Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 5 in Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 17 2026 — 64% to win, and the second AFC East meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 31c or below (or Bills at 59c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+3.8
MIA
-3.3
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Bills
64%
model win prob
Dolphins
36%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
67%
Madden 27
33%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 31c or below, or the Bills at 59c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bills at Dolphins
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dolphins −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dolphins −2.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 more rungsDolphins −3.5 → Dolphins −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Bills and Dolphins already played in Week 11, and now the Bills make the return trip in Week 17. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -3.3 against +3.8, plus home field, equals the Bills by 5 (64%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.7 (28th) — 6.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 0.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.4 (17th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 11, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 2 of 17) and the Bills at 10.1 (favored in 13) — 3.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Bills'.
One team has owned this series: the Bills are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Dolphins won 30-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Dolphins 36%, Bills 64%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Dolphins contracts a buy at 31c or below and Bills contracts a buy at 59c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Dolphins on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA
- Market-implied (Dolphins)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Dolphins)
- 36%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Dolphins at 31c or below, or the Bills at 59c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bills vs Dolphins trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Dolphins | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bills vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Dolphins in Week 17?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 5 points, a 64% win probability over the Dolphins, for a projected score of Bills 27, Dolphins 23 on a ratings-implied 50.0-point total. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.3) and the Bills 4th (+3.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 11. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Bills by 5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 31c or below, or the Bills at 59c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, January 3, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 17, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 2) and the Bills at 10.1 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Dolphins?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Dolphins at 31c or below or the Bills at 59c or below, off a 5-point line.
Can you trade Bills vs Dolphins on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 17 game market is KXNFLGAME-27JAN03BUFMIA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Bills?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bills at 64% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 11. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bills–Dolphins, Week 11 →
More Week 17 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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