Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 4.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 17 2026 — 63% to win, and the second AFC East meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 32c or below (or Bills at 58c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+4.2
MIA
-3.0
Bills
63%
model win prob
Dolphins
37%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 32c or below, or the Bills at 58c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Bills and Dolphins already played in Week 11, and now the Bills make the return trip in Week 17. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -3.0 against +4.2, plus home field, equals the Bills by 4.5 (63%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 6.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 1.0-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.4 (17th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 11, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13) — 3.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Bills'.
One team has owned this series: the Bills are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Dolphins won 30-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Dolphins 37%, Bills 63%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Dolphins contracts a buy at 32c or below and Bills contracts a buy at 58c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Dolphins in Week 17?
Our power-rating model favors the Bills by 4.5 points, a 63% win probability over the Dolphins. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.0) and the Bills 4th (+4.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 11. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bills by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 32c or below, or the Bills at 58c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, January 3, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 17, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Bills?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bills at 63% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 11. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bills–Dolphins, Week 11 →
More Week 17 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.