Skip to content
THE 7 ORACLESPowered by PredictionMarketsPicks
Pro
NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

Home/NFL/Week 8/Patriots vs Dolphins
Gridiron EdgeWeek 8 · 2026AFC East rivalry

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction — Week 8, Sun Nov 1

Updated · market price

Week 8 game-week updates

  • · Kalshi: Dolphins 24¢ to win, −20¢ since the market opened October 20, 2026.

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Quick Answer

As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 24% for the Dolphins in New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 8 2026, while the market line has the Patriots by 7 (73% to win) — a 3.3pp gap. Value side: the Dolphins. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Patriots by 5.0 against a market line of Patriots by 7.0 — a 2.2-point lean toward the Dolphins, graded separately from any position.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 8 · 2026-10-30

1 actionable market of 2 priced — largest edge 3.3pp on Dolphins moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Drake Maye UNDER 1.5 Pass TDsProvenance-limited row — the disagreement is real but our input is not confirmed. Not a play.44.4cMODERATEPass—
Dolphins moneylineModel 27% vs market 24% on MIA.Market-anchored fair value: MIA 28% (+4.0pp)23.5c27%Position1.1%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • 1 row downgraded to WATCH: the disagreement is real but our projection input is provenance-limited.

New England’s passing offense outclasses a Miami team with almost no pass rush

New England is 4-3 after a 30-24 loss at Chicago in which Drake Maye threw for 321 yards. Miami is 1-5 but just won for the first time, 28-25 at the Jets, behind Malik Willis, who replaced Tua Tagovailoa this offseason. The Patriots have the sturdier passing game and far more sacks; the Dolphins’ path runs through the ground and through their own mistake-free football. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.

Quarterback gate · Wednesday practice reports

Injury and practice picture

Close to even

The quarterback gate reads PASS on both sides. Drake Maye (right shoulder) and Malik Willis (groin) were both full participants Wednesday. Willis’s groin is a new issue on top of earlier toe and thumb problems, which is worth watching through Friday. New England’s wrinkle is receiver A.J. Brown, limited again with the ankle he hurt in Week 1; he has been full only once in seven practices since returning. Tackle Morgan Moses (foot) was limited for a second straight week. Miami’s report is longer: left guard Kadyn Proctor and cornerback JuJu Brents did not practice with concussions, and eight more Dolphins were limited.

Maye (NE)
Right shoulder, full Wed 10/28 — SI, 2026-10-28
Willis (MIA)
Groin, full Wed 10/28; earlier toe and thumb issues — Yahoo Sports, 2026-10-28
A.J. Brown (NE WR)
Ankle, limited; full once in seven practices since returning — SI, 2026-10-28
Concussions (MIA)
LG Kadyn Proctor and CB JuJu Brents did not practice — SI, 2026-10-28

Source: SI — Patriots Week 8 Injury Report: Great News Across the Board (2026-10-28)

Patriots passing game · Dolphins pass rush

Drake Maye against a Miami defense that rarely sacks

Edge: Patriots

This is the clearest gap on the field. New England averages 253 passing yards per game at 8.3 yards per attempt and 6.0 yards per play, fourth in the league. Miami has the fewest sacks in the NFL, six, or 1.0 per game, against 2.4 per game for New England’s defense. Maye was 24 of 31 for 321 yards and three touchdowns at Chicago, with one red-zone interception. The risk to the Patriots is their own turnover margin of minus seven. Miami’s left guard Proctor is in concussion protocol, which would thin a line that already generates little.

NE passing
253.0 yards per game, 8.3 yards per attempt — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
NE yards per play
6.0, fourth in the league — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
Sacks
Miami 6 (1.0 per game); New England 17 (2.4 per game) — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
Maye at Chicago
24 of 31, 321 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
NE turnover margin
Minus 7 (Miami minus 3) — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28

Source: Football Nation USA — Patriots at Dolphins Week 8 Guide (2026-10-28)

Dolphins rushing attack · Patriots defensive front

Miami’s ground game against New England’s tackling

Close to even

Miami’s offense scores 16.3 points per game, so its route to a close game is the run. Rookie back Ollie Gordon II has 339 yards on 72 carries (4.7 per carry) with four touchdowns, and Willis adds rushing value, scoring once and converting a fourth-and-one sneak in the win over the Jets. The Dolphins did not turn the ball over in that game. New England is the stronger team on paper, but the Patriots missed 16 tackles against Chicago and were outsnapped 66 to 50, a pattern Miami’s short passing game and Gordon can test. Miami rushes for 131.5 yards per game to New England’s 122.

Gordon II (MIA RB)
72 carries, 339 yards, 4 TD, 4.7 per carry — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
Miami offense
16.3 points and 293.5 yards per game — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
Rushing yards per game
Miami 131.5; New England 122.0 — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
NE at Chicago
16 missed tackles; outsnapped 66 to 50 — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28
MIA Week 7
28-25 win at the Jets, no turnovers — Football Nation USA, 2026-10-28

Source: Football Nation USA — Patriots at Dolphins Week 8 Guide (2026-10-28)

What this read does not know

  • Tua Tagovailoa is not in play, but his current status is unverified. Miami announced on 2026-03-09 that it would release him (a record $99 million dead cap hit), and reports that day said he would sign a one-year deal with Atlanta. We confirmed Willis as Miami’s starter (he started the Week 7 win at the Jets) but did not confirm Tagovailoa’s present roster or health status. (https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/dolphins-releasing-qb-tua-tagovailoa-resulting-in-a-99-million-dead-cap-hit-malik-willis-to-sign)
  • Only Wednesday participation is available. Brown and Moses were limited for New England; Proctor and Brents did not practice for Miami. Thursday and Friday reports and final designations are not out. (https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/breaking-down-willis-issue-two-204821660.html)
  • Kickoff time differs across sources. Most listings give 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS, while one aggregator listed 1:25 p.m. ET. We use 4:25 p.m. ET. (https://www.covers.com/nfl/patriots-vs-dolphins-prediction-picks-odds-early-leans-week-8-2026)
  • Season statistics are from an aggregator page. The sack, yards-per-play and turnover-margin figures come from a preview that mixes NFL.com and TeamRankings numbers, and the Week 8 injury lists it carried were still the Week 7 final reports. (https://www.footballnationusa.com/post/patriots-at-dolphins-week-8-guide-injuries-fantasy-odds-and-prediction)

Reporting verified 2026-10-29. Further sources: SI — Patriots Week 8 Injury Report: Great News Across the Board (2026-10-28) · Yahoo Sports — Breaking Down a New Willis Issue and the Two Concussions (2026-10-28) · Football Nation USA — Patriots at Dolphins Week 8 Guide (2026-10-28) · Covers — Patriots vs Dolphins Week 8 (2026-10-28) · Fox Sports — Dolphins releasing QB Tua Tagovailoa; Malik Willis to sign (2026-03-09) · DAZN — Bears vs. Seahawks Week 8 preview, Bears 30-24 over Patriots (2026-10-28)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

Patriots vs Dolphins: where the prop prices are How prop price gaps work →

The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.

No Kalshi strike in this game is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.

Patriots vs Dolphins: where the prop prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
PlayerPropKalshiConsensusGapBest price
TreVeyon Henderson25+ rush yds45.0¢49.9%5bk-4.9¢over · Kalshi 47.7¢under · ESPN Bet 51.2¢
Hunter Henry40+ rec yds52.5¢50.0%5bk+2.5¢over · FD 53.3¢under · Kalshi 49.8¢
Caleb Douglas40+ rec yds48.0¢50.0%3bk-2.0¢over · ProphetX 49.5¢under · Novig 53.1¢
Caleb Douglas4+ rec37.0¢38.4%5bk-1.4¢over · Novig 39.5¢under · DK 61.8¢
Ollie Gordon10+ rec yds49.5¢50.7%3bk-1.2¢over · Kalshi 51.8¢under · DK 51.9¢
Rhamondre Stevenson20+ rec yds51.5¢50.4%4bk+1.1¢over · Novig 52.6¢under · Kalshi 50.8¢
DeMario Douglas3+ rec64.5¢65.1%3bk-0.6¢over · BetRivers 64.5¢under · FD 35.5¢
Eli Raridon2+ rec55.5¢55.9%5bk-0.4¢over · Novig 58.5¢under · Novig 45.5¢

Patriots vs Dolphins player props — every Kalshi strike vs the books →+ 236 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.

PMP · WK 8 POSITION
Sun, Nov 1
AWAY NE +3.0
vs NE -7
HOME MIA -4.3
Fair (books) · MIA 27% home win prob
Kalshi · MIA 24¢ yes mid
Edge +3.3pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Miami Gardens, FL BUY MIA
Fair value (books) says Dolphins at 24c or better — 3.3pp above the market.Take the position on Kalshi →

Patriots

73%

fair value (books)

Dolphins

27%

fair value (books)

Market-anchored fair value: MIA 28% (+4.0pp) Combo Edge Builder →

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

67%

Madden 27

33%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

Go Pro · 26% off your first year

Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr

Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.

Go Pro →

$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.

Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Patriots at Dolphins How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Patriots at DolphinsSpreadSHAPEView Dolphins +7.5 on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices Dolphins +7.5 at 53¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Headline rung · Dolphins +14.5
YES 75¢NO 26¢
pays 1.3x · books — · Oracle 🔒

We agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Share this Oracle Ladder

Patriots at Dolphins Kalshi spread ladder for Week 8: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
The Patriots–Dolphins spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Patriots vs Dolphins power ratings (Week 8) What PWR measures →

TeamRatingRankTier
New England Patriots+3.04thPlayoff
Miami Dolphins-4.330thBelow Avg

Patriots and Dolphins season outlook

NEMIA
Average wins10.15.0
Make playoffs74%3%
Win division41%1%
Win Super Bowl6.9%0.1%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Patriots vs Dolphins player props What YES, NO and the tier mean →

Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.

Patriots vs Dolphins player props — the called side, its Kalshi price and our tier on the strike closest to our projection; our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated
PlayerContractCallOur oddsMktTier
Drake MayeQB2+ pass TDsover 1.5NOSkew—44¢MODERATE
Caleb DouglasWR3+ receptionsover 2.5YESPro subscribers onlyPro subscribers onlyMODERATE
Malik WillisQB40+ rush ydsover 39.5NOPro subscribers onlyPro subscribers onlyMODERATE

All 31 player-prop edges for Week 8 →Locked numbers are Pro.

Patriots vs Dolphins — player pages

All players →

Drake Maye

QB — Pass TDs

Caleb Douglas

WR — Receptions

Malik Willis

QB — Rush Yds

A.J. Brown

WR

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB

TreVeyon Henderson

RB

Hunter Henry

TE

Malik Washington

WR

Greg Dulcich

TE

Ollie Gordon II

DeMario Douglas

Eli Raridon

Chris Bell

Corey Kiner

Efton Chism III

Jaylen Wright

Kevin Coleman Jr.

Kyle Williams

NE Patriots D/ST

One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

AFC East math: Patriots at Dolphins

How this read is built →

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins is a AFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Patriots by 5 (63%) off a -4.3 to +3.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.0 (4th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -3.9 (31st) — 6.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Patriots defense (-0.3, 12th), a 0.4-point gap.

On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 5.0 wins (favored in 2 of 17) and the Patriots at 10.1 (favored in 13) — 5.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Patriots'.

Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 28-20 in the Patriots' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Patriots won 38-10 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 63% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA contract implies 24% for the Dolphins against a fair value (books) of 27% — a 3.3-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Dolphins as the value side at 24c.

Full division picture on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Patriots vs Dolphins on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA
Market-implied (Dolphins)
24c · 24%
Fair value — books (Dolphins)
27%
Fair value vs market
+3.3pp

Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 24c on the Dolphins is an implied 24% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 27%, a 3.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Patriots vs Dolphins line history

The earliest line we archived, on Sep 9, had the Patriots −7 (DraftKings). The median across 9 books now is the Patriots −7. On Kalshi the Patriots trade at 77¢ to win, a 77% implied chance.

BookEarliest line we archivedNowSpread trend
DraftKingsPatriots −7 · O/U 45.5Sep 9Patriots −7 · O/U 43.5
FanDuelPatriots −8.5 · O/U 43.5Oct 20Patriots −7 · O/U 43.5
BetMGMPatriots −7.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 25Patriots −7 · O/U 43
CaesarsPatriots −6.5 · O/U 45Sep 9Patriots −7 · O/U 43.5
BetRiversPatriots −8.5 · O/U 43.5Oct 20Patriots −7 · O/U 43.5
ESPN BETPatriots −7.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 26Patriots −6.5 · O/U 42.5
FanaticsPatriots −7.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 26Patriots −7 · O/U 43.5
NovigPatriots −7.5 · O/U 43.5Oct 21Patriots −6.5 · O/U 42.5
ProphetXPatriots −7.5 · O/U 44.5Oct 25Patriots −7 · O/U 43.5
Kalshia contract, not a spreadPatriots 77¢ to win

Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.

Where Patriots vs Dolphins trades Why the venues differ →

3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueDolphinsTrade
Kalshi24% 24cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig25% 25cOpen Novig →
Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book24% 24cOpen Polymarket US →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract24% 24cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract24% 24cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Patriots at Dolphins

Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 10:10 AM ET

Game linesKalshi10:10 AM ETPolymarket USPolymarketPartner11:25 AM ETBest price
Patriots to win77¢78.2¢ after fees75.8¢77¢ after feesPolymarket US1.2¢ less
Dolphins to win24¢25.3¢ after fees24.5¢25.8¢ after feesEven
Patriots −7.547¢48.7¢ after fees46.5¢48.2¢ after feesEven
Over 42.552¢53.7¢ after fees52¢53.7¢ after feesEven
Player props on both venues
Corey Kiner anytime TDno current price23¢24.2¢ after fees—
Eli Raridon anytime TDno current price19¢20.1¢ after fees—
Kyle Williams anytime TDno current price19¢20.1¢ after fees—
Ollie Gordon II anytime TDno current price42¢43.7¢ after fees—
Efton Chism III anytime TDno current price19¢20.1¢ after fees—
Hunter Henry 40+ rec ydsno current price53¢54.7¢ after fees—
DeMario Douglas anytime TDno current price30¢31.5¢ after fees—
Drake Maye anytime TDno current price22¢23.2¢ after fees—
This game on Kalshi →This game on Polymarket US →

Sponsored by Polymarket US

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Polymarket US lists 450 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first half spread, second half spread, full game total, full game spread, second quarter total).

Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.

Kalshi vs Novig on this game — New England Patriots to win: Kalshi 78.2¢ (ask + fee) · Novig 75.5¢ (no fee pregame) · Novig 2.7¢ cheaper (both books as of 10:57 AM ET). Every game → · NFL on Novig · Trade on Novig →

Patriots vs Dolphins player prop ladders How to read a prop ladder →

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

Caleb DouglasReceptionsWATCH · capped MODERATEMARKET READView 3+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 3+ rec at 57¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Headline rung · 4+ rec
YES 39¢NO 65¢
pays 2.6x · books 38¢ · Oracle 🔒

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 65¢, the books imply 62¢ — 1.4 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
DeMario DouglasReceptionsMARKET READView 3+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 3+ rec at 65¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 3+ rec
YES 65¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 3+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 36¢, the books imply 35¢ — 0.6 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
Eli RaridonReceptionsMARKET READView 2+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 56¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 2+ rec
YES 57¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 2+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 46¢, the books imply 44¢ — 0.4 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →
Chris BellReceptionsMARKET READView 2+ rec on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 50¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

Market · 2+ rec
YES 51¢

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Oracle Ladders venue check

At 2+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 51¢, the books imply 50¢ — 0.3 points below the book read.

Legend
  • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
  • book consensus (no-vig)
  • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
  • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Embed this game on your site

A live tile locked to Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.

Article width · 560×320

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026/hero"
  width="560"
  height="320"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Sidebar · 320×340

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="340"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

MPU · ad slot · 300×250

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026/mpu"
  width="300"
  height="250"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026/leaderboard"
  width="728"
  height="90"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Embed this game’s spread ladder

A live card locked to Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.

Every NFL prediction-market widget.

Article width · 560×300

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026/hero"
  width="560"
  height="300"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Sidebar · 320×280

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="280"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/patriots-vs-dolphins-week-08-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Watch the breakdown: Patriots vs Dolphins

NFL Week 4 Picks: Derrick Henry TD Ladder, Chiefs-Raiders, Falcons-Saints | Fade The Field Ep. 19 — video thumbnail41:41NFL Week 4 Picks: Derrick Henry TD Ladder, Chiefs-Raiders, Falcons-Saints | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 1, 2026NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14 — video thumbnail45:52NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14Jul 28, 2026Fade The Field Ep. 13 — video thumbnail42:21Fade The Field Ep. 13Jul 21, 2026

Patriots vs Dolphins — frequently asked

Who will win Dolphins vs Patriots?

The market line has the Patriots at 73% to beat the Dolphins in Week 8.

Who is favored in Patriots vs Dolphins in Week 8?

The market line has the Patriots by 7 points, a 73% win probability over the Dolphins (our model's own line: Patriots by 5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA market implies 24% for the Dolphins — a 3.3pp gap versus the market line.

How much does a AFC East result matter here?

Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Patriots by 5 on ratings and home field alone.

How do you take a position on Patriots vs Dolphins?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Dolphins YES is quoted around 24c against a fair value (books) of 27%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Dolphins host the Patriots?

New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.

What does the model project for the Dolphins and Patriots this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 5.0 wins (favored in 2) and the Patriots at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Patriots', by win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Patriots vs Dolphins?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA. The Dolphins YES contract sits around 24c, which is an implied 24% — against our books-anchored fair value of 27%. That is a 3.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Can you trade Patriots vs Dolphins on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Patriots?

59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Patriots at 63% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

What happens on Kalshi if Patriots vs Dolphins ends in a tie?

Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.

Is Drake Maye UNDER 1.5 Pass TDs worth a position?

Kalshi prices it at 44%. Provenance-limited row — the disagreement is real but our input is not confirmed. Not a play. We pass — no position.

Is Dolphins moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 27% against a market price implying 24%, an edge of +3.3 points. Model 27% vs market 24% on MIA. We rate it a position, sized at 1.1% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

Trade this game on Kalshi →Dolphins hub →Patriots hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 8 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 8 card, market price vs our number. Free.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

The rematch

They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Patriots–Dolphins, Week 18 →

After this one

Patriots: Week 9 vs PackersModel line →Dolphins: Week 9 vs LionsModel line →

More Week 8 matchups

Panthers at PackersModel: Packers −5Ravens at BillsModel: Bills −3.5Titans at BengalsModel: Bengals −9.5Cardinals at CowboysModel: Cowboys −6.5Vikings at LionsModel: Lions −2.5Colts at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −7Raiders at JetsModel: Jets −4Browns at SteelersModel: Steelers −3Falcons at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −3.5Chargers at RamsModel: Rams −8.5Chiefs at BroncosModel: Broncos −4Eagles at CommandersModel: Commanders −7Bears at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −3.5

Full Week 8 board →Next: NFL Week 9 predictions →

Same model, inside your AI agent

The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

See the in-season NFL tools →

Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

More NFL model boards