Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Bills

55%

model win prob

Dolphins

45%

model win prob

Model line

Bills −1.5

Kalshi (Dolphins)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bills — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Buffalo Bills+2.25thPlayoff

Miami Dolphins-2.026thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 17, the Buffalo Bills travel to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Dolphins 26th of 32 (Average tier, -2.0) and the Bills 5th (Playoff tier, +2.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bills by 1.5 — a 55% win probability for the Bills.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 45% (Dolphins) / 55% (Bills) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bills vs Dolphins — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bills vs Dolphins in Week 17?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bills by 1.5 points and gives them a 55% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bills vs Dolphins?

Home win probability 45% (Dolphins), away 55% (Bills). That comes from a power-rating differential of -4.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Dolphins rate 26th of 32 (Average tier), the Bills 5th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Bills vs Dolphins on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.