Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 8.5 in Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 10 2026 — 74% to win, and the 1st-widest model gap in Week 10. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SEALV yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Raiders at 21c or below (or Seahawks at 69c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SEA
+5.2
LV
-5.8
Seahawks
74%
model win prob
Raiders
26%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SEALVhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Raiders at 21c or below, or the Seahawks at 69c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Why the model has the Seahawks by 8.5
The visitors are the ones with the rating edge, and it is big enough that home field does not touch it. The Seahawks grade +5.2 (3rd of 32) to -5.8 for the Raiders (32nd); even after handing the Raiders their 2.5 points, the line is Seahawks by 8.5 and 74% to win. Road favorites of this size are the 1st-widest gap on the 14-game Week 10 board. The caution is the usual one: a preseason rating knows nothing about who is healthy in the back half of the season.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Seahawks grade +1.8 on that side of the ball (4th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 5.9 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 4.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.2 (23rd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16) — 5.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 15th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2022: Raiders won 40-34 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 74% Seahawks number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SEALV — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Seahawks YES is only worth buying at 69c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 74%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Raiders at 21c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Raiders in Week 10?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 8.5 points, a 74% win probability over the Raiders. The Raiders rate 32nd of 32 (-5.8) and the Seahawks 3rd (+5.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SEALV yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 8.5-point line comes from a 11.0-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 13.5-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 26% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Raiders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15SEALV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 21c or below, or the Seahawks at 69c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 5.6 wins (favored in 1) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 15th-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 74% on a team like the Seahawks?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Seahawks at 74% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 8.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 10 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 10 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.