New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 6 in New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 8 2026 — 67% to win, and a AFC East game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 28c or below (or Patriots at 62c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.4
MIA
-3.0
Patriots
67%
model win prob
Dolphins
33%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 28c or below, or the Patriots at 62c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
AFC East math: Patriots at Dolphins
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins is a AFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Patriots by 6 (67%) off a -3.0 to +5.4 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 6.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 2.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.2 (27th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15) — 4.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Patriots'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 28-20 in the Patriots' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Patriots won 38-10 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Dolphins 33%, Patriots 67%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Dolphins contracts a buy at 28c or below and Patriots contracts a buy at 62c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Dolphins in Week 8?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 6 points, a 67% win probability over the Dolphins. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.0) and the Patriots 2nd (+5.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Patriots by 6 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01NEMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 28c or below, or the Patriots at 62c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Patriots?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Patriots at 67% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Patriots–Dolphins, Week 18 →
More Week 8 matchups
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