Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
Thursday, November 26, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 3.5 in Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 12 2026 — 62% to win, and a NFC North game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 57c or below (or Bears at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CHI
+1.4
DET
+2.5
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Bears
38%
model win prob
Lions
62%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
35%
Madden 27
65%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 57c or below, or the Bears at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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NFC North math: Bears at Lions
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 17. The model has the Lions by 3.5 (62%) off a +2.5 to +1.4 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.3 (10th of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Lions defense (+0.7, 6th), a 1.3-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11) — 1.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Bears'.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — one of 3 that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Lions 62%, Bears 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Lions contracts a buy at 57c or below and Bears contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bears vs Lions on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET
- Market-implied (Lions)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Lions)
- 62%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Lions at 57c or below, or the Bears at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Bears vs Lions — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bears vs Lions in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Lions by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Bears. The Lions rate 7th of 32 (+2.5) and the Bears 10th (+1.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 17. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Lions by 3.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bears vs Lions?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 57c or below, or the Bears at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Lions host the Bears?
Chicago Bears visit the Detroit Lions on Thursday, November 26, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 12, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
What does the model project for the Lions and Bears this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Bears', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Lions?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Lions at 57c or below or the Bears at 33c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Bears vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 12 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV26CHIDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Lions?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Lions at 62% over the Bears sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 17. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bears–Lions, Week 17 →
More Week 12 matchups
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