Silver Edge
Same underlying. Two pricing channels. We surface the gap on every active Kalshi silver strike, daily.
Already settled — Silver Edge
latest Sep 4The last 6 calls this engine made that have already resolved, win or lose, with the price it flagged and the model probability behind it. Every pick is logged when it is made and graded automatically at settlement.
| Settled | Market | Side | Kalshi | Model | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | Silver KXSILVERW-26SEP0417 @ 63.99 | NO | 93¢ | 79% | -13.4pp | Miss |
| Aug 28 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2817 @ 68.99 | YES | 91¢ | 99% | +7.9pp | Miss |
| Aug 28 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2817 @ 66.99 | NO | 69¢ | 56% | -13.2pp | Hit |
| Aug 21 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2117 @ 63.99 | NO | 78¢ | 71% | -7.1pp | Miss |
| Aug 21 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG2117 @ 61.99 | NO | 93¢ | 85% | -7.4pp | Miss |
| Aug 14 | Silver KXSILVERW-26AUG1417 @ 61.99 | NO | 76¢ | 66% | -9.5pp | Miss |
Settled calls only — live flags are the Pro board. See today’s scan with Pro → $7.50 first month, then $14.99/mo.
Quick Answer
Silver Edge surfaces every Kalshi weekly silver strike where the model-implied probability and the YES price diverge, flagged HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW. Across 2,485 settled signals (Jan 2024–May 2026) the engine hit 90.3% on model-probability ≥ 80%. Updates in real time during market hours.
If you're asking whether Silver Edge actually catches tradeable Kalshi mispricings: across 2,485 settled signals from January 2024 through May 2026, the engine's HIGH-confidence calls (model probability ≥ 80%) hit at a 90.3% rate, with calibration monotonic across every bucket. The +5pp threshold filters round-trip Kalshi friction; HIGH tier additionally requires strike within ±5% of spot, tight option spreads, and Kalshi 24h volume ≥ 100 contracts.
Caveat: tail strikes carry a known risk-premium gap the model can't fully arbitrage away — those get flagged MEDIUM or LOW with a rationale, not HIGH. Verify the live Kalshi book and the rationale field before sizing the position.
What Is the Silver Edge Tool?
Kalshi's weekly KXSILVERW market settles on a deterministic XAG/USD spot oracle every Friday at 5pm ET. SLV options on the same underlying settle through a different channel with a different mechanism but the same number. The Silver Edge tool extracts the probability the options market is implying, compares it to the Kalshi YES contract price on every active strike, and flags the gaps.
The free tier shows the headline — spot, ATM IV, hours to close, and the direction of today's top edge. The Pro grid below shows every strike with the signed edge in percentage points, the rationale, and direct trade links to Kalshi (with referral) and Robinhood (for the SLV options hedge).
How to Use It
Start with the HIGH confidence rows — those passed all four liquidity guards (edge, distance from spot, spread, volume). Cross-check the rationale for any caveat. Click through to Kalshi to verify the live book before sizing. Then optionally enter the matching SLV option on Robinhood as a directional hedge.
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Markets closed. Live edge calculations resume Tuesday at 10:05 AM ET — check back when markets are open. Read the methodology below for how the tool works.
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Related Tools
Why Options and Kalshi Disagree on Silver
Silver is one of the cleanest commodity prediction-market arbitrage candidates in the US market. Kalshi's weekly silver event settles deterministically on a public XAG/USD spot oracle — there is no question what number the market lands on. SLV options on the iShares Silver Trust ETF track the same underlying. Two different markets, two different microstructures, one underlying number.
The price discovery channels are different. Kalshi's weekly silver flow is dominated by retail traders sizing in 1–10 contract clips. SLV options are priced by professional options market makers running risk-neutral hedging books. When retail flow puts a Kalshi strike at 30¢ and the options book is implying 45% on the same outcome, the gross gap is 15pp. Round-trip trading cost on Kalshi (bid-ask + fees) runs about 5pp on liquid contracts, which leaves roughly +10pp of expected-value edge after slippage. That is not noise — it is two markets on the same underlying that have not agreed on the same number yet.
The Edge in pp
The Silver Edge tool reports gaps in percentage points (pp). A +20pp edge on a BUY YES means the options market is pricing the YES outcome 20 percentage points higher than the Kalshi YES contract. The Kalshi contract pays out $1 if the event happens — pricing it below the options-implied probability is a direct expected-value edge.
Confidence tiers gate the rows by liquidity, not just by edge size. A 60pp edge on a strike with zero 24h volume is not actionable. We require ≥100 contracts of recent volume, a tight bid-ask, and a strike within ±5% of spot for the HIGH tier. Outside those guards, the rationale field flags the specific reason the row dropped to MEDIUM or LOW.
The Hedge
The Robinhood link on each row goes to the SLV option position that mirrors the Kalshi contract. Entering both legs neutralizes most of the directional risk and turns the trade into a pure mispricing capture. Sizing is 2% of trading account per Kalshi leg, 5% combined across correlated strikes — the methodology block below has the exact thresholds and caveats.
How Silver Edge Has Scored on Two Years of Markets
The engine doesn't get to grade itself on vibes. We replayed Silver Edge across every settled KXSILVERW daily snapshot from January 2, 2024 through May 14, 2026 — 2,485 settled signals — and scored the model probability against what silver actually did at the public XAG/USD settle.
The calibration table — model probability vs realized hit rate, by bucket:
- When the model said ≥ 80% likely: 258 signals, hit rate 90.3%.
- When the model said 65–80%: 465 signals, hit rate 81.1%.
- When the model said 50–65%: 457 signals, hit rate 68.7%.
- When the model said under 20%: 245 signals, hit rate 24.1%.
- Overall across 2,485 settled signals: 59.6%.
Monotonic across every bucket — higher model probability, higher realized hit rate, in the right shape. That is the property a calibrated signal is supposed to have. Two and a half years of public XAG/USD settles, scored after the fact, no curve-fitting. See the full calibration plots →
A trade we've taken
2026-04-30 · KXSILVERW-26MAY0117 · BUY YES at 55¢ · settled +45¢. Position logged in Daily Plays. Forward log builds out as the engine fires the next live signal.
Why this section exists
Most prediction-market explainers online are screenshots and theory written by people who don't trade. We replayed the model on every silver settle of the last two years and showed the hit rate by confidence bucket above. If the engine had been wrong on the strong calls, the number on row one would read 50%, not 90.
Want the live signal in real time? Pro members get Silver Edge alerts in Discord the second the engine fires. See also: Gold Edge · Oil Edge · Bitcoin Edge · How our commodity engines work. Every silver signal also rolls up into Thee Oracle, the macro dashboard that scores the strongest cross-market moves each session.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Silver Edge have a verified track record?
Yes. Every Silver Edge signal is logged and auto-graded at settlement. All-time the tool is 236–166 (59%) across settled Kalshi signals, +$43.28 at par. Last 30 days: 1–8 (11%). The record updates automatically as new signals settle — no cherry-picking.
How does Kalshi silver contract analysis work?
Kalshi silver contract analysis reads each weekly silver strike ('silver above $X?') as a probability quote and checks it against an independent fair value. Silver Edge computes an options-implied fair probability for every active strike, subtracts the Kalshi YES price to get the edge in percentage points, nets that against the round-trip trading cost, and flags the survivors BUY YES / BUY NO / PASS at HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence. The point is a second opinion on fair value: a Kalshi silver contract is only a trade when the gap between the model and the market survives costs, and the analysis shows exactly where that happens across the weekly ladder.
Quick answer: does Silver Edge actually catch tradeable Kalshi mispricings?
Across 2,485 settled signals from January 2024 through May 2026, the engine's HIGH-confidence calls (model probability ≥ 80%) hit at a 90.3% rate, with the calibration monotonic across every bucket — higher model probability, higher realized hit rate. The +5pp BUY/SELL threshold filters round-trip Kalshi friction; the HIGH tier additionally requires the strike within ±5% of spot, tight option spreads, and Kalshi 24h volume ≥ 100 contracts. Caveat: tail strikes carry a known risk-premium gap the model can't fully arbitrage away — those get flagged MEDIUM or LOW with a rationale, not HIGH.
What is the Silver Edge tool?
The Silver Edge tool compares the model-implied probability of silver closing above each strike on Kalshi's weekly KXSILVERW market against Kalshi's own YES contract price for that strike. When the two diverge by more than the round-trip trading cost, the tool flags the strike as a tradeable edge — BUY YES, BUY NO, or PASS — with HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence. The snapshot updates in real time during US market hours.
How does Kalshi settle weekly silver markets?
Kalshi's KXSILVERW weekly silver market settles on a deterministic XAG/USD spot oracle at 5:00 PM Eastern on Friday. The settlement source is published in the Kalshi series metadata under settlement_sources. Our spot reference price is computed against that same oracle, so the tool's spot is always the exact number Kalshi will use to settle.
Where do the options-implied probabilities come from?
We pull the SLV (iShares Silver Trust ETF) options chain that expires closest to the Kalshi event close. SLV tracks the same underlying physical silver as XAG/USD with a known ETF-to-spot ratio. We use the published IV per strike when present and back-solve from the option's last traded price using Brent's method on Black-Scholes when not. Edge is computed using a physical-measure probability model: the engine blends the options IV with a 20-day realized volatility and applies an empirical drift estimator (60-day realized return blended with a long-run prior) before evaluating P(S_T > K). This corrects a known +5–10pp near-the-money bias that pure risk-neutral models inherit on weekly commodity contracts.
How does the engine forecast probability instead of pure risk-neutral pricing?
Pure risk-neutral pricing (N(d2) on the Black-Scholes framework) systematically biases low when an underlying carries persistent positive drift — silver has run +50–90% annualized through 2024–2026, which a textbook risk-neutral model treats as if drift were 4.5%. The engine instead blends the options IV with the 20-day realized vol per commodity and replaces the static r − q drift with a 60-day realized return shrunk toward a long-run prior. This corrects the known +5–10pp near-the-money bias on weekly commodity contracts. Tail strikes still get a confidence demotion — there is a known risk premium gap the model can't arbitrage away — flagged MEDIUM or LOW with a rationale.
What confidence levels does the Silver Edge tool use?
HIGH — edge ≥ 10pp, strike within ±5% of spot, option bid-ask spread < $0.05, Kalshi 24h volume ≥ 100 contracts. MEDIUM — at least one of those conditions fails but edge ≥ 8pp. LOW — edge between 5pp and 8pp or wide spreads. PASS — edge below 5pp or insufficient liquidity to trade.
What's the practical workflow for trading a Silver Edge call?
Take the BUY YES position on Kalshi at the listed strike. Optionally hedge the directional exposure with the corresponding SLV option position on Robinhood (the ratio is 1 SLV option ≈ $5.65 of Kalshi notional at the current ETF ratio). Hold to Friday 5 PM EDT settlement. Size to no more than 2% of trading account per position. Do not stack multiple correlated strikes in the same direction beyond 5% combined.
How often does the Silver Edge tool update?
Every 5 minutes during US market hours, and every 30 minutes when the market is closed. The engine tightens that cadence in the final hour before Friday's 5 PM EDT settle, when the gap between the model probability and the Kalshi YES contract moves fastest. The page itself revalidates on a 60-second tick, so a refresh always shows the latest committed snapshot rather than a stale cache.
Do I need a Pro subscription to use Silver Edge?
No — the free tier shows the headline every day: spot, at-the-money implied volatility, hours to close, and the direction of the top edge. Pro ($14.99/mo) unlocks the full strike-by-strike grid, the signed edge in percentage points, the rationale field, direct Kalshi trade links, and real-time Silver Edge alerts in Discord the second the engine fires a HIGH-confidence signal.
What is the smallest edge worth taking a position on?
Roughly 5 percentage points — that is the round-trip Kalshi friction (bid-ask plus fees) a silver position has to clear before the gap becomes real expected value. Anything under +5pp gets flagged PASS. The tool only surfaces a BUY YES or BUY NO once the model probability and the Kalshi YES contract diverge past that gate, and reserves the HIGH tier for gaps of 10pp or more that also clear the liquidity guards.
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