Silver Edge
Same underlying. Two pricing channels. We surface the gap on every active Kalshi silver strike, daily.
If you're asking whether Silver Edge actually catches tradeable Kalshi mispricings: across 2,485 settled signals from January 2024 through May 2026, the engine's HIGH-confidence calls (model probability ≥ 80%) hit at a 90.3% rate, with calibration monotonic across every bucket. The +5pp threshold filters round-trip Kalshi friction; HIGH tier additionally requires strike within ±5% of spot, tight option spreads, and Kalshi 24h volume ≥ 100 contracts.
Caveat: tail strikes carry a known risk-premium gap the model can't fully arbitrage away — those get flagged MEDIUM or LOW with a rationale, not HIGH. Verify the live Kalshi book and the rationale field before sizing the position.
What Is the Silver Edge Tool?
Kalshi's weekly KXSILVERW market settles on a deterministic XAG/USD spot oracle every Friday at 5pm ET. SLV options on the same underlying settle through a different channel with a different mechanism but the same number. The Silver Edge tool extracts the probability the options market is implying, compares it to the Kalshi YES contract price on every active strike, and flags the gaps.
The free tier shows the headline — spot, ATM IV, hours to close, and the direction of today's top edge. The Pro grid below shows every strike with the signed edge in percentage points, the rationale, and direct trade links to Kalshi (with referral) and Robinhood (for the SLV options hedge).
How to Use It
Start with the HIGH confidence rows — those passed all four liquidity guards (edge, distance from spot, spread, volume). Cross-check the rationale for any caveat. Click through to Kalshi to verify the live book before sizing. Then optionally enter the matching SLV option on Robinhood as a directional hedge.
Engine's at the beach
Markets are closed. Live signals resume Monday at 10:05 AM ET. Last live snapshot: Fri, Jun 12, 4:59 PM ET.
Table below shown as historical reference — click-throughs disabled until reopen.
Markets closed. Live edge calculations resume Monday at 10:05 AM ET — check back when markets are open.
Direction-only preview. The full strike grid — edge in pp, confidence tier, rationale, and Kalshi/Robinhood links — is available with Pro.
Dealer gamma balanced. No regime modifier applied to today’s edges.
Methodology
- Settlement source. Kalshi's KXSILVERW weekly silver market settles on a deterministic XAG/USD spot oracle at 5:00 PM Eastern on Friday. The settlement source is published in the Kalshi series metadata under settlement_sources. Our spot reference price is computed against that same oracle, so the snapshot's spot is the exact number Kalshi will settle on.
- Options data source. We read the SLV (iShares Silver Trust ETF) option chain that expires closest to the Kalshi event close. SLV tracks XAG/USD with a known ETF-to-spot ratio, so call probabilities map cleanly to Kalshi strike levels.
- IV recovery. The chain feed publishes implied volatility per strike. We use the IV when present and back-solve from the option's last traded price using Brent's method on the Black-Scholes inverse when not, with a smile filter (strike within ±25% of spot) and an IV clamp of [0.10, 1.50] annualized.
- Probability calculation. The risk-neutral probability that spot finishes above strike K is
N(d2)from the Black-Scholes formula, whered2 = (ln(S/K) + (r − σ²/2)·τ) / (σ·√τ). We use the 4-week T-bill yield for r and τ in years until Kalshi event close. - Edge calculation. The signed edge is
options_prob − kalshi_yes_price. Positive = YES is underpriced relative to options. Negative = NO is underpriced. Magnitude is reported in percentage points (pp). - Confidence tiers. HIGH— edge ≥ 10pp, strike within ±5% of spot, option bid-ask spread < $0.05, Kalshi 24h volume ≥ 100 contracts.MEDIUM — edge ≥ 8pp; one liquidity guard fails (volume, spread, or distance from spot).LOW — edge between 5pp and 8pp, or wide spreads on both legs.PASS / SKIP — edge below 5pp, or missing IV (Brent failed to converge inside the smile band).
- Caveats. The risk-neutral probability already prices the market's view of risk; for tail strikes a known risk-premium gap can persist (the rationale field flags it as MEDIUM or LOW with a note). The SLV-vs-XAG/USD tracking error is bounded but non-zero. Use the tool as a screen — the Kalshi link on each row goes to the live order book.
- Last data refresh. Snapshot taken 44.1 hours ago (XAG/USD spot = $68.02, snapshot stale — pipeline check pending).
Position sizing: cap any single Silver Edge play at 2% of trading account, and cap stacked correlated strikes (same direction, adjacent strikes) at 5% combined. Trade responsibly.
Looking for a plain-English silver outlook? See this week's Silver Price Prediction.
Related Tools
Why Options and Kalshi Disagree on Silver
Silver is one of the cleanest commodity prediction-market arbitrage candidates in the US market. Kalshi's weekly silver event settles deterministically on a public XAG/USD spot oracle — there is no question what number the market lands on. SLV options on the iShares Silver Trust ETF track the same underlying. Two different markets, two different microstructures, one underlying number.
The price discovery channels are different. Kalshi's weekly silver flow is dominated by retail traders sizing in 1–10 contract clips. SLV options are priced by professional options market makers running risk-neutral hedging books. When retail flow puts a Kalshi strike at 30¢ and the options book is implying 45% on the same outcome, the gross gap is 15pp. Round-trip trading cost on Kalshi (bid-ask + fees) runs about 5pp on liquid contracts, which leaves roughly +10pp of expected-value edge after slippage. That is not noise — it is two markets on the same underlying that have not agreed on the same number yet.
The Edge in pp
The Silver Edge tool reports gaps in percentage points (pp). A +20pp edge on a BUY YES means the options market is pricing the YES outcome 20 percentage points higher than the Kalshi YES contract. The Kalshi contract pays out $1 if the event happens — pricing it below the options-implied probability is a direct expected-value edge.
Confidence tiers gate the rows by liquidity, not just by edge size. A 60pp edge on a strike with zero 24h volume is not actionable. We require ≥100 contracts of recent volume, a tight bid-ask, and a strike within ±5% of spot for the HIGH tier. Outside those guards, the rationale field flags the specific reason the row dropped to MEDIUM or LOW.
The Hedge
The Robinhood link on each row goes to the SLV option position that mirrors the Kalshi contract. Entering both legs neutralizes most of the directional risk and turns the trade into a pure mispricing capture. Sizing is 2% of trading account per Kalshi leg, 5% combined across correlated strikes — the methodology block below has the exact thresholds and caveats.
How Silver Edge Has Scored on Two Years of Markets
The engine doesn't get to grade itself on vibes. We replayed Silver Edge across every settled KXSILVERW daily snapshot from January 2, 2024 through May 14, 2026 — 2,485 settled signals — and scored the model probability against what silver actually did at the public XAG/USD settle.
The calibration table — model probability vs realized hit rate, by bucket:
- When the model said ≥ 80% likely: 258 signals, hit rate 90.3%.
- When the model said 65–80%: 465 signals, hit rate 81.1%.
- When the model said 50–65%: 457 signals, hit rate 68.7%.
- When the model said under 20%: 245 signals, hit rate 24.1%.
- Overall across 2,485 settled signals: 59.6%.
Monotonic across every bucket — higher model probability, higher realized hit rate, in the right shape. That is the property a calibrated signal is supposed to have. Two and a half years of public XAG/USD settles, scored after the fact, no curve-fitting. See the full calibration plots →
A trade we've taken
2026-04-30 · KXSILVERW-26MAY0117 · BUY YES at 55¢ · settled +45¢. Position logged in Daily Plays. Forward log builds out as the engine fires the next live signal.
Why this section exists
Most prediction-market explainers online are screenshots and theory written by people who don't trade. We replayed the model on every silver settle of the last two years and showed the hit rate by confidence bucket above. If the engine had been wrong on the strong calls, the number on row one would read 50%, not 90.
Want the live signal in real time? Pro members get Silver Edge alerts in Discord the second the engine fires. See also: Gold Edge · Oil Edge · Bitcoin Edge · How our commodity engines work. Every silver signal also rolls up into Thee Oracle, the macro dashboard that scores the strongest cross-market moves each session.
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