New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Patriots

61%

model win prob

Dolphins

39%

model win prob

Model line

Patriots −4

Kalshi (Dolphins)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New England Patriots+3.81stPlayoff

Miami Dolphins-2.630thBelow Avg

The prediction-market read

In Week 8, the New England Patriots travel to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Dolphins 30th of 32 (Below Avg tier, -2.6) and the Patriots 1st (Playoff tier, +3.8). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 4 — a 61% win probability for the Patriots.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 39% (Dolphins) / 61% (Patriots) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Patriots vs Dolphins — frequently asked

Who is favored in Patriots vs Dolphins in Week 8?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 4 points and gives them a 61% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Patriots vs Dolphins?

Home win probability 39% (Dolphins), away 61% (Patriots). That comes from a power-rating differential of -6.3 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Dolphins rate 30th of 32 (Below Avg tier), the Patriots 1st (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Patriots vs Dolphins on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.