NFL Week 6 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 6 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 14 games is the Bills at 77% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 6 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
- Seahawks at Broncos — Model winner: Seahawks (55%)
- Texans at Jaguars — Model winner: Jaguars (53%)
- Bears at Falcons — Model winner: Falcons (53%)
- Ravens at Browns — Model winner: Ravens (52%)
- Titans at Colts — Model winner: Colts (66%)
- Jets at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (76%)
- Saints at Giants — Model winner: Giants (62%)
- Panthers at Eagles — Model winner: Eagles (66%)
- Steelers at Buccaneers — Model winner: Buccaneers (57%)
- Cardinals at Rams — Model winner: Rams (75%)
- Chargers at Chiefs — Model winner: Chiefs (58%)
- Bills at Raiders — Model winner: Bills (77%)
- Cowboys at Packers — Model winner: Packers (62%)
- Commanders at 49ers — Model winner: 49ers (64%)
All 14 Week 6 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Go Pro · 26% off your first payment
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, or $11.09 for the first month. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 6 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 14 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Seahawks over Broncos55%—
- Jaguars over Texans53%—
- Falcons over Bears53%—
- Ravens over Browns52%—
- Colts over Titans66%—
- Patriots over Jets76%—
- Giants over Saints62%—
- Eagles over Panthers66%—
- Buccaneers over Steelers57%—
- Rams over Cardinals75%—
- Chiefs over Chargers58%—
- Bills over Raiders77%—
- Packers over Cowboys62%—
- 49ers over Commanders64%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 6 projected scores
- SeahawksatBroncos23.3–21.444.6
- TexansatJaguars20.5–21.341.8
- BearsatFalcons23.7–24.448.0
- RavensatBrowns20.2–19.239.5
- TitansatColts19.7–25.845.5
- JetsatPatriots16.9–28.845.7
- SaintsatGiants21.1–24.845.9
- PanthersatEagles19.0–24.743.7
- SteelersatBuccaneers21.5–24.045.5
- CardinalsatRams19.2–30.649.8
- ChargersatChiefs20.6–23.243.9
- BillsatRaiders27.3–19.346.6
- CowboysatPackers25.6–29.455.0
- Commandersat49ers24.7–29.454.0
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 6 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 6 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 6 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 14 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 6 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 6 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 6 games, with its win probability. Seahawks over Broncos (55%); Jaguars over Texans (53%); Falcons over Bears (53%); Ravens over Browns (52%); Colts over Titans (66%); Patriots over Jets (76%); Giants over Saints (62%); Eagles over Panthers (66%); Buccaneers over Steelers (57%); Rams over Cardinals (75%); Chiefs over Chargers (58%); Bills over Raiders (77%); Packers over Cowboys (62%); 49ers over Commanders (64%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 6?
Projected scores, winner first: Seahawks 23.3, Broncos 21.4; Jaguars 21.3, Texans 20.5; Falcons 24.4, Bears 23.7; Ravens 20.2, Browns 19.2; Colts 25.8, Titans 19.7; Patriots 28.8, Jets 16.9; Giants 24.8, Saints 21.1; Eagles 24.7, Panthers 19.0; Buccaneers 24.0, Steelers 21.5; Rams 30.6, Cardinals 19.2; Chiefs 23.2, Chargers 20.6; Bills 27.3, Raiders 19.3; Packers 29.4, Cowboys 25.6; 49ers 29.4, Commanders 24.7. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 6 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.