New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Bengals by 4.5 in New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals, NFL Week 12 2026 — 63% to win, and Bengals 21st of 32, Saints 26th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NOCIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bengals at 58c or below (or Saints at 32c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NO
-2.4
CIN
-0.6
Saints
37%
model win prob
Bengals
63%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NOCINhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bengals at 58c or below, or the Saints at 32c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Saints at Bengals
The Saints travel to face the Bengals in Week 12. Our power ratings put the Bengals 21st of 32 at -0.6 (Average tier) and the Saints 26th at -2.4 (Average tier) — a 1.8-point gap that home field widens to a 4.5-point line on the Bengals, 63% to win. It rates as the 5th-widest of the 16 games in Week 12.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bengals offense grades +0.7 (15th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.5 (14th) — 1.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.6, 27th) meets the Bengals defense (-2.1, 25th), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bengals grade +0.8, 5th in the league, against -0.3 (32nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Bengals against 7.7 for the Saints, favored in 7 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Saints'.
One team has owned this series: the Bengals are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Bengals won 30-26 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Bengals are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
On conditions: Cincinnati home games in November have run a median 46°F and 6 mph of wind across 9 games since 2015, with 22% at or below 40°F and a low of 37°F. Our model has no weather term, so treat that as an input it has not priced.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Bengals here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NOCIN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bengals 63%, Saints 37%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bengals contracts a buy at 58c or below and Saints contracts a buy at 32c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Saints vs Bengals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Saints vs Bengals in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Bengals by 4.5 points, a 63% win probability over the Saints. The Bengals rate 21st of 32 (-0.6) and the Saints 26th (-2.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NOCIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Saints vs Bengals?
Bengals offense (+0.7, 15th of 32) against Saints defense (-0.5, 14th) — 1.2 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Bengals (+0.8, 5th).
How do you take a position on Saints vs Bengals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NOCIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bengals at 58c or below, or the Saints at 32c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bengals host the Saints?
New Orleans Saints visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH.
What does the model project for the Bengals and Saints this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bengals at 8.6 wins (favored in 7) and the Saints at 7.7 (favored in 7). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Saints', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Bengals?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bengals at 63% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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