2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Team Power Rankings
Points-per-game power ratings for all 32 teams. PWR = expected margin vs. an average team on a neutral field; decomposed into per-component offense, defense, and special teams on the same scale.
2026 season · Through Week 1 · How ratings are calculated →
| Rank ↑ | Team | PWR ↕ | Tier | Off PR ↕ | Def PR ↕ | ST PR ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1– |  Patriots | +5.6 | Playoff | +3.4 | +2.0 | +0.1 |
| #2▲1 |  Seahawks | +5.0 | Playoff | +2.1 | +1.9 | +1.1 |
| #3▼2 |  Rams | +4.4 | Playoff | +3.7 | +0.6 | +0.2 |
| #4▲1 |  Bills | +3.6 | Playoff | +3.2 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| #5▼1 |  Jaguars | +3.2 | Playoff | +1.6 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| #6▲2 |  Eagles | +2.4 | Playoff | +0.5 | +1.7 | +0.2 |
| #7▼1 |  Packers | +1.7 | Playoff | +2.8 | -1.4 | +0.2 |
| #8▼1 |  Lions | +1.5 | Average | +1.1 | -0.1 | +0.5 |
| #9▲1 |  Texans | +1.4 | Average | -1.2 | +2.0 | +0.6 |
| #10▼1 |  Cowboys | +1.3 | Average | +3.5 | -2.8 | +0.6 |
| #11▲2 |  49ers | +1.3 | Average | +2.5 | -2.0 | +0.8 |
| #12▼1 |  Bears | +1.1 | Average | +1.7 | -1.0 | +0.4 |
| #13▼1 |  Broncos | +0.8 | Average | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| #14– |  Chargers | +0.4 | Average | -0.6 | +0.7 | +0.3 |
| #15▲2 |  Bengals | -0.1 | Average | +0.6 | -1.4 | +0.7 |
| #16▼1 |  Colts | -0.1 | Average | +0.8 | -1.5 | +0.6 |
| #17▲1 |  Buccaneers | -0.5 | Average | +0.5 | -1.1 | +0.2 |
| #18▲1 |  Chiefs | -0.5 | Average | +0.6 | -1.5 | +0.3 |
| #19▼3 |  Ravens | -1.0 | Average | +0.3 | -1.6 | +0.4 |
| #20▲2 |  Falcons | -1.1 | Average | -0.6 | -0.7 | +0.1 |
| #21▲4 |  Vikings | -1.3 | Average | -2.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| #22▼1 |  Panthers | -1.5 | Average | -0.7 | -1.4 | +0.6 |
| #23▼3 |  Commanders | -1.6 | Average | +0.8 | -2.7 | +0.3 |
| #24▼1 |  Saints | -1.6 | Average | -1.4 | +0.0 | -0.3 |
| #25▼1 |  Steelers | -2.2 | Average | -1.2 | -1.4 | +0.4 |
| #26– |  Giants | -2.4 | Average | +0.1 | -2.6 | +0.1 |
| #27▲1 |  Browns | -3.3 | Below Avg | -4.0 | +0.8 | -0.2 |
| #28▼1 |  Jets | -3.9 | Below Avg | -2.7 | -2.4 | +1.1 |
| #29– |  Dolphins | -4.0 | Below Avg | -1.7 | -3.0 | +0.7 |
| #30▲1 |  Cardinals | -4.1 | Below Avg | -1.4 | -2.7 | -0.1 |
| #31▼1 |  Titans | -5.1 | Below Avg | -3.0 | -2.6 | +0.5 |
| #32– |  Raiders | -5.5 | Below Avg | -4.4 | -1.3 | +0.2 |
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Power rating — expected margin in points vs. an average team on a neutral field
Tier
Plain-English bucket from PWR (Elite / Contender / Playoff / Average / Below Avg / Rebuild)
Off PR
Offensive contribution in points per game above league average, opponent-adjusted
Def PR
Defensive contribution in points per game above league average, opponent-adjusted
ST PR
Special-teams contribution in points per game (narrower league-wide range ≈ ±1.4)
▲ ▼
Rank movement vs. the prior snapshot (week-over-week in-season, last-season-to-now off-season)
Where the ratings come from
All NFL stat tiles →Team passing: efficiency vs. volume
Are they good or just throwing a lot? Pass volume vs. EPA per dropback. Bubble size = passing TDs.
NFL power rankings — FAQ
What does a team’s PWR number actually mean?
PWR is a points-per-game power rating: it’s the margin, in points, we’d expect a team to win or lose by against a perfectly average team on a neutral field. A +6.0 team is six points better than average; a −4.0 team is four points worse. Because it’s on the points scale, the gap between any two teams is a direct point spread before adjusting for home field.
How is this different from a media power ranking?
Media rankings are ordinal opinions — a list from 1 to 32 with no distance between the rungs. Our ratings are cardinal and opponent-adjusted: they’re computed from Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA) over 27 seasons, so the number tells you not just who’s better but by how much, and it feeds directly into our game win probabilities and win totals.
Why are offense, defense, and special teams split out?
A team’s overall PWR is the sum of its offensive, defensive, and special-teams contributions, each measured in points per game above league average and opponent-adjusted. Splitting them shows you where a team’s edge actually comes from — a +6 team built on elite offense projects very differently in a bad-weather game than one built on defense.
How often do the rankings update, and how accurate is the model?
Off-season the board is a Bayesian preseason prior that shrinks last year’s results toward the mean; in-season it refreshes weekly as real games re-stratify the ratings. The underlying model backtests to 66.2% straight-up game accuracy across 6,218 games (2003–2025), walk-forward.
Put the ratings to work
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
See the edges behind the ratings
Pro unlocks weekly game edges, player projections, and win total futures vs. Kalshi prices.