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MIDTERMS

Every 2026 race priced on Kalshi and Polymarket

Senate · House · governors

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Markets vs Pundits

What the money said, next to what the forecasters said, and how each 2026 Senate race came out. Graded on the list and the rule we published before the election.

Why this board exists: markets beat the pundits at the top of the ticket in 2024 — and lost to them down ballot, which is exactly what a midterm is.

The same split, one cycle out: markets vs. pundits on AOC 2028 — Democratic strategists say her stock is rising; both exchanges have sold her since Aug. 24.

Run every seat on this board through one simulation and the gap adds up: Kalshi vs. Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections over 10,000 simulated Senates.

The board in action, one race: why the market backed Sherrod Brown in Ohio while all three raters said toss-up — and every other Senate toss-up the market had already picked.

Quick Answer

Kalshi's favorite at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2 won 31 of 32 called 2026 Senate races. Sabato's final ratings went 30 of 32. 2 of the 34 scored races are still pending. This is a record of two published numbers and the result, not a recommendation.

Market favorite

31 of 32

Called Senate races, Kalshi at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2

Sabato final ratings

30 of 32

The same races, on the Nov. 2 ratings

Gaps over 10 points

9 of 9

Called races where the market's favorite won

Market is the favorite on the pre-registered tape, Kalshi's hourly close at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2. Sabato is the Crystal Ball's final rating, converted through the ladder below. Gap is the market's price for the rated party minus the ladder number. Sorted widest gap first.

  • North Carolina Senate

    Result: Cooper (D)

    Market
    Roy Cooper 98¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Likely D (75%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +23 pts
  • Georgia Senate

    Result: Ossoff (D)

    Market
    Jon Ossoff 97¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Likely D (75%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +22 pts
  • Michigan Senate

    Result: El-Sayed (D)

    Market
    Abdul El-Sayed 79¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Leans D (60%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +19 pts
  • New Hampshire Senate

    Result: Pappas (D)

    Market
    Chris Pappas 94¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Likely D (75%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +19 pts
  • Minnesota Senate

    Result: Flanagan (D)

    Market
    Peggy Flanagan 91¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Likely D (75%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +16 pts
  • Texas Senate

    Result: Talarico (D)

    Market
    James Talarico 74¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Leans D (60%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +14 pts
  • Maine Senate

    Result: Jackson (D)

    Market
    Troy Jackson 73¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Leans D (60%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +13 pts
  • Ohio Senate

    Result: Brown (D)

    Market
    Sherrod Brown 72¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Leans D (60%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +12 pts
  • Iowa Senate

    Result: Turek (D)

    Market
    Josh Turek 53¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Leans R (60%)
    Missed
    Gap
    -11 pts
  • Alaska Senate

    Result: votes still being counted

    Market
    Democratic 71¢
    Pending
    Sabato
    Leans D (60%)
    Pending
    Gap
    +11 pts
  • Florida Senate

    Result: Moody (R)

    Market
    Ashley Moody 85¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Likely R (75%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +10 pts
  • Illinois Senate

    Result: Stratton (D)

    Market
    Juliana Stratton 100¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +10 pts
  • Oregon Senate

    Result: Merkley (D)

    Market
    Jeff Merkley 100¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +10 pts
  • Rhode Island Senate

    Result: Reed (D)

    Market
    Jack Reed 100¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +10 pts
  • Alabama Senate

    Result: Moore (R)

    Market
    Barry Moore 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • Colorado Senate

    Result: Hickenlooper (D)

    Market
    John Hickenlooper 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • Delaware Senate

    Result: Coons (D)

    Market
    Chris Coons 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • Massachusetts Senate

    Result: Markey (D)

    Market
    Ed Markey 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • New Jersey Senate

    Result: Booker (D)

    Market
    Cory Booker 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • New Mexico Senate

    Result: Luján (D)

    Market
    Ben Ray Luján 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • Oklahoma Senate

    Result: Hern (R)

    Market
    Kevin Hern 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • Virginia Senate

    Result: Warner (D)

    Market
    Mark Warner 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe D (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • West Virginia Senate

    Result: Capito (R)

    Market
    Shelley Moore Capito 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • Wyoming Senate

    Result: Hageman (R)

    Market
    Harriet Hageman 99¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +9 pts
  • Nebraska Senate

    Result: Ricketts (R)

    Market
    Pete Ricketts 68¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Leans R (60%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +8 pts
  • Mississippi Senate

    Result: votes still being counted

    Market
    Cindy Hyde-Smith 83¢
    Pending
    Sabato
    Likely R (75%)
    Pending
    Gap
    +8 pts
  • Tennessee Senate

    Result: Hagerty (R)

    Market
    Bill Hagerty 98¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +8 pts
  • South Carolina Senate

    Result: Andrews (D)

    Market
    Darline Graham 67¢
    Missed
    Sabato
    Leans R (60%)
    Missed
    Gap
    +7 pts
  • Arkansas Senate

    Result: Cotton (R)

    Market
    Tom Cotton 96¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +6 pts
  • Idaho Senate

    Result: Risch (R)

    Market
    Jim Risch 96¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +6 pts
  • Kentucky Senate

    Result: Barr (R)

    Market
    Andy Barr 96¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +6 pts
  • South Dakota Senate

    Result: Rounds (R)

    Market
    Mike Rounds 96¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +6 pts
  • Kansas Senate

    Result: Hamilton (D)

    Market
    Adam Hamilton 63¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Leans D (60%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +3 pts
  • Montana Senate

    Result: Alme (R)

    Market
    Kurt Alme 91¢
    Correct
    Sabato
    Safe R (90%)
    Correct
    Gap
    +1 pts

34 races scored, the pre-registered list. 32 are called and 2 are pending. Louisiana was set aside in September because its market was found after the list was fixed, so it is reported on its race page and not counted here.

How a rating becomes a number

The ladder, published before the election and applied unchanged. Each band reads toward the rated party:

  • Toss-up = 50%
  • Lean = 60%
  • Likely = 75%
  • Safe = 90%

2026 midterms markets vs pundits — frequently asked

Were prediction markets more accurate than pundits in 2026?

On the Senate list fixed before the election, Kalshi's favorite at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2 won 31 of 32 called 2026 Senate races. Sabato's final ratings went 30 of 32. 2 of the 34 scored races are still pending. In the 9 called races where the market and the final rating were more than 10 points apart, the market's favorite won 9.

How do you turn a rating like "Leans Democratic" into a number?

Through one published ladder, shown on the page: toss-up is 50 percent, a lean is 60, likely is 75, and safe is 90, expressed toward the rated party. So "Leans Democratic" becomes a 60 percent chance the Democrat wins. The ladder is deliberately coarse because the outlets publish a band and not a number. A gap under roughly 10 points is mostly an artifact of that coarseness rather than a real disagreement.

Where do the market prices and the ratings come from?

Market prices are Kalshi's hourly close at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2, 2026, the time fixed before the election. Ratings are Sabato's Crystal Ball's final 2026 ratings, published Nov. 2. Race results come from named calls by the Associated Press or Fox News, credited on each race page.

Why is Louisiana not on the scoreboard?

Louisiana's market was found after the race list was fixed, so it was set aside in September. It is reported on its race page and not counted, which keeps the denominator the one published in advance.

Is this a trading signal?

No. There is no position size, no recommendation and no edge claim anywhere on this page, and none of these rows feed a tracked record. It is a record of two published numbers and the result.

Ratings are the published work of Sabato's Crystal Ball, used here for comparison with attribution. Market prices are the Kalshi hourly close at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2, 2026. Races still counting update as they are called.