2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Team Power Rankings
Model as of
Power ratings for all 32 teams. PWR = points per game above an average team on a neutral field, decomposed into Off PR + Def PR + ST PR on the same scale.
2026 season · Pre-season prior · How ratings are calculated → · How EA rates the same 32 rosters →
| Rank ↑ | Team | PWR ↕ | Tier | Off PR ↕ | Def PR ↕ | ST PR ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1NEW |  Patriots | +5.5 | Contender | +4.0 | +1.3 | +0.2 |
| #2NEW |  Seahawks | +5.5 | Contender | +2.3 | +1.9 | +1.2 |
| #3NEW |  Rams | +5.1 | Contender | +4.3 | +0.7 | +0.2 |
| #4NEW |  Bills | +3.8 | Playoff | +4.1 | -0.7 | +0.4 |
| #5NEW |  Packers | +3.0 | Playoff | +3.3 | -0.5 | +0.3 |
| #6NEW |  Jaguars | +2.6 | Playoff | +1.7 | 0.0 | +0.9 |
| #7NEW |  Lions | +2.5 | Playoff | +1.3 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| #8NEW |  Eagles | +2.4 | Playoff | +0.4 | +1.7 | +0.2 |
| #9NEW |  Texans | +2.0 | Playoff | -1.3 | +2.6 | +0.7 |
| #10NEW |  Bears | +1.4 | Playoff | +2.0 | -1.1 | +0.5 |
| #11NEW |  Cowboys | +1.4 | Playoff | +4.1 | -3.5 | +0.7 |
| #12NEW |  Broncos | +1.2 | Playoff | +0.6 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| #13NEW |  Ravens | +1.2 | Playoff | +1.0 | -0.3 | +0.4 |
| #14NEW |  49ers | +1.0 | Playoff | +3.1 | -3.0 | +0.9 |
| #15NEW |  Colts | +0.0 | Average | +1.1 | -1.7 | +0.7 |
| #16NEW |  Falcons | -0.4 | Average | +0.2 | -0.7 | +0.1 |
| #17NEW |  Steelers | -0.5 | Average | -0.6 | -0.4 | +0.5 |
| #18NEW |  Buccaneers | -0.6 | Average | +0.4 | -1.1 | +0.2 |
| #19NEW |  Chargers | -0.6 | Average | -0.9 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| #20NEW |  Chiefs | -0.6 | Average | -0.2 | -0.8 | +0.4 |
| #21NEW |  Bengals | -0.6 | Average | +0.7 | -2.1 | +0.8 |
| #22NEW |  Giants | -1.3 | Average | +0.8 | -2.2 | +0.1 |
| #23NEW |  Commanders | -1.5 | Average | +1.0 | -2.8 | +0.4 |
| #24NEW |  Panthers | -1.8 | Average | -0.8 | -1.7 | +0.7 |
| #25NEW |  Saints | -2.3 | Below Avg | -1.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| #26NEW |  Browns | -2.3 | Below Avg | -4.0 | +1.9 | -0.2 |
| #27NEW |  Vikings | -2.6 | Below Avg | -2.5 | -0.5 | +0.4 |
| #28NEW |  Dolphins | -3.3 | Below Avg | -1.4 | -2.7 | +0.8 |
| #29NEW |  Titans | -3.7 | Below Avg | -2.8 | -1.5 | +0.6 |
| #30NEW |  Cardinals | -3.7 | Below Avg | -0.7 | -2.9 | -0.1 |
| #31NEW |  Jets | -4.0 | Below Avg | -3.1 | -2.1 | +1.3 |
| #32NEW |  Raiders | -6.0 | Rebuild | -4.2 | -2.0 | +0.2 |
PWR
Power rating — points per game above an average team on a neutral field; PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR
Tier
Plain-English bucket from PWR (Elite / Contender / Playoff / Average / Below Avg / Rebuild)
Off PR
Offensive contribution in points per game above league average, opponent-adjusted
Def PR
Defensive contribution in points per game above league average, opponent-adjusted
ST PR
Special-teams contribution in points per game (narrower league-wide range ≈ ±1.4)
▲ ▼
Rank movement vs. the prior snapshot (week-over-week in-season, last-season-to-now off-season)
Where the ratings come from
All NFL stat tiles →Team passing: efficiency vs. volume
Are they good or just throwing a lot? Pass volume vs. EPA per dropback. Bubble size = passing TDs.
NFL power rankings — FAQ
What does a team’s PWR number actually mean?
PWR is a points-per-game power rating: it’s the margin, in points, we’d expect a team to win or lose by against a perfectly average team on a neutral field. A +6.0 team is six points better than average; a −4.0 team is four points worse. Because it’s on the points scale, the gap between any two teams is a direct point spread before adjusting for home field.
How is this different from a media power ranking?
Media rankings are ordinal opinions — a list from 1 to 32 with no distance between the rungs. Our ratings are cardinal and opponent-adjusted: they’re computed from Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA) over 27 seasons, so the number tells you not just who’s better but by how much, and it feeds directly into our game win probabilities and win totals.
Why are offense, defense, and special teams split out?
A team’s overall PWR is the sum of its offensive, defensive, and special-teams contributions, each measured in points per game above league average and opponent-adjusted. Splitting them shows you where a team’s edge actually comes from — a +6 team built on elite offense projects very differently in a bad-weather game than one built on defense.
How often do the rankings update, and how accurate is the model?
Off-season the board is a Bayesian preseason prior that shrinks last year’s results toward the mean; in-season it refreshes weekly as real games re-stratify the ratings. The underlying model backtests to 59.6% straight-up game accuracy across 3,266 games (2013–2024), walk-forward.
Put the ratings to work
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Get the weekly PWR move — which teams gained and lost ground, and what it did to their market price.
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See the edges behind the ratings
Game edges are free. Projections, win totals and championship boards are open through Week 1, and keep their top rows free after that. Pro is the layer around them — edge alerts in Discord, the cross-market scanner, Thee Oracle and agent access over MCP.