Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 3 in Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL Week 17 2026 — 60% to win, and Buccaneers 18th of 32, Rams 3rd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Buccaneers at 35c or below (or Rams at 55c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAR
+5.1
TB
-0.6
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Rams
60%
model win prob
Buccaneers
40%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
58%
Madden 27
42%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Buccaneers at 35c or below, or the Rams at 55c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Rams at Buccaneers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buccaneers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buccaneers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buccaneers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Buccaneers −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsBuccaneers −6.5 → Buccaneers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Week 17 warning: what the Buccaneers line does not know
Week 17 is where the standings start doing the talking, and the model does not know what either team will still be playing for. It prices the Rams by 3 (60%) from ratings alone — -0.6 for the Buccaneers, +5.1 for the Rams. Late-season numbers are the least reliable of the year for exactly that reason: a team that has locked its seed and a team with nothing left both play differently than the ratings assume. Treat this as a starting point, then check what is actually at stake.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Rams at 10.6 (favored in 16) — 2.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Buccaneers' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Rams'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.3 (1st of 32) against a Buccaneers defense at -1.1 (20th) — 5.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.4, 18th) meets the Rams defense (+0.7, 7th), a 0.3-point gap.
Recent history, for context only: 14 regular-season meetings since 2002, 9-5 in the Rams' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Rams won 34-7 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Buccaneers are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 8 Tampa Bay home games in January since 2015, the median temperature was 66°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Rams here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Buccaneers 40%, Rams 60%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Buccaneers contracts a buy at 35c or below and Rams contracts a buy at 55c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Buccaneers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB
- Market-implied (Buccaneers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Buccaneers)
- 40%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Buccaneers at 35c or below, or the Rams at 55c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Rams vs Buccaneers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Buccaneers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Rams vs Buccaneers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs Buccaneers in Week 17?
Our power-rating model picks the Rams by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Buccaneers, for a projected score of Rams 26, Buccaneers 23 on a ratings-implied 49.1-point total. The Buccaneers rate 18th of 32 (-0.6) and the Rams 3rd (+5.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Do Week 17 lines account for teams resting starters?
Ours does not. The model prices the Rams by 3 from 2026 power ratings and home field, with no knowledge of playoff seeding, elimination, or who is being held out. Late-season contracts often move on exactly that information, so treat this number as the ratings baseline and check what each team still has to play for before taking a position.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Buccaneers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Buccaneers at 35c or below, or the Rams at 55c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Buccaneers host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, January 3, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 17, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
What does the model project for the Buccaneers and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7) and the Rams at 10.6 (favored in 16). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Rams vs Buccaneers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Buccaneers at 35c or below or the Rams at 55c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Rams vs Buccaneers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 17 game market is KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LARTB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Rams?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Rams at 60% over the Buccaneers sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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