow inside the last minute

A week after a three-point night against New England, Aaron Rodgers went 19 of 34 for 292 with touchdowns to Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek and DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren ran for 127 on a shoulder that kept him out of Saturday’s walkthrough, and Pittsburgh put up 411 yards on the defense that had carried Cincinnati’s 2-0 start. Joe Burrow answered with 282 and three touchdowns of his own, but a muffed punt set up the tying field goal and, with the Bengals in Pittsburgh territory in the final minute, Derrick Harmon’s only sack of the day knocked the ball loose and Sebastian Joseph-Day fell on it.

Bengals 27—Steelers 30

Final✗ Call missed

The chip on this page reads a miss and the model’s own read was right, and the house’s position was on the third side of that argument — the same one the chip took. The stored probability had Pittsburgh at 37.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 3.5-point Cincinnati line — so the chip picked the Bengals, and the Steelers won: a miss. The model’s own read was Pittsburgh by 1.9, the right team, a 5.4-point HIGH lean toward the Steelers, who won by three and covered. And the position in the ledger was Cincinnati. 2026_03_CIN_PIT_moneyline is a MODERATE row on the Bengals, entered at 54.5c on Wednesday 2026-09-16 when the anchored line was Cincinnati by 2.5: 41.25% Pittsburgh against a Kalshi price of 45.5c, a 4.25-point edge to Cincinnati. It closed at 60.5c — a CLV of plus 6c — and lost. Saturday’s article had already stopped calling it: by then the Bengals moneyline was “priced dead on, 62 against 62,” and the game was a Pass. The second ledger row is the one worth understanding. 2026_03_CIN_PIT_total is a LOW under at the 40.5 rung (ticker KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP27CINPIT-41) on which the model’s own total was 40.9 — above the strike — yet its 51.1% on the over sat under Kalshi’s 56c, a 4.9-point edge to the under, the NO side costing 47.5c on Friday 2026-09-25 with the YES at 52.5c and the YES closing 56.5c, CLV minus 4c. Fifty-seven points cleared the over by sixteen and a half. That is a loss on a row whose own centre pointed the other way. The player board did better here than anywhere on the slate: two visible calls, both Pat Freiermuth unders, both HIGH, both cleared — under 49.5 receiving yards (the YES at 30.5c, so the NO cost 69.5c; YES closed 32.5c, CLV minus 2c) on 30 yards, and under 4.5 receptions (the YES at 38.5c, NO 61.5c; YES closed 36.5c, CLV plus 2c) on two catches. The article had passed on the 3.5 rung as a flagged conflict; on the final board that rung was WATCH and resolved under as well. Twenty-one WATCH rows went 12-9 and are graded apart.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bengals −1.5 → Bengals −3.5
Total
47.5 → 42.5
Moneyline
CIN −115 / PIT −105 → CIN −185 / PIT +154

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 5 to 42.5; the game landed on 57.

How it happened

Q1

Rodgers to Wilson for 38 on the fourth play of the game, and to Skowronek from 23 with 52 seconds left in the quarter

Pittsburgh went 73 yards in four plays and 1:50, Rodgers hitting Wilson for a 38-yard touchdown. Cincinnati answered with an 11-play, 73-yard drive and Ja’Marr Chase from three, and Pittsburgh went 86 yards in eleven plays to Skowronek from 23. Fourteen-seven after a quarter, with a rookie first-round pick, Max Iheanachor, starting at right tackle for a line that had let Rodgers be sacked four times a week earlier.

After one
Steelers 14, Bengals 7
Rodgers
19/34 · 292 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Pittsburgh offense
411 yds · 7.0 per play

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

McPherson from 50, Boswell from 44, Battle’s interception, and Higgins from 28 with 34 seconds left

Evan McPherson’s 50-yarder and Chris Boswell’s 44-yarder traded, 17-10. Jordan Battle then intercepted Rodgers and returned it 11 yards, and Burrow needed five plays and 1:06 to go 53 yards, finding Tee Higgins from 28 with 34 seconds left. Seventeen apiece at the half; Burrow would finish 28 of 37 without an interception.

Halftime
Steelers 17, Bengals 17
Burrow
28/37 · 282 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Chase / Higgins
9-98-1 · 6-90-1

ESPN — box score

Q3

A roughing-the-punter penalty kept the Metcalf drive alive: 24-20

Cincinnati opened the half with twelve plays for McPherson’s 38-yarder and a 20-17 lead. Pittsburgh’s next drive should have ended in a punt; a roughing-the-punter penalty extended it, and eleven plays and 74 yards later Rodgers found Metcalf from six. Warren’s 127 yards came at 7.5 a carry with a 35-yard long, and Rodgers spread the ball to nine receivers, Darnell Washington’s 47-yard catch-and-run the biggest.

Warren
17 carries · 127 yds; 3 rec · 49 yds
Pittsburgh third down
7 of 12
Washington
3 rec · 67 yds, long 47

ESPN — AP recap

Q4

Gesicki from 25, a muffed punt, Warren’s trip inside the 10, Boswell from 33, and Harmon’s strip

Burrow hit Mike Gesicki from 25 for 27-24 with 13:29 left. Ke’Shawn Williams then muffed a punt deep in Cincinnati territory and Boswell tied it from 36. Pittsburgh went 77 yards in eight plays from its own 8 — an 80-plus-yard Warren run was wiped out by a Metcalf hold, and Warren later tripped over his own feet running free inside the 10 — and settled for Boswell from 33 with 2:15 left. Cincinnati reached Pittsburgh territory; Harmon hit Burrow, the ball came out, Joseph-Day recovered. Burrow: “Trying to take a shot at the end zone, trying not to take the sack, trying to get the ball out, (and I) fumbled it.”

Boswell
3/3 FG (44, 36, 33)
Cincinnati turnovers
2 (Williams muffed punt, Burrow fumble)
Pittsburgh sacks
1 — Harmon

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has graded this game’s positions: 2026_03_CIN_PIT_moneyline graded LOSS (minus 55c) and 2026_03_CIN_PIT_total graded LOSS (minus 48c) at 2026-09-28 00:55 UTC (20:55 ET Sunday), via the canonical settle pass (gridiron_edge/scripts/capture_edge_clv.py --season 2026 --week 3 --mode settle --tables game), run by Cowork once Kalshi had finalized the contracts — the same code the Tue/Wed launchd schedule runs. Both grades match the outcome stated above; the P/L figure is the ledger’s number, not this page’s. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The Cincinnati moneyline row was entered 2026-09-16 at an anchored line of Cincinnati by 2.5; by Saturday the article said the Kalshi price and the anchored probability had converged and the page carried no lean. What a reader saw at kickoff was not a Cincinnati position. The ledger row is still a loss and is reported as one.
  • The total row is LOW tier. Whether a LOW-tier under was displayed on any public board before kickoff was not verified; the article did not mention it.
  • The time of Boswell’s winning field goal: the AP says 2:18 remaining, ESPN’s scoring log says 2:15. The log is used. Where Burrow’s fumble happened is not stated — ESPN’s drive chart ends the Cincinnati possession at the Pittsburgh 38, the AP says “on the fringe of McPherson’s range.”
  • The muffed punt spot is taken from ESPN’s drive chart (Pittsburgh’s next possession started at the Cincinnati 14). A Pittsburgh cornerback was evaluated for a concussion after colliding with Williams on that play; the AP and ESPN spell his surname differently and he is not named here.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (66,816) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the entries and closes quoted are the ledger’s captures, the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grades are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-27. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Aaron Rodgers outduels Joe Burrow as the Steelers edge the Bengals 30-27 on a late Boswell kick · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

The league’s best defense by EPA against the league’s second-worst offense by points

Cincinnati is 2-0 with the top defense in football by EPA; Pittsburgh is 1-1 and has not reached 300 total yards in either game. The counterweight is T.J. Watt, who is second in the NFL in sacks and is the one reason a Steelers team averaging 11.5 points a game has stayed in both of them. Joe Burrow had a soreness scare on Wednesday morning and then practised in full.

Steelers pass rush · Bengals protection

T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith against Cincinnati’s protection

Edge: Steelers

Watt has 3.5 sacks, second-most in the league through two weeks, and Highsmith has three more behind him. Pittsburgh has forced four turnovers in two games while its offense has gone nowhere, which is the entire shape of this team: the defense creates the short field, the offense fails to use it. Cincinnati’s answer is a quarterback who was on the injury wire Wednesday morning and off it by Wednesday afternoon.

T.J. Watt
3.5 sacks — 2nd in the NFL
Alex Highsmith
3 sacks
Steelers takeaways
4 in two games

Source: bengals.com — Scouting report: Steelers preview, Week 3

Bengals defense · Steelers offense

Cincinnati’s defense against an offense averaging 11.5 points

Edge: Bengals

The Bengals lead the league in defensive EPA at −30.12 and held Houston’s running backs to 18 yards on 14 carries last week. Pittsburgh is averaging 11.5 points a game, second-fewest in the league, and its passing offense ranks fourth-worst at 175 yards a game. Cincinnati will be doing it without two interior defensive linemen from Wednesday’s practice — Jonathan Allen (knee, characterised as a rest day) and B.J. Hill (Achilles) — which is the one place this matchup could turn.

Bengals defensive EPA
−30.12 — 1st in the NFL
Steelers scoring
11.5 PPG — 2nd-fewest
Steelers passing offense
175 yds/game — 4th-worst

Source: bengals.com — Scouting report: Steelers preview, Week 3

Steelers pass offense · Bengals secondary

DK Metcalf against DJ Turner II, with the catch rate collapsing

Edge: Bengals

Metcalf has caught eight of nineteen targets for 67 yards with three drops — a 42.1 percent catch rate that is the clearest single symptom of Pittsburgh’s passing problem. He draws DJ Turner II, whose coverage history against him is the kind of thing team sites bring up for a reason. Cincinnati is also short a receiver of its own: Andrei Iosivas had thumb ligament surgery this week.

DK Metcalf, two games
8 rec on 19 targets, 67 yds, 3 drops (42.1%)
Andrei Iosivas
Thumb ligament surgery this week
Rico Dowdle (toe)
Ruled OUT Friday
Jaylen Warren (shoulder)
Questionable (Friday)

Source: bengals.com — Week 3 injury report: Bengals at Steelers

What this read does not know

  • Joe Burrow’s Wednesday was a scare that resolved inside a day, and we cannot fully close it. The club flagged soreness in the morning without saying whether it related to the back issue from Week 2; he then practised in full, said "I felt good, felt good — still getting better, but I’m feeling good," and does not appear on the injury report. That is a clean outcome on the day. It is not the same as the issue being gone.
  • Aaron Rodgers’s practice participation was never itemised — he is simply absent from the report, which is strong evidence of health but not an explicit full-participation line.
  • Friday settled Pittsburgh’s backfield only partly. Rico Dowdle (toe) is OUT and Jaylen Warren (shoulder) is questionable, so the Steelers could be down to their third back. Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) is questionable and Joey Porter Jr. was still limited in the latest official report. Cincinnati lists B.J. Hill doubtful; Dexter Lawrence did not practise and Andrei Iosivas had thumb surgery.
  • One secondary outlet had Pittsburgh at 0-2 ; the club’s own site confirms 1-1. Where reporting conflicted, we used the team.
  • We publish no position on this game — the model rows for it sit in held stat families on a run with a systemic one-way lean. See the week’s handoff.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: bengals.com — Week 3 injury report: Bengals at Steelers · bengals.com — Scouting report: Steelers preview, Week 3 · Yahoo Sports — “Sore” Bengals QB Joe Burrow practices ahead of Week 3 · steelers.com — Steelers fall to Patriots 20-3 · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 27
AWAY CIN +1.9
vs CIN -3.5
HOME PIT -0.1
Fair (books) · PIT 38% home win prob
Kalshi · PIT — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Pittsburgh, PA PASS — no position

This one's been played. Get the full Week 3 card free, every remaining game priced against the market.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Bengals

62%

fair value (books)

Steelers

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

44%

Madden 27

56%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

Go Pro · 26% off your first year

Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr

Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.

Go Pro →

$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.

Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Bengals at Steelers How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Bengals at SteelersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
    Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Bengals at Steelers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Bengals–Steelers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Bengals vs Steelers power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Cincinnati Bengals+1.98thPlayoff
    Pittsburgh Steelers-0.117thAverage

    Bengals and Steelers season outlook

    CINPIT
    Average wins10.69.9
    Make playoffs73%58%
    Win division37%23%
    Win Super Bowl5.1%2.6%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Bengals vs Steelers — player pages

    All players →

    Ja'Marr Chase

    WR

    Chase Brown

    RB

    Tee Higgins

    WR

    Joe Burrow

    QB

    Jaylen Warren

    RB

    DK Metcalf

    WR

    Rico Dowdle

    RB

    Aaron Rodgers

    QB

    Pat Freiermuth

    TE

    Mike Gesicki

    TE

    Dohnte Meyers

    Darnell Washington

    Germie Bernard

    Cam Grandy

    CIN Bengals D/ST

    Colbie Young

    Drew Sample

    Mitchell Tinsley

    Samaje Perine

    PIT Steelers D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: AFC North math: Bengals at Steelers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 — the graded call is above.

    Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers is a AFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 10. The model has the Steelers by 2 (55%) off a -0.1 to +1.9 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +2.2 (7th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.4 (14th) — 2.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.2, 19th) meets the Bengals defense (-1.0, 15th), a 0.8-point gap.

    On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 10, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.9 projected wins for the Steelers against 10.6 for the Bengals, favored in 10 and 14 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bengals'.

    One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 34-14 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 34-12 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Steelers at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27CINPIT, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the AFC North hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Bengals vs Steelers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP27CINPIT
    Market-implied (Steelers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Steelers)
    38%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Steelers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Bengals vs Steelers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueSteelersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig39% 39cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

    Embed this game on your site

    A live tile locked to Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

    The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.

    Article width · 560×320

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026/hero"
  width="560"
  height="320"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Sidebar · 320×340

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="340"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    MPU · ad slot · 300×250

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026/mpu"
  width="300"
  height="250"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026/leaderboard"
  width="728"
  height="90"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Embed this game’s spread ladder

    A live card locked to Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

    Every NFL prediction-market widget.

    Article width · 560×300

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026/hero"
  width="560"
  height="300"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Sidebar · 320×280

    <iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="280"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Bengals vs Steelers, Week 3 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/bengals-vs-steelers-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Bengals vs Steelers

    2026 NFL Predictions, Big Brother Updates and More | Kalshi, Polymarket, Markets Advice — video thumbnail36:342026 NFL Predictions, Big Brother Updates and More | Kalshi, Polymarket, Markets AdviceAug 22, 2026FTF E12: 2026 Expert NFL Win Total Predictions: Broncos, Jags and More! — video thumbnail37:40FTF E12: 2026 Expert NFL Win Total Predictions: Broncos, Jags and More!Jul 15, 2026

    Bengals vs Steelers — frequently asked

    Who won Bengals vs Steelers in Week 3?

    Cincinnati Bengals 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Steelers won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Bengals vs Steelers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Bengals by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Steelers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27CINPIT market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    How much does a AFC North result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 10. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Steelers by 2 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Bengals vs Steelers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27CINPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 36c or below, or the Bengals at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Steelers host the Bengals?

    Cincinnati Bengals visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.

    What does the model project for the Steelers and Bengals this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 9.9 wins (favored in 10) and the Bengals at 10.6 (favored in 14). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Bengals', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Bengals vs Steelers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27CINPIT, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Bengals vs Steelers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27CINPIT has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 55% on a team like the Steelers?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Steelers at 55% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Bengals moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 62% against a market price implying 62%, an edge of +0.2 points. Model 62% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 62% on CIN — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Steelers hub →Bengals hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 3 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

    Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 3 card, market price vs our number. Free.

    No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 10. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bengals–Steelers, Week 10 →

    Next up for each team

    Bengals: Week 4 vs JaguarsModel line →Steelers: Week 4 at BrownsModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Titans at GiantsModel: evenSeahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2

    Full Week 3 board →Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

    See the in-season NFL tools →

    Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

    One of 64 games in the first-quarter report

    Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →

    More NFL model boards