NFL Week 6 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · market prices
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, our Week 6 calls: 11 market favorites and 1 upset straight up. Biggest upset call: Panthers over Eagles at 54% to win (Kalshi 49.5¢). The model disagrees with the Kalshi price on 7 of 14 games; the widest gap is Panthers at 54% to win versus Kalshi's 50¢. 2 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed.
Next widest: Commanders at 25% to win versus Kalshi's 23¢; Packers at 55% to win versus Kalshi's 53¢.
Every game below carries the published win probability, the Kalshi price, and the gap between them — plus the straight-up winner and the model's lean.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 6 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
- Seahawks at Broncos — Winner: Seahawks (59%) · The play: Seahawks ≤ 57¢
- Texans at Jaguars — Winner: Jaguars (59%) · The play: Jaguars ≤ 57¢
- Bears at Falcons — QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Ravens at Browns — QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Titans at Colts — Winner: Colts (73%)
- Jets at Patriots — Winner: Patriots (75%)
- Saints at Giants — Winner: Saints (54%)
- Panthers at Eagles — Winner: Panthers (54%) · The play: Panthers ≤ 50¢
- Steelers at Buccaneers — Winner: Steelers (59%)
- Cardinals at Rams — Winner: Rams (87%)
- Chargers at Chiefs — Winner: Chiefs (76%) · The play: Chargers ≤ 22¢
- Bills at Raiders — Winner: Bills (65%) · The play: Raiders ≤ 33¢
- Cowboys at Packers — Winner: Packers (55%) · The play: Packers ≤ 53¢
- Commanders at 49ers — Winner: 49ers (75%) · The play: Commanders ≤ 23¢
All 14 Week 6 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.
This week's Oracle Forks
A starting quarterback isn't confirmed, so we publish both lines. They collapse to one when the team names its starter.
- Ravens at Browns — Lamar Jackson unconfirmed →With Lamar JacksonPick'emWithout Lamar JacksonBrowns by 4.5MarketRavens by 5.5
Live: every Week 6 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 6 primetime, live
Run Week 6 yourself
All tools →Week 6 straight-up picks
Kalshi has priced 12 of these 14 games and our published probability is anchored to the market on each, so the straight-up pick matches the market favorite by construction — that agreement is the method, not a finding. Widest disagreement this week: our own ratings line sits 4.0 points closer to the Eagles than the market's, a read we grade separately and never publish as an edge. 2 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Seahawks over Broncos59%56.5¢
- Jaguars over Texans59%56.5¢
- Bears at Falcons · QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed—51.5¢
- Ravens at Browns · QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed—68.5¢
- Colts over Titans73%74.5¢
- Patriots over Jets75%75.5¢
- Saints over Giants54%50.5¢
- Panthers over EaglesUpset54%49.5¢
- Steelers over Buccaneers59%57.5¢
- Rams over Cardinals87%87.5¢
- Chiefs over Chargers76%78.5¢
- Bills over Raiders65%67.5¢
- Packers over Cowboys55%52.5¢
- 49ers over Commanders75%77.5¢
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
CHI
+2.2
ATL
+0.0
CAR
-0.6
PHI
-0.1
WAS
-1.8
SF
+2.8
Watch the Week 6 breakdown
What moved on Kalshi since yesterday
Change in the Kalshi contract price for that side to win, in cents of probability, between the two most recent daily captures (as of October 15, 2026). A move is a price change, not a call.
NFL Week 6 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 6 2026?
The fair value (books) disagrees with the Kalshi price by 2 points net of the book's spread on 7 of 14 Week 6 games. The biggest gap is Panthers at Eagles, where the pick is the Panthers at a 54% win probability against a Kalshi price of 50¢. Every game's pick, line and edge is in the board above.
How are these NFL Week 6 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 6 game?
The model calls 11 market favorites and 1 upset straight up in Week 6. Seahawks over Broncos (59%); Jaguars over Texans (59%); Bears at Falcons (QB pending); Ravens at Browns (QB pending); Colts over Titans (73%); Patriots over Jets (75%); Saints over Giants (54%); Panthers over Eagles (54%); Steelers over Buccaneers (59%); Rams over Cardinals (87%); Chiefs over Chargers (76%); Bills over Raiders (65%); Packers over Cowboys (55%); 49ers over Commanders (75%). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
How often are the Week 6 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.