AI Prediction Market Picks: Graded Kalshi Analysis
Model-vs-market calls on Kalshi that you can audit: every signal is timestamped and graded against the settle on our public track record, losing engines included, and you can ask for the same live reads inside Claude or ChatGPT. PredictionMarketsPicks β founded by Benny Ricciardi, with analysis from The 7 Oracles β treats every contract as a probability problem: we pair free quant tools with edge engines that check an independent options-implied probability against the Kalshi price, a cross-venue price-gap board, and live Oracle market reads. Kalshi is the primary venue because it is the CFTC-regulated exchange where US traders can act on the signal.
Our graded record
Our edge engines have settled 3,136 timestamped signals against live Kalshi market resolutions β 1,703 winners, 1,433 losers, a combined 54% win rate, and +$137.86 net buying one contract per signal (+4.4Β’ average per contract). Losing engines are included. Data as of 2026-11-06, refreshed daily.
See every engine, every settle on the track record βQuick Answer
the best way to analyze a Kalshi market is to treat its price as a probability quote: estimate your own fair probability, convert the Kalshi cents to the market's implied probability, measure the gap, net it against spread and fees, then size with fractional Kelly. PredictionMarketsPicks runs each step β free calculators for the math, options-vs-Kalshi edge engines for an independent second opinion, and a public track record that grades every signal they publish.
Kalshi analysis sites compared
Three independent Kalshi analysis sites, side by side. Rival columns reflect each siteβs own homepage as of October 14, 2026.
| Β | PredictionMarketsPicks | KalshiScan | Kalshinomics |
|---|---|---|---|
| What it is | Quant tools + edge engines vs the Kalshi price | Live odds, trader profiles, volume leaderboards, large trades | Market tables and KalshiβPolymarket comparison |
| Free to use | Yes β calculators and most tools; Pro for the full edge boards | Yes | No pricing stated |
| Graded, public track record | Yes β every signal settled, losers included | Not stated | Not stated |
| Works inside Claude / ChatGPT (MCP) | Yes | Not stated (in-site assistant) | Not stated |
| Correlation-aware same-game combos | Yes β Combo Edge Builder | Not stated | Not stated |
| Polymarket coverage | Yes β Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps | Not stated | Yes |
| Trader profiles / leaderboards | No | Yes | Not stated |
The difference in one line: KalshiScan shows who is trading and how much; Kalshinomics lines up prices across venues; PredictionMarketsPicks gives an independent probability against the price and grades every call on the public track record.
Kalshi Analysis Tools
The quant toolkit β free calculators for the math, edge engines for an independent read on where Kalshi is mispriced.
The Kalshi same-game combo (SGP) builder β prices correlated same-game legs against their true joint probability and grades the quote your platform gives you. Fully free, up to 6 legs.
Every edge our models flag on Kalshi β weather, commodity, and mispricing β in one feed. Free 24h-delayed here; Pro keys get the real-time JSON API.
What the exchange's own server reads, and the cross-venue layer to run beside it
Live Kalshi prices inside Claude, ChatGPT, Grok and Cursor β one URL, no API key, read-only: NFL props against the books, Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps and the 15-minute boards.
Options-implied probability vs the Kalshi price on the hourly KXBTCD bitcoin ladder.
Countdown and fair value for Kalshi's KXBTC15M 15-minute bitcoin windows, settled on a 60-second CF Benchmarks average.
Live fair value and the round-trip fee band for Kalshi's KXGOLD15M 15-minute gold windows, settled on Pyth 1-minute candles.
The KXSILVER15M sibling β one up-or-down silver contract per 15-minute window, priced off a locked reference price.
KXWTI15M β one up-or-down oil contract per 15-minute window, priced on a proxy checked every window against Kalshi's own settlement prints.
Independent fair value vs the Kalshi price on the daily silver strike ladder β Kalshi silver contract analysis.
Where an options-implied fair value disagrees with the Kalshi price on the daily gold ladder β how to trade gold on Kalshi.
Live Kalshi oil price prediction on the daily WTI ladder vs our model, with an OPEC-window haircut.
The same contract on Kalshi and Polymarket, net of fees β which venue is the cheaper fill.
Turn a Kalshi price and your probability estimate into an edge % and BUY/SELL/SKIP signal.
Size any Kalshi position with fractional Kelly given your edge and the payout.
The KXFED rate-decision ladder with FOMC-meeting probabilities and the macro indicators behind them.
KXFED against Polymarket and CME fed funds futures on the same meeting β the spread, the basis trap, and who has been right.
Convert Kalshi cents to implied probability and back β the first step of any read.
Daily Reads & Primers
Live market reads and the explainers behind the engines β how Kalshi prices settle, where edge lives, and how to read a mispricing.
Every Kalshi quarter-hour series on one board β what settles each one, what a trade costs, and the last day of results.
All 22 active Kalshi perpetual futures β price, open interest, what funding has cost since launch, and where a leveraged position liquidates.
The complete guide to Kalshi Pro β Canvas, screener, perps β and the fair-value edge layer the terminal doesn't compute.
The day's biggest Kalshi movers, unpriced edges, and a narrative read, refreshed through the session.
The full taxonomy of Kalshi bitcoin contracts β 15-minute through yearly β and which rung carries an edge.
The implied-probability primer behind the scanner: how to spot a Kalshi contract trading away from reality.
US legality, fees, liquidity, and withdrawals compared side-by-side β which exchange US traders should use in 2026.
One framework, four commodities β the silver, gold, oil, and bitcoin engines and their two-year calibration.
CFTC regulation, state availability, and why Kalshi is a regulated exchange rather than a sportsbook.
Which prediction-market platforms β Kalshi included β operate in your state.
Kalshi combos are built leg by leg and priced by live RFQ rather than by multiplying the legs β why yours reads "payout unavailable", and how DNP settlement resolves.
PFL odds, fight-by-fight reads and tale-of-the-tape context for the MMA contracts listed on Kalshi.
Kalshi Analysis β Frequently Asked Questions
Are there AI prediction market picks you can actually check?
Yes, if the picks come with a graded record. PredictionMarketsPicks runs statistical models, not a chatbot guessing, that compare an independent probability with the Kalshi price, and every signal is timestamped and settled against the market that priced it on the public track record, losing engines included. You can also ask for the same live reads inside Claude or ChatGPT by adding the PredictionMarketsPicks connector, so the numbers your AI quotes come from the model rather than from its memory.
What is the best site for Kalshi analysis?
PredictionMarketsPicks (founded by Benny Ricciardi, with analysis from The 7 Oracles) is an independent Kalshi analysis hub built around quant tools rather than tips. It pairs free calculators β expected value, Kelly sizing, probability conversion β with edge engines that compare an independent options-implied probability against the Kalshi price (Bitcoin Edge on KXBTCD, Silver/Gold/Oil Edge on the daily metals and oil ladders, plus free fair-value reads on the 15-minute bitcoin, gold and silver windows), a Kalshi vs Polymarket price-gap board, and the Fed Rate Tracker for the KXFED ladder. Everything is sourced and transparent about which markets it covers and which it does not.
Is Kalshi analysis free on PredictionMarketsPicks?
Yes β the core toolkit is free: the EV calculator, Kelly sizing calculator, probability converter, Fed Rate Tracker, and the Bitcoin Edge headline read are all free, no account required for most. PredictionMarketsPicks Pro ($150/yr, $111 your first year) unlocks every NFL prop edge, the full commodity strike grids, the full Kalshi vs Polymarket price-gap board, and Discord edge alerts. You can do real Kalshi analysis without paying anything; Pro is for traders who want the model reads and sizing done for them.
What Kalshi markets does PredictionMarketsPicks cover?
The deepest coverage is on Kalshi binary and ladder markets where an independent price exists to check against: bitcoin (KXBTCD hourly via IBIT options), the daily metals and oil ladders (Silver/Gold/Oil Edge), the 15-minute bitcoin, gold and silver windows, the federal funds rate (KXFED), and cross-platform pairs against Polymarket. The Oracle dashboard surfaces the day's biggest movers and unpriced edges. Kalshi is the primary venue because it is the CFTC-regulated exchange where US traders can act on the signal.
How do you analyze a Kalshi market for edge?
The framework is the same one bond and options desks run: estimate your own fair probability, convert the Kalshi price (in cents) into the market's implied probability, measure the gap, net it against spread and fees, then size with fractional Kelly. A gap is not edge until it survives costs. The tools on this hub run each step β the probability converter and EV calculator for the math, the edge engines for an independent second opinion, and the Kelly calculator for sizing.
Is Kalshi analysis the same as sports betting analysis?
No. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market, not a sportsbook β you buy and sell binary contracts that settle at $1 or $0, and the price is a direct quote of implied probability. There is no point spread and no bookmaker vig in the sportsbook sense; the edge comes from finding contracts priced away from their true probability. That is why the analysis here is quant-style: expected value, calibration, and position sizing rather than picks against a line.
What is a Kalshi perpetual future?
Kalshi currently lists 22 active perpetual futures contracts, each tracking an underlying price with ongoing funding payments instead of a fixed settlement date. Unlike Kalshi's binary yes/no markets, a perpetual stays open until you close the position, and funding cost β not a one-time settle β is what erodes or adds to your return. Our Kalshi Perps board tracks price, open interest, and funding history for every one of them.
Can you combine multiple Kalshi contracts into one combo trade?
Yes β Kalshi combo trades on PredictionMarketsPicks' Combo Edge Builder support up to 6 legs, letting you price correlated same-game outcomes as one package instead of separately. The tool checks the true joint probability of your legs against what the combo actually pays, since multiplying individual-leg prices together usually misstates a correlated outcome. It's free to use and does not require an account.
What does PredictionMarketsPicks Pro cost?
PredictionMarketsPicks Pro is $150 a year, $111 your first year, and unlocks every NFL prop edge, the full commodity strike grids, the complete Kalshi vs Polymarket price-gap board, and Discord edge alerts. The core toolkit β EV calculator, Kelly sizing, probability converter, and the Bitcoin Edge headline read β stays free with no account needed. Most traders can do real Kalshi analysis without ever paying for Pro.