Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Thursday, November 26, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Bears

42%

model win prob

Lions

58%

model win prob

Model line

Lions −2.5

Kalshi (Lions)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Lions — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Chicago Bears+0.711thAverage

Detroit Lions+0.910thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 12, the Chicago Bears travel to face the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, Detroit, MI. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Lions 10th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Bears 11th (Average tier, +0.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Lions by 2.5 — a 58% win probability for the Lions.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 58% (Lions) / 42% (Bears) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC North divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC North race. Track the full division on the NFC North hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Lions — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bears vs Lions in Week 12?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Lions by 2.5 points and gives them a 58% win probability over the Bears. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bears vs Lions?

Home win probability 58% (Lions), away 42% (Bears). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Lions rate 10th of 32 (Average tier), the Bears 11th (Average tier).

Can you trade Bears vs Lions on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.