NFL Week 6 2026 Results: Our Predictions Graded
Updated · market prices
Quick Answer
As of October 19, 2026, Week 6 is final. The model went 9–5 straight up and 1–1 on published positions (Kalshi vs book consensus) — every game below is graded against its final score.
Each game links to its own page with the final score and how our call held up; the full record lives on the track record.
This week: NFL Week 8 predictions.
Week 6 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 14 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Seahawks over Broncos · pre-game call59%—
- Jaguars over Texans · pre-game call59%—
- Bears over Falcons · pre-game call55%—
- Ravens over Browns · pre-game call60%—
- Colts over Titans · pre-game call72%—
- Patriots over Jets · pre-game call75%—
- Saints over Giants · pre-game call52%—
- Panthers over Eagles · pre-game call60%—
- Steelers over Buccaneers · pre-game call59%—
- Rams over Cardinals · pre-game call87%—
- Chiefs over Chargers · pre-game call75%—
- Bills over Raiders · pre-game call67%—
- Packers over Cowboys · pre-game call54%—
- 49ers over Commanders · pre-game call75%97.5¢
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
Week 6 in numbers
- 9–5 straight up for the model, every game graded below.
- 7 upsets by closing line among the 14 games recapped, led by the Cardinals at +600 (+13.5): Cardinals 18, Rams 16.
- The line moved toward the winner in 6 of 14, toward the loser in 7, flat in 1; season to date, toward the winner in 49 of 105, toward the loser in 41, flat in 15.
Biggest moves of Week 6
- Panthers at Eagles: moved 9.5 toward the Panthers (Eagles −6.5 → +3); Panthers won by 11toward winner
- Chargers at Chiefs: moved 5 toward the Chiefs (Chiefs −2.5 → −7.5); Chiefs won by 16toward winner
- Cowboys at Packers: moved 4.5 toward the Cowboys (Packers −3 → +1.5); Packers won by 10 anywaytoward loser
One line source: DraftKings, via ESPN — the opening and closing spread on each game, not a consensus of every platform. Every 2026 upset →
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 6 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Seahawks at Broncos — Final: Seahawks 14, Broncos 17 (OT) · model had Seahawks (59%, pre-game)
- Texans at Jaguars — Final: Texans 34, Jaguars 31 · model had Jaguars (59%, pre-game)
- Bears at Falcons — Final: Bears 31, Falcons 23 · model had Bears (55%, pre-game)
- Ravens at Browns — Final: Ravens 10, Browns 13 · model had Ravens (60%, pre-game)
- Titans at Colts — Final: Titans 26, Colts 20 · model had Colts (72%, pre-game)
- Jets at Patriots — Final: Jets 19, Patriots 26 · model had Patriots (75%, pre-game)
- Saints at Giants — Final: Saints 34, Giants 27 · model had Saints (52%, pre-game)
- Panthers at Eagles — Final: Panthers 25, Eagles 14 · model had Panthers (60%, pre-game)
- Steelers at Buccaneers — Final: Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT) · model had Steelers (59%, pre-game)
- Cardinals at Rams — Final: Cardinals 18, Rams 16 · model had Rams (87%, pre-game)
- Chargers at Chiefs — Final: Chargers 6, Chiefs 22 · model had Chiefs (75%, pre-game)
- Bills at Raiders — Final: Bills 33, Raiders 30 · model had Bills (67%, pre-game)
- Cowboys at Packers — Final: Cowboys 13, Packers 23 · model had Packers (54%, pre-game)
- Commanders at 49ers — Final: Commanders 17, 49ers 23 · model had 49ers (75%, pre-game)
All 14 Week 6 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.
How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →
Live: every Week 6 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 6 primetime, live
Run Week 6 yourself
All tools →Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)
Week 6 players to watch
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Watch the Week 6 breakdown
9:41How to Trade NFL Receiving Yards Props on Kalshi | Prediction Market AcademyOct 17, 2026
4:36Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market AnalysisOct 16, 2026
45:31NFL Week 6 Prediction Markets Picks: Saints vs Giants, Cowboys-Packers Over | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 15, 2026NFL Week 6 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 6 2026?
Week 6 is in progress: 14 of 14 games are final and graded on this page, and the model makes no call on the 0 remaining games. The full record lives on the track record.
How are these NFL Week 6 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 6 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 6 games, with its win probability (0 still to play; a game that has kicked off is listed as its pre-game call). Seahawks over Broncos (59%, pre-game); Jaguars over Texans (59%, pre-game); Bears over Falcons (55%, pre-game); Ravens over Browns (60%, pre-game); Colts over Titans (72%, pre-game); Patriots over Jets (75%, pre-game); Saints over Giants (52%, pre-game); Panthers over Eagles (60%, pre-game); Steelers over Buccaneers (59%, pre-game); Rams over Cardinals (87%, pre-game); Chiefs over Chargers (75%, pre-game); Bills over Raiders (67%, pre-game); Packers over Cowboys (54%, pre-game); 49ers over Commanders (75%, pre-game). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
What are the NFL Week 6 picks straight up?
Week 6 picks straight up: Seahawks over Broncos (pre-game call), Jaguars over Texans (pre-game call), Bears over Falcons (pre-game call), Ravens over Browns (pre-game call), Colts over Titans (pre-game call), Patriots over Jets (pre-game call), Saints over Giants (pre-game call), Panthers over Eagles (pre-game call), Steelers over Buccaneers (pre-game call), Rams over Cardinals (pre-game call), Chiefs over Chargers (pre-game call), Bills over Raiders (pre-game call), Packers over Cowboys (pre-game call), 49ers over Commanders (pre-game call). Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.
How often are the Week 6 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.