2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 6 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 6 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL Power Ratings 2026 — Points Above an Average Team on a Neutral Field
Power ratings for all 32 teams. PWR = points per game above an average team on a neutral field, decomposed into Off PR + Def PR + ST PR on the same scale.
Model as of
2026 season · After Week 5 · 80 games · How ratings are calculated → · Calibration ledger (59.6% SU · 0.236 Brier) → · Ratings vs. the market → · How EA rates the same 32 rosters →
Biggest movers since the preseason
| Rank ↑ | Team | Record ↕ | PWR ↕ | Pre PWR | Δ ↕ | Tier | Proj W ↕ | Pre W | Playoff % | Off PR ↕ | Def PR ↕ | ST PR ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1– |  Seahawks | 3-3 | +3.9 | +5.5 | −1.6 | Playoff | 9.8 | 10.8 | 61% | +0.5 | +2.2 | +1.2 |
| #2▲2 |  Patriots | 3-2 | +3.9 | +5.5 | −1.6 | Playoff | 10.6 | 10.7 | 78% | +3.0 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| #3▲2 |  Jaguars | 4-1 | +3.2 | +2.6 | +0.5 | Playoff | 11.2 | 9.4 | 83% | +1.9 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| #4▲3 |  49ers | 5-0 | +2.8 | +1.0 | +1.8 | Playoff | 12.2 | 8.9 | 89% | +3.7 | -1.5 | +0.6 |
| #5▼2 |  Rams | 2-3 | +2.6 | +5.1 | −2.5 | Playoff | 9.0 | 10.5 | 50% | +3.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| #6– |  Bills | 4-1 | +2.4 | +3.8 | −1.4 | Playoff | 10.9 | 9.9 | 76% | +4.4 | -2.5 | +0.5 |
| #7▼5 |  Bears | 3-2 | +2.2 | +1.4 | +0.8 | Playoff | 9.5 | 8.8 | 54% | +1.9 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| #8– |  Ravens | 4-1 | +1.8 | +1.2 | +0.6 | Playoff | 10.5 | 9.2 | 70% | +1.9 | -0.6 | +0.4 |
| #9▲3 |  Bengals | 3-2 | +1.5 | -0.6 | +2.1 | Playoff | 9.9 | 8.6 | 59% | +1.6 | -0.9 | +0.7 |
| #10– |  Packers | 3-2 | +1.4 | +3.0 | −1.6 | Playoff | 9.5 | 9.6 | 53% | +1.9 | -0.7 | +0.2 |
| #11▼2 |  Broncos | 4-2 | +1.3 | +1.2 | +0.1 | Playoff | 10.3 | 9.1 | 71% | +0.2 | +1.0 | +0.1 |
| #12▲1 |  Lions | 3-2 | +0.8 | +2.5 | −1.7 | Average | 9.3 | 9.8 | 51% | +2.2 | -1.9 | +0.5 |
| #13▲3 |  Texans | 1-4 | +0.8 | +2.0 | −1.2 | Average | 7.3 | 9.2 | 22% | -0.5 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| #14▼3 |  Chiefs | 4-0 | +0.4 | -0.6 | +1.0 | Average | 10.4 | 8.2 | 72% | +1.1 | -1.0 | +0.3 |
| #15▲3 |  Vikings | 5-0 | +0.0 | -2.6 | +2.7 | Average | 10.9 | 7.2 | 77% | -2.5 | +2.0 | +0.5 |
| #16▲1 |  Falcons | 2-3 | +0.0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | Average | 8.1 | 8.5 | 41% | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| #17▼3 |  Eagles | 2-3 | -0.1 | +2.4 | −2.4 | Average | 8.2 | 9.5 | 37% | -0.5 | +0.0 | +0.5 |
| #18▲5 |  Steelers | 3-2 | -0.5 | -0.5 | −0.1 | Average | 8.8 | 8.2 | 41% | -0.2 | -0.8 | +0.5 |
| #19– |  Panthers | 2-2 | -0.6 | -1.8 | +1.3 | Average | 8.2 | 7.7 | 45% | +0.8 | -1.8 | +0.5 |
| #20▲5 |  Buccaneers | 1-4 | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.0 | Average | 6.9 | 8.3 | 24% | -0.7 | -0.1 | +0.3 |
| #21▼1 |  Colts | 2-3 | -0.7 | +0.0 | −0.7 | Average | 8.0 | 8.7 | 29% | +0.1 | -1.8 | +1.0 |
| #22▼7 |  Cowboys | 2-3 | -0.8 | +1.4 | −2.2 | Average | 7.7 | 8.8 | 28% | +3.5 | -4.6 | +0.4 |
| #23▼1 |  Browns | 3-2 | -0.9 | -2.3 | +1.4 | Average | 8.9 | 7.8 | 41% | -2.4 | +1.4 | +0.2 |
| #24▼3 |  Giants | 3-1-1 | -1.0 | -1.3 | +0.3 | Average | 9.5 | 7.8 | 60% | +0.2 | -1.5 | +0.3 |
| #25▼1 |  Commanders | 1-3-1 | -1.8 | -1.5 | −0.3 | Average | 6.4 | 7.6 | 12% | +0.4 | -2.5 | +0.2 |
| #26▲3 |  Jets | 2-3 | -2.3 | -4.0 | +1.6 | Below Avg | 7.4 | 6.8 | 25% | -2.1 | -1.0 | +0.8 |
| #27▼1 |  Chargers | 0-5 | -2.6 | -0.6 | −2.0 | Below Avg | 4.9 | 8.1 | 4% | -2.9 | +0.3 | +0.0 |
| #28– |  Saints | 1-4 | -3.0 | -2.3 | −0.8 | Below Avg | 6.0 | 7.9 | 12% | -1.4 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| #29▼2 |  Raiders | 3-2 | -3.2 | -6.0 | +2.8 | Below Avg | 7.8 | 6.0 | 26% | -1.3 | -2.0 | +0.1 |
| #30– |  Cardinals | 1-4 | -4.4 | -3.7 | −0.7 | Below Avg | 5.5 | 6.6 | 4% | -0.6 | -3.8 | -0.0 |
| #31– |  Dolphins | 0-5 | -4.6 | -3.3 | −1.3 | Below Avg | 4.1 | 6.8 | 2% | -1.6 | -3.3 | +0.3 |
| #32– |  Titans | 0-5 | -4.9 | -3.7 | −1.2 | Below Avg | 4.2 | 6.9 | 2% | -2.8 | -2.3 | +0.2 |
PWR
Power rating — points per game above an average team on a neutral field; PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR
Tier
Plain-English bucket from PWR (Elite / Contender / Playoff / Average / Below Avg / Rebuild)
Off PR
Offensive contribution in points per game above league average, opponent-adjusted
Def PR
Defensive contribution in points per game above league average, opponent-adjusted
ST PR
Special-teams contribution in points per game (narrower league-wide range ≈ ±1.4)
Pre PWR / Δ
The preseason power rating, and how far PWR has moved since (PWR − Pre PWR)
Proj W / Pre W
Mean wins across the 10,000-season simulation now — every game already played locked in — and before Week 1
Playoff %
Share of the 10,000 simulated seasons in which the team makes the playoffs
▲ ▼
Rank movement vs. the prior snapshot (week-over-week in-season, last-season-to-now off-season)
The ratings at work: this week's model line vs the market
PWR differences become point spreads. Every game this week with our model line beside the market line and the gap in points, refreshed every 5 minutes.
NFL power rankings — FAQ
What does a team’s PWR number actually mean?
PWR is a points-per-game power rating: it’s the margin, in points, we’d expect a team to win or lose by against a perfectly average team on a neutral field. A +6.0 team is six points better than average; a −4.0 team is four points worse. Because it’s on the points scale, the gap between any two teams is a direct point spread before adjusting for home field.
How is this different from a media power ranking?
Media rankings are ordinal opinions — a list from 1 to 32 with no distance between the rungs. Our ratings are cardinal and opponent-adjusted: they’re computed from Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA) over 27 seasons, so the number tells you not just who’s better but by how much, and it feeds directly into our game win probabilities and win totals.
Why are offense, defense, and special teams split out?
A team’s overall PWR is the sum of its offensive, defensive, and special-teams contributions, each measured in points per game above league average and opponent-adjusted. Splitting them shows you where a team’s edge actually comes from — a +6 team built on elite offense projects very differently in a bad-weather game than one built on defense.
How often do the rankings update, and how accurate is the model?
Off-season the board is a Bayesian preseason prior that shrinks last year’s results toward the mean; in-season it refreshes weekly as real games re-stratify the ratings. The underlying model backtests to 59.6% straight-up game accuracy across 3,266 games (2013–2024), walk-forward.
How much do the ratings move after the first few weeks?
Early on, mostly the preseason board: after 5 games a team’s rating is roughly 49% preseason prior and 51% this season’s play-by-play, because a handful of games is noisy (our backtest found the preseason board alone beat the in-season sample through Week 5). The prior’s share drops every week. The projected wins, by contrast, lock in every game already played.
Put the ratings to work
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Get the weekly PWR move — which teams gained and lost ground, and what it did to their market price.
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See the edges behind the ratings
Game edges are free. Projections, win totals and championship boards keep their top rows free. Pro is the layer around them — edge alerts in Discord, the cross-market scanner, Thee Oracle and agent access over MCP.
Where the ratings come from
All NFL stat tiles →Team passing: efficiency vs. volume
2025 regular season
Are they good or just throwing a lot? Pass volume vs. EPA per dropback. Bubble size = passing TDs.