Kalshi vs Polymarket — Side-by-Side for US Traders (Updated June 2026)
Kalshi and Polymarket dominate prediction market trading but serve very different audiences. Here's a complete breakdown — plus the live price gaps between them on today's games.
Live Sports Price Gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Updated Jul 30, 4:15 PM ETWhere Kalshi and Polymarket price the same game differently right now. Two exchanges disagreeing on the same outcome is a genuine cross-exchange gap — unlike a sportsbook line, which bakes in vig (the house edge). A de-vigged sportsbook consensus is shown as a sharp reference: when one exchange hugs it and the other sits far off, the gap is that one venue being stale — not a true two-price arb.
| Pick | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | Sharp Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees New York Y vs Chicago WS · MLB | 51¢ | 44¢ | 7pp | — |
| St. Louis Cardinals Chicago C vs St. Louis · MLB | 63¢ | 60¢ | 4pp | — |
| San Diego Padres San Francisco vs San Diego · MLB | 59¢ | 60¢ | 1pp | 59¢ · DraftKings |
| Miami Marlins Miami vs New York M · MLB | 47¢ | 47¢ | 0pp | 46¢ · DraftKings |
| Kansas City Royals Kansas City vs Minnesota · MLB | 97¢ | 97¢ | 0pp | — |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati · MLB | 53¢ | 53¢ | 0pp | 52¢ · DraftKings |
| Washington Nationals Washington vs Atlanta · MLB | 42¢ | 42¢ | 0pp | 42¢ · DraftKings |
| Boston Red Sox Boston vs A's · MLB | 64¢ | 64¢ | 0pp | 63¢ · DraftKings |
Gaps are the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges on the same game, ranked by symmetric KL divergence. Polymarket prices come from the latest hourly snapshot; Kalshi prices are live. Sportsbook prices are de-vigged for a fair comparison. Informational only — verify resolution terms before trading.
Kalshi
Pros
- CFTC-regulated — legitimate and safe for US traders
- Available in nearly every US state
- Native iOS and Android app
- USD deposits, standard bank withdrawals
- Sports markets with CFTC approval
Cons
- 7% settlement fee on winnings (vs AMM spread)
- Lower global liquidity than Polymarket
- KYC identity verification required
Polymarket
Pros
- Highest global liquidity in prediction markets
- Extensive politics and current events markets
- Lower effective fees on large positions
- No identity verification needed
Cons
- US-restricted — significant legal risk for Americans
- Requires crypto wallet (USDC)
- No native mobile app
- Unregulated — no consumer protections
The Verdict
For US traders, Kalshi is the clear winner.It's regulated, available nationwide, and supports standard bank accounts — no crypto required. For international traders or those who prioritize maximum liquidity and don't mind the regulatory gray zone, Polymarket offers unmatched market depth. If you're getting started with prediction markets in 2026 and you're based in the US, start with Kalshi. Add Polymarket later if you need access to niche markets or want to compare pricing across platforms.
Frequently Asked Questions
Kalshi vs Polymarket: which should US traders use in 2026?
For US traders, Kalshi is the better choice in 2026: it is a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange available in nearly all 50 states, while Polymarket is restricted for US residents and carries legal risk. Polymarket offers deeper global liquidity on politics, so international traders may prefer it — but Americans who want a regulated, USD-based platform should start with Kalshi.
Is Kalshi available in the US?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange available to US traders in nearly all 50 states. It operates under federal commodity trading law, making it legally distinct from sports betting.
Can US users trade on Polymarket?
No. Polymarket is restricted to US users. It is a decentralized, crypto-based prediction market that has previously faced CFTC regulatory action. US residents trading on Polymarket do so at significant legal risk.
Which has better liquidity, Kalshi or Polymarket?
Polymarket generally has higher global liquidity on politics and major events, often exceeding $50M in open interest on single contracts. Kalshi's liquidity is growing rapidly and is better regulated, making it the safer choice for US traders.
What markets does Kalshi offer vs Polymarket?
Both platforms cover politics, economics, and current events. Kalshi has CFTC approval for sports markets and interest rate contracts. Polymarket tends to have a wider range of niche and crypto-adjacent markets given its permissionless nature.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket fees compare?
Kalshi charges a fee on settlement (typically 7% of winnings for non-Pro users, reduced for active traders). Polymarket's fees are embedded in the AMM spread. For large trades, Kalshi can be more cost-efficient.
Can you arbitrage Kalshi against Polymarket on sports?
Sometimes. Because Kalshi and Polymarket are separate exchanges with separate order books, they can price the same game differently. When the gap between their implied probabilities is large enough to cover both platforms' fees, a cross-exchange position can lock in an edge. Gaps are usually small and close fast, so they are most common close to game time. Our live table tracks the current Kalshi–Polymarket sports gaps.
Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for NBA, MLB, and World Cup games?
Neither is consistently cheaper — it varies game to game and minute to minute. The cheaper side to buy YES is whichever exchange currently shows the lower implied probability for that outcome. Both are far tighter than a sportsbook, which adds 4–6% vig on top. For US traders, Kalshi is the practical choice: it is CFTC-regulated and available nationwide, while Polymarket is restricted for US residents.
How is a cross-exchange gap different from a sportsbook line?
A sportsbook line includes vig — the house edge baked into the price, typically 4–6%, that you pay on top of the true probability. A gap between two prediction-market exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket is not vig; it is a genuine disagreement between two near-efficient markets. That makes a Kalshi–Polymarket gap a real signal, whereas a sportsbook's wider price is mostly the house margin.
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