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Kalshi vs Polymarket — Side-by-Side for US Traders (Updated June 2026)

Kalshi and Polymarket dominate prediction market trading but serve very different audiences. Here's a complete breakdown — plus the live price gaps between them on today's games.

If you're asking which one to use, here's the short answer: for most US-based traders, Kalshi is the practical default because it is CFTC-regulated and available in nearly all 50 states, while Polymarket US — live since December 2025 — is still rolling out state by state and lists a narrower slate. On overlapping sports contracts, our live tracker has shown the two exchanges disagree on implied probability by roughly 2–4% on a typical game night. Caveat: that gap moves game to game and can close within minutes, so treat it as a signal to check live, not a fixed edge.

Live Sports Price Gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket

Updated Sep 14, 5:00 AM ET

Where Kalshi and Polymarket price the same game differently right now. Two exchanges disagreeing on the same outcome is a genuine cross-exchange gap — unlike a sportsbook line, which bakes in vig (the house edge). A de-vigged sportsbook consensus is shown as a sharp reference: when one exchange hugs it and the other sits far off, the gap is that one venue being stale — not a true two-price arb.

Pick	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap	Sharp Book
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles D vs Cincinnati · MLB	68¢	67¢	1pp	—
Atlanta Falcons CAR Panthers vs ATL Falcons · NFL	49¢	48¢	1pp	—
Chicago Bears MIN Vikings vs CHI Bears · NFL	70¢	69¢	1pp	—
San Diego Padres San Diego vs Colorado · MLB	63¢	63¢	1pp	—
Chicago White Sox Chicago WS vs Cleveland · MLB	42¢	42¢	0pp	—
New York Yankees New York Y vs Minnesota · MLB	56¢	56¢	0pp	—
San Francisco Giants San Francisco vs St. Louis · MLB	45¢	45¢	0pp	—
Miami Marlins Miami vs Arizona · MLB	45¢	45¢	0pp	—

Gaps are the difference in implied probability between the two exchanges on the same game, ranked by symmetric KL divergence. Polymarket prices come from the latest hourly snapshot; Kalshi prices are live. Sportsbook prices are de-vigged for a fair comparison. Informational only — verify resolution terms before trading.

Trade on Kalshi →See the full live scanner + alerts (Pro)

Feature

Kalshi

Polymarket

US Availability

~50 states

US: state-by-state

Regulation

CFTC-regulated

Unregulated (crypto)

Liquidity

Growing rapidly

Highest global

Sports Markets

Yes (CFTC approved)

Limited

Politics Markets

Yes

Yes (extensive)

Mobile App

iOS & Android

Mobile web only

Fees

7% on winnings

AMM spread (~2%)

Withdrawal Speed

1–3 business days

Crypto instant / fiat slow

Min. Deposit

$10

Crypto wallet required

Account Verification

KYC required

None (crypto-based)

Kalshi

Pros

CFTC-regulated — legitimate and safe for US traders
Available in nearly every US state
Native iOS and Android app
USD deposits, standard bank withdrawals
Sports markets with CFTC approval

Cons

7% settlement fee on winnings (vs AMM spread)
Lower global liquidity than Polymarket
KYC identity verification required

Polymarket

Pros

Highest global liquidity in prediction markets
Extensive politics and current events markets
Lower effective fees on large positions
No identity verification needed

Cons

US access via Polymarket US only — narrower slate, state by state
Requires crypto wallet (USDC)
No native mobile app
Unregulated — no consumer protections

Weekly NFL player props

Polymarket lists no weekly NFL player props — only season-long leader and award markets — so there is no Polymarket column on a weekly board. Kalshi’s weekly ladder is priced against the sportsbooks and the exchanges on the prop market board — 3,885 strikes this week.

NFL season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps

Updated Sep 14, 4:50 AM ET

The same player, the same season-long question, two prediction-market prices. Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the Polymarket mid in cents — where the two venues disagree most on who leads the league or wins the award.

NFL season leaders: Kalshi vs Polymarket, widest gaps — Kalshi mid, Polymarket mid, and the gap in cents per player
Player · market	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap	Trade
Puka NacuaReceiving touchdowns leader	3.5¢	12.0¢	-8.5¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Justin HerbertPassing yards leader	8.0¢	1.5¢	+6.5¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving yards leader	6.5¢	12.5¢	-6.0¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving touchdowns leader	3.5¢	8.5¢	-5.0¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Caleb WilliamsMVP	11.5¢	16.2¢	-4.7¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Puka NacuaReceiving yards leader	13.5¢	18.0¢	-4.5¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing touchdowns leader	7.5¢	3.2¢	+4.3¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
De'Von AchaneRushing yards leader	3.5¢	7.5¢	-4.0¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Dak PrescottMVP	3.5¢	7.3¢	-3.8¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →
Joe BurrowMVP	8.5¢	5.7¢	+2.8¢	Kalshi → · Polymarket →

Full season-leader board — 153 players priced on both venues across 9 markets →

Polymarket prices are from the international book. Polymarket US is a separate exchange with its own order book — verify the price there before taking a position.

The Verdict

For US traders, Kalshi is the clear winner. It's regulated, available nationwide, and supports standard bank accounts — no crypto required. For international traders or those who prioritize maximum liquidity and don't mind the regulatory gray zone, Polymarket offers unmatched market depth. If you're getting started with prediction markets in 2026 and you're based in the US, start with Kalshi. Add Polymarket later if you need access to niche markets or want to compare pricing across platforms.

Frequently Asked Questions

Kalshi vs Polymarket: which should US traders use in 2026?

For US traders, Kalshi is still the better default in 2026 — on coverage, not legality. It is a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange available in all 50 states with the broadest slate. Polymarket is open to US traders too, via Polymarket US, a CFTC-designated exchange live since December 2025 that settles in USD but carries a narrower slate and expands state by state. Polymarket’s international book has the deeper global politics liquidity and is closed to US persons, so its prices are a reference rather than a venue most Americans can trade.

Is Kalshi available in the US?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange available to US traders in nearly all 50 states. It operates under federal commodity trading law, making it legally distinct from sports betting.

Can US users trade on Polymarket?

Yes — through Polymarket US, a CFTC-designated exchange that opened to US traders in December 2025. It settles in dollars, requires full identity verification, and rolls out state by state, so it lists a narrower slate than Kalshi. Polymarket’s original international book is a separate on-chain venue and remains closed to US persons, so the two do not share an order book.

Which has better liquidity, Kalshi or Polymarket?

Polymarket generally has higher global liquidity on politics and major events, often exceeding $50M in open interest on single contracts. Kalshi's liquidity is growing rapidly and is better regulated, making it the safer choice for US traders.

What markets does Kalshi offer vs Polymarket?

Both platforms cover politics, economics, and current events. Kalshi has CFTC approval for sports markets and interest rate contracts. Polymarket tends to have a wider range of niche and crypto-adjacent markets given its permissionless nature.

How do Kalshi and Polymarket fees compare?

Kalshi charges a fee on settlement (typically 7% of winnings for non-Pro users, reduced for active traders). Polymarket's fees are embedded in the AMM spread. For large trades, Kalshi can be more cost-efficient.

Can you arbitrage Kalshi against Polymarket on sports?

Sometimes. Because Kalshi and Polymarket are separate exchanges with separate order books, they can price the same game differently. When the gap between their implied probabilities is large enough to cover both platforms' fees, a cross-exchange position can lock in an edge. Gaps are usually small and close fast, so they are most common close to game time. Our live table tracks the current Kalshi–Polymarket sports gaps.

Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for NBA, MLB, and World Cup games?

Neither is consistently cheaper — it varies game to game and minute to minute. The cheaper side to buy YES is whichever exchange currently shows the lower implied probability for that outcome. Both are far tighter than a sportsbook, which adds 4–6% vig on top. For US traders, Kalshi is the practical choice: it is CFTC-regulated and available nationwide, while Polymarket US covers fewer states and its international book is closed to US persons.

How is a cross-exchange gap different from a sportsbook line?

A sportsbook line includes vig — the house edge baked into the price, typically 4–6%, that you pay on top of the true probability. A gap between two prediction-market exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket is not vig; it is a genuine disagreement between two near-efficient markets. That makes a Kalshi–Polymarket gap a real signal, whereas a sportsbook's wider price is mostly the house margin.