Kalshi vs Polymarket US — Side-by-Side for US Traders (Updated October 2026)
Kalshi and Polymarket dominate prediction market trading but serve very different audiences. Here's a complete breakdown — plus the live price gaps between them on today's games.
If you're asking which one to use, here's the short answer: for most US-based traders, Kalshi is the practical default because it is CFTC-regulated with the broadest slate, while Polymarket US — live since December 2025 and available in every state except Nevada — lists a narrower slate. On overlapping sports contracts, our live tracker has shown the two exchanges disagree on implied probability by roughly 2–4% on a typical game night. Caveat: that gap moves game to game and can close within minutes, so treat it as a signal to check live, not a fixed edge.
Live: where it's cheaper after fees
as of Oct 29, 6:30 AM ET · ask + taker fee, per contractNo upcoming game is priced on two US venues right now. The scan runs every 15 minutes.
Polymarket US is the venue US traders use; the international book is a separate order book and is never marked cheaper here. Novig and the midterms: best price today →
What each trade actually costs
Three venues, three fee models. Kalshi and Polymarket US both charge a per-contract taker fee at the fill, scaled by price × (1 − price), so the fee peaks on a 50¢ coin flip and shrinks toward zero at the extremes — and it is paid whether the position wins or loses. The international Polymarket book charges no trading fee on most markets; its cost is the spread you cross.
Kalshi
7% × price × (1 − price)
per contract, rounded up to the cent per fill · max 1.75¢ · resting orders pay nothing on most markets
Fee schedule · read 2026-09-23
Polymarket US
6.95% × price × (1 − price)
per contract, taker · max $1.74 per 100 at 50¢ · maker rebate only at $10M+/month
Fee schedule · read 2026-10-22
Polymarket.com (view-only for US users)
no trading fee on most markets
the cost is the bid–ask spread you cross, ~2% on a liquid game · view-only for US users
the book PMP quotes prices from
| Contract price | Kalshi / contract | Kalshi on $100 | Polymarket US / contract | Polymarket US on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 0.33¢ | $6.65 | 0.33¢ | $6.60 |
| 10¢ | 0.63¢ | $6.30 | 0.63¢ | $6.25 |
| 20¢ | 1.12¢ | $5.60 | 1.11¢ | $5.56 |
| 30¢ | 1.47¢ | $4.90 | 1.46¢ | $4.87 |
| 40¢ | 1.68¢ | $4.20 | 1.67¢ | $4.17 |
| 50¢ | 1.75¢ | $3.50 | 1.74¢ | $3.48 |
| 60¢ | 1.68¢ | $2.80 | 1.67¢ | $2.78 |
| 70¢ | 1.47¢ | $2.10 | 1.46¢ | $2.09 |
| 80¢ | 1.12¢ | $1.40 | 1.11¢ | $1.39 |
| 90¢ | 0.63¢ | $0.70 | 0.63¢ | $0.69 |
| 95¢ | 0.33¢ | $0.35 | 0.33¢ | $0.35 |
Taker fee per contract and on a $100 stake (11 prices). Per-fill rounding to the cent is not shown; a resting (maker) order pays nothing on most Kalshi markets and on Polymarket US earns a rebate only above $10M of monthly maker volume. 7% and 6.95% are the published rates on the dates above — fees change, check the venue before sizing.
Price your own fill
The Kalshi fee calculator, inline — price, contracts, taker or maker. Full breakdown, breakeven and round-trip on the tool page →
Fee curve (always free to view)
| Contract price | Taker fee / contract | Maker fee / contract |
|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 0.33¢ | 0.08¢ |
| 10¢ | 0.63¢ | 0.16¢ |
| 20¢ | 1.12¢ | 0.28¢ |
| 30¢ | 1.47¢ | 0.37¢ |
| 40¢ | 1.68¢ | 0.42¢ |
| 50¢peak | 1.75¢ | 0.44¢ |
| 60¢ | 1.68¢ | 0.42¢ |
| 70¢ | 1.47¢ | 0.37¢ |
| 80¢ | 1.12¢ | 0.28¢ |
| 90¢ | 0.63¢ | 0.16¢ |
| 95¢ | 0.33¢ | 0.08¢ |
Fees follow 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent per fill. The 50¢ coin flip is the most expensive place to trade (1.75¢/contract taker); deep favorites and longshots are nearly free. Maker fees are 25% of taker. Verified 2026-09-23 — Kalshi's official schedule governs; special-event markets (elections, championships) can differ.
Interactive fee calculator
The YES (or NO) price you're paying, 1–99¢
Break-even is the price the contract must reach just to cover the entry fee — you need the market to move at least 1.75¢ in your favor before the trade is profitable. Round-trip assumes you exit at the same price; a winning contract settling at 100¢ pays no exit fee.
Live Sports Price Gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Updated Oct 29, 6:30 AM ETWhere Kalshi and Polymarket price the same game differently right now. Two exchanges disagreeing on the same outcome is a genuine cross-exchange gap — unlike a sportsbook line, which bakes in vig (the house edge). A de-vigged sportsbook consensus is shown as a sharp reference: when one exchange hugs it and the other sits far off, the gap is that one venue being stale — not a true two-price arb.
| Pick | Kalshi | Polymarket (intl book) | Gap | Sharp Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors · NBA | 33¢ | 37¢ | 4pp | — |
| Miami Heat Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat · NBA | 67¢ | 68¢ | 2pp | — |
| Washington Wizards Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards · NBA | 53¢ | 54¢ | 1pp | — |
| Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics · NBA | 83¢ | 84¢ | 1pp | — |
| Brooklyn Nets Detroit Pistons vs Brooklyn Nets · NBA | 26¢ | 25¢ | 1pp | — |
| Houston Rockets Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks · NBA | 61¢ | 60¢ | 1pp | — |
Gaps are the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges on the same game, ranked by symmetric KL divergence. Polymarket prices are the INTERNATIONAL order book (the one PMP ingests; Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own prices) from the latest hourly snapshot; Kalshi prices are live. Sportsbook prices are de-vigged for a fair comparison. Informational only — verify resolution terms before trading.
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Kalshi
Pros
- CFTC-regulated exchange
- Available in nearly every US state
- Native iOS and Android app
- USD deposits, standard bank withdrawals
- CFTC-regulated sports markets
Cons
- Per-contract taker fee at the fill, paid win or lose (vs a spread-only international book)
- Lower global liquidity than Polymarket
- KYC identity verification required
Polymarket
Pros
- Highest global liquidity in prediction markets
- Extensive politics and current events markets
- Lower effective fees on large positions
- No identity verification needed
Cons
- US access via Polymarket US only — narrower slate; every state except Nevada
- Requires crypto wallet (USDC)
- No native mobile app
- Unregulated — no consumer protections
Weekly NFL player props
Polymarket lists no weekly NFL player props — only season-long leader and award markets — so there is no Polymarket column on a weekly board. Kalshi’s weekly ladder is priced against the sportsbooks and the exchanges on the prop market board — 2,513 strikes this week.
NFL season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket.com, widest gaps
Updated Oct 29, 5:50 AM ETThe same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket.com mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.
| Player · market | Kalshi | Polymarket.com | Gap | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRushing touchdowns leader | 13.0¢ | 22.5¢ | -9.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| Joe BurrowPassing touchdowns leader | 18.5¢ | 25.0¢ | -6.5¢ | Kalshi → |
| Dak PrescottPassing yards leader | 7.5¢ | 2.1¢ | +5.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordPassing touchdowns leader | 6.5¢ | 11.5¢ | -5.0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Dexter Lawrence IIDefensive Player of the Year | 6.0¢ | 1.9¢ | +4.1¢ | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving yards leader | 63.5¢ | 59.5¢ | +4.0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenMVP | 30.5¢ | 34.5¢ | -4.0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrencePassing touchdowns leader | 3.5¢ | 7.3¢ | -3.8¢ | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceMVP | 5.5¢ | 2.4¢ | +3.2¢ | Kalshi → |
| Christian McCaffreyRushing touchdowns leader | 7.5¢ | 10.6¢ | -3.1¢ | Kalshi → |
Full season-leader board — 235 players priced on both venues across 11 markets →
Polymarket.com prices are the international book. US Users: Featured Price Not Available; Informational Use Only.
The Verdict
For US traders, Kalshi is the clear winner. It's CFTC-regulated, has the broadest slate, and supports standard bank accounts — no crypto required. Outside the US, Polymarket.com offers deep market depth. If you're getting started with prediction markets in 2026 and you're based in the US, start with Kalshi. Add Polymarket US later if you want a second venue or want to compare pricing across platforms.
Kalshi vs Polymarket — frequently asked
Kalshi vs Polymarket: which should US traders use in 2026?
For US traders, Kalshi is still the better default in 2026 — on coverage, not legality. It is a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange with the broadest slate. Polymarket US is open to US traders too: a CFTC-regulated exchange live since December 2025, available in every state except Nevada, that settles in USD but carries a narrower slate. Polymarket.com, the international book, has the deeper global politics liquidity and is view-only for US users, so its prices are a reference rather than a venue most Americans can trade.
Is Kalshi available in the US?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange. Availability varies by state, and some states restrict its sports contracts. It operates under federal commodity trading law, making it legally distinct from sports betting.
Can US users trade on Polymarket?
Yes — through Polymarket US, a CFTC-regulated exchange that opened to US traders in December 2025. It settles in dollars, requires full identity verification, and is available in every state except Nevada; it lists a narrower slate than Kalshi. Polymarket.com, the international book, is a separate on-chain venue and is view-only for US users, so the two do not share an order book.
Which has better liquidity, Kalshi or Polymarket?
Polymarket generally has higher global liquidity on politics and major events, often exceeding $50M in open interest on single contracts. Kalshi's liquidity is growing rapidly. Both Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges; Polymarket.com is view-only for US users.
What markets does Kalshi offer vs Polymarket?
Both platforms cover politics, economics, and current events. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and lists sports and interest-rate contracts. Polymarket.com, the international book, tends to have a wider range of niche and crypto-adjacent markets given its permissionless nature.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket fees compare?
Kalshi charges a taker fee on each fill — 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, at most 1.75¢ on a 50¢ contract — paid at entry whether the position wins or loses; there is no settlement fee, and resting orders pay nothing on most markets. Polymarket's international order book charges no trading fee on most markets, so its cost is the spread you cross; Polymarket US, a separate exchange, charges a taker fee of the same shape (6.95% × price × (1 − price)). At 50¢ that is $3.50 per $100 on Kalshi against roughly $2 of spread on the international book.
How much does a $100 trade cost on Kalshi vs Polymarket?
At 50¢, a $100 stake buys 200 contracts. Kalshi's taker fee is $3.50 (1.75¢ × 200), paid at the fill win or lose. Polymarket US charges $3.48 on the same trade (6.95% × 0.5 × 0.5 × 200). The international Polymarket book charges no trading fee on most markets — you pay the spread you cross, about $2 on a typical liquid game. At 90¢ the same $100 buys 111 contracts and Kalshi's fee falls to 70¢, because the fee scales with price × (1 − price). Sources: Kalshi fee schedule read 2026-09-23; Polymarket US schedule read 2026-10-22.
Can you arbitrage Kalshi against Polymarket on sports?
Sometimes. Because Kalshi and Polymarket are separate exchanges with separate order books, they can price the same game differently. When the gap between their implied probabilities is large enough to cover both platforms' fees, a cross-exchange position can lock in an edge. Gaps are usually small and close fast, so they are most common close to game time. Our live table tracks the current Kalshi–Polymarket sports gaps.
Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for NBA, MLB, and World Cup games?
Neither is consistently cheaper — it varies game to game and minute to minute. The cheaper side to buy YES is whichever exchange currently shows the lower implied probability for that outcome. Both are far tighter than a sportsbook, which adds 4–6% vig on top. For US traders, Kalshi is the practical choice: it is CFTC-regulated with the broadest slate, while Polymarket US lists fewer markets and Polymarket.com is view-only for US users.
How is a cross-exchange gap different from a sportsbook line?
A sportsbook line includes vig — the house edge baked into the price, typically 4–6%, that you pay on top of the true probability. A gap between two prediction-market exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket is not vig; it is a genuine disagreement between two near-efficient markets. That makes a Kalshi–Polymarket gap a real signal, whereas a sportsbook's wider price is mostly the house margin.
Compare by sport
Live price gaps between the two exchanges on the same game, ranked by KL divergence:
Related comparisons
Compare fees properly: what $100 actually returns on six venues, win or lose. Free.
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