NFL Week 3 2026 Results: Our Predictions Graded
Updated · market prices
Quick Answer
As of September 28, 2026, Week 3 is final. The model went 8–8 straight up and 4–9 on published positions (Kalshi vs book consensus) — every game below is graded against its final score.
Each game links to its own page with the final score and how our call held up; the full record lives on the track record.
This week: NFL Week 8 predictions.
Week 3 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games, graded below against the final scores. Each row shows the pre-game call.
- Packers over Falcons · pre-game call65%—
- Bills over Chargers · pre-game call73%—
- Panthers over Browns · pre-game call57%—
- Lions over Jets · pre-game call72%—
- Texans over Colts · pre-game call55%—
- Jaguars over Patriots · pre-game call59%—
- Chiefs over Dolphins · pre-game call81%—
- Giants over Titans · pre-game call59%—
- Bengals over Steelers · pre-game call62%—
- Seahawks over Commanders · pre-game call76%—
- 49ers over Cardinals · pre-game call75%—
- Vikings over Buccaneers · pre-game call55%—
- Ravens over Cowboys · pre-game call62%—
- Saints over Raiders · pre-game call62%—
- Rams over Broncos · pre-game call59%—
- Eagles over Bears · pre-game callUpset62%40.5¢
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
Week 3 in numbers
- 8–8 straight up for the model, every game graded below.
- 8 upsets by closing line among the 16 games recapped, led by the Commanders at +320 (+8.5): Commanders 33, Seahawks 31.
- The line moved toward the winner in 6 of 16, toward the loser in 8, flat in 2; season to date, toward the winner in 49 of 106, toward the loser in 42, flat in 15.
Biggest moves of Week 3
- Seahawks at Commanders: moved 5 toward the Seahawks (Commanders +3.5 → +8.5); Commanders won by 2 anywaytoward loser
- Chargers at Bills: moved 4.5 toward the Bills (Bills −2.5 → −7); Bills won by 8toward winner
- Eagles at Bears: moved 4.5 toward the Eagles (Bears −1.5 → +3); Bears won by 20 anywaytoward loser
One line source: DraftKings, via ESPN — the opening and closing spread on each game, not a consensus of every platform. Every 2026 upset →
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 3 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Falcons at Packers — Final: Falcons 35, Packers 14 · model had Packers (65%, pre-game)
- Chargers at Bills — Final: Chargers 16, Bills 24 · model had Bills (73%, pre-game)
- Panthers at Browns — Final: Panthers 18, Browns 21 · model had Panthers (57%, pre-game)
- Jets at Lions — Final: Jets 24, Lions 31 · model had Lions (72%, pre-game)
- Texans at Colts — Final: Texans 17, Colts 19 · model had Texans (55%, pre-game)
- Patriots at Jaguars — Final: Patriots 6, Jaguars 35 · model had Jaguars (59%, pre-game)
- Chiefs at Dolphins — Final: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10 · model had Chiefs (81%, pre-game)
- Titans at Giants — Final: Titans 7, Giants 12 · model had Giants (59%, pre-game)
- Bengals at Steelers — Final: Bengals 27, Steelers 30 · model had Bengals (62%, pre-game)
- Seahawks at Commanders — Final: Seahawks 31, Commanders 33 · model had Seahawks (76%, pre-game)
- Cardinals at 49ers — Final: Cardinals 30, 49ers 36 · model had 49ers (75%, pre-game)
- Vikings at Buccaneers — Final: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16 · model had Vikings (55%, pre-game)
- Ravens at Cowboys — Final: Ravens 34, Cowboys 31 · model had Ravens (62%, pre-game)
- Raiders at Saints — Final: Raiders 35, Saints 27 · model had Saints (62%, pre-game)
- Rams at Broncos — Final: Rams 26, Broncos 30 · model had Rams (59%, pre-game)
- Eagles at Bears — Final: Eagles 7, Bears 27 · model had Eagles (62%, pre-game)
All 16 Week 3 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Every game, one article
NFL Week 3 picks: the best play from every game
One call for all 15 games, taken off each game page, with the level to rest at, a scale-in ladder and the price where we walk away.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.
How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →
Live: every Week 3 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 3 primetime, live
Run Week 3 yourself
All tools →Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)
Week 3 players to watch
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
The Oracles on this market
Watch the Week 3 breakdown
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Who does the model pick in NFL Week 3 2026?
Week 3 is in progress: 16 of 16 games are final and graded on this page, and the model makes no call on the 0 remaining games. The full record lives on the track record.
How are these NFL Week 3 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 3 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 3 games, with its win probability (0 still to play; a game that has kicked off is listed as its pre-game call). Packers over Falcons (65%, pre-game); Bills over Chargers (73%, pre-game); Panthers over Browns (57%, pre-game); Lions over Jets (72%, pre-game); Texans over Colts (55%, pre-game); Jaguars over Patriots (59%, pre-game); Chiefs over Dolphins (81%, pre-game); Giants over Titans (59%, pre-game); Bengals over Steelers (62%, pre-game); Seahawks over Commanders (76%, pre-game); 49ers over Cardinals (75%, pre-game); Vikings over Buccaneers (55%, pre-game); Ravens over Cowboys (62%, pre-game); Saints over Raiders (62%, pre-game); Rams over Broncos (59%, pre-game); Eagles over Bears (62%, pre-game). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
What are the NFL Week 3 picks straight up?
Week 3 picks straight up: Packers over Falcons (pre-game call), Bills over Chargers (pre-game call), Panthers over Browns (pre-game call), Lions over Jets (pre-game call), Texans over Colts (pre-game call), Jaguars over Patriots (pre-game call), Chiefs over Dolphins (pre-game call), Giants over Titans (pre-game call), Bengals over Steelers (pre-game call), Seahawks over Commanders (pre-game call), 49ers over Cardinals (pre-game call), Vikings over Buccaneers (pre-game call), Ravens over Cowboys (pre-game call), Saints over Raiders (pre-game call), Rams over Broncos (pre-game call), Eagles over Bears (pre-game call). Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.
How often are the Week 3 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.