NFL Predictions This Week (2026): Power Rankings vs. Prediction Markets, Graded Weekly
Board as of
Three answers to βwho is goodβ β the experts' consensus rank, the rank the Kalshi win-total market implies, and our own power rating β for all 32 teams, side by side. Where they split, we flag it; every Tuesday, we grade which one was right.
Quick Answer
As of Sep 29, 2026, entering Week 4, no team sits in the top five on all three views. The biggest split is the Raiders: the market has them 17th, our model 32nd β Kalshi prices their playoff contract at 41%.
Next: the Vikings: the market has them 7th, our model 22nd β Kalshi prices their playoff contract at 71%.
Next: the Chiefs: the market has them 2nd, our model 15th β Kalshi prices their playoff contract at 85%.
Game-by-game? Game-by-game NFL Week 4 predictions β
The board β entering Week 4
Experts = mean of NFL.com, ESPN and FOX ranks (rank numbers only). Market = the Kalshi win-total ladder inverted onto our points scale, ranked. PMP = our PWR, ranked. Expand a row for per-outlet ranks and the season outlook.
1
ARIArizona Cardinals1-2β30291 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ3βΌ1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-6.0 Β· -3.0
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs13% vs 6%
- Win conference1% vs 1%
- Win Super Bowl0% vs 1%
- Projected wins6.5
2
ATLAtlanta Falcons1-2β24251 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²6βΌ6
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-4.0 Β· -1.6
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs34% vs 26%
- Win conference4% vs 2%
- Win Super Bowl2% vs 1%
- Projected wins7.6
3
BALBaltimore Ravens2-1β4106 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²4βΌ1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+5.9 Β· +1.4
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs63% vs 81%
- Win conference10% vs 15%
- Win Super Bowl5% vs 9%
- Projected wins9.9
4
BUFBuffalo Bills3-0β143 Β· Market/PMPΒ·Β·Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+9.3 Β· +3.3
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs82% vs 93%
- Win conference18% vs 23%
- Win Super Bowl9% vs 13%
- Projected wins11.3
5
CARCarolina Panthers1-2β26197 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ4β²6
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-4.2 Β· -1.0
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs35% vs 27%
- Win conference4% vs 2%
- Win Super Bowl2% vs 1%
- Projected wins7.5
6
CHIChicago Bears2-1β1394 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²4β²1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+2.3 Β· +1.4
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs61% vs 51%
- Win conference11% vs 8%
- Win Super Bowl5% vs 4%
- Projected wins9.9
7
CINCincinnati Bengals2-1β9167 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ4β²2
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+4.0 Β· -0.1
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs56% vs 75%
- Win conference7% vs 9%
- Win Super Bowl3% vs 5%
- Projected wins9.5
8
CLECleveland Browns2-1β28271 Β· Market/PMPΒ·Β·Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-4.8 Β· -2.0
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs50% vs 28%
- Win conference3% vs 3%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins9.3
9
DALDallas Cowboys1-2β15132 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ2Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+0.8 Β· +0.8
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs36% vs 47%
- Win conference5% vs 5%
- Win Super Bowl2% vs 3%
- Projected wins8.1
10
DENDenver Broncos2-1β11121 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²3β²2
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+3.8 Β· +1.1
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs60% vs 69%
- Win conference9% vs 9%
- Win Super Bowl4% vs 5%
- Projected wins9.7
11
DETDetroit Lions2-1β8113 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²2βΌ3
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+4.5 Β· +1.3
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs58% vs 69%
- Win conference9% vs 8%
- Win Super Bowl4% vs 4%
- Projected wins9.8
12
GBGreen Bay PackersSplit1-2β19712 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ4βΌ1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-0.9 Β· +1.8
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs32% vs 30%
- Win conference4% vs 3%
- Win Super Bowl2% vs 2%
- Projected wins8.2
13
HOUHouston Texans0-3β16142 Β· Market/PMPΒ·Β·βΌ3
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-0.3 Β· +0.5
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs25% vs 38%
- Win conference3% vs 5%
- Win Super Bowl2% vs 2%
- Projected wins7.3
14
INDIndianapolis Colts1-2β20173 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²3Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-1.1 Β· -0.6
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs34% vs 36%
- Win conference4% vs 2%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins7.9
15
JAXJacksonville Jaguars2-1β1257 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ1Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+3.7 Β· +2.3
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs74% vs 71%
- Win conference16% vs 10%
- Win Super Bowl8% vs 5%
- Projected wins10.4
16
KCKansas City ChiefsSplit3-0β21513 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²2Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+6.1 Β· +0.1
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs67% vs 85%
- Win conference8% vs 14%
- Win Super Bowl4% vs 8%
- Projected wins10.0
17
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-3β25241 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²1βΌ3
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-4.0 Β· -1.5
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs13% vs 14%
- Win conference1% vs 2%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins5.9
18
LARLos Angeles Rams1-2β532 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²1Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+4.7 Β· +4.0
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs57% vs 69%
- Win conference11% vs 19%
- Win Super Bowl6% vs 12%
- Projected wins9.5
19
LVLas Vegas RaidersSplit3-0β173215 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²2Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-0.5 Β· -4.0
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs40% vs 41%
- Win conference3% vs 3%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 3%
- Projected wins8.5
20
MIAMiami Dolphins0-3β32302 Β· Market/PMPΒ·Β·Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-12.3 Β· -3.3
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs6% vs 3%
- Win conference0% vs 1%
- Win Super Bowl0% vs 1%
- Projected wins4.9
21
MINMinnesota VikingsSplit3-0β72215 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²2β²4
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+4.5 Β· -1.4
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs57% vs 71%
- Win conference5% vs 9%
- Win Super Bowl2% vs 4%
- Projected wins9.6
22
NENew England PatriotsSplit1-2β14212 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ2Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+1.0 Β· +4.4
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs65% vs 45%
- Win conference13% vs 5%
- Win Super Bowl7% vs 2%
- Projected wins9.8
23
NONew Orleans Saints1-2β21201 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ3β²4
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-1.3 Β· -1.3
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs35% vs 47%
- Win conference3% vs 3%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 2%
- Projected wins7.6
24
NYGNew York Giants2-1β23230 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ2βΌ1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-3.1 Β· -1.5
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs37% vs 18%
- Win conference4% vs 2%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins8.2
25
NYJNew York Jets1-2β27281 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ2β²1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-4.6 Β· -2.2
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs23% vs 16%
- Win conference2% vs 1%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins7.0
26
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-1β1082 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ3βΌ1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+3.8 Β· +1.5
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs56% vs 65%
- Win conference8% vs 9%
- Win Super Bowl4% vs 4%
- Projected wins9.4
27
PITPittsburgh Steelers2-1β18180 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²2βΌ2
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-0.7 Β· -0.7
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs34% vs 25%
- Win conference3% vs 2%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins8.2
28
SEASeattle Seahawks2-1β615 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ4Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+4.6 Β· +4.6
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs72% vs 72%
- Win conference16% vs 14%
- Win Super Bowl9% vs 8%
- Projected wins10.7
29
SFSan Francisco 49ers3-0β363 Β· Market/PMPΒ·Β·β²6
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR+5.9 Β· +1.8
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs73% vs 79%
- Win conference12% vs 17%
- Win Super Bowl6% vs 10%
- Projected wins10.9
30
TBTampa Bay BuccaneersSplit0-3β29218 Β· Market/PMPΒ·βΌ5βΌ1
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-5.8 Β· -1.3
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs22% vs 17%
- Win conference2% vs 1%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins6.5
31
TENTennessee Titans0-3β31310 Β· Market/PMPΒ·Β·Β·
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-9.4 Β· -3.5
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs9% vs 5%
- Win conference1% vs 1%
- Win Super Bowl0% vs 1%
- Projected wins5.1
32
WASWashington Commanders1-2β22264 Β· Market/PMPΒ·β²7βΌ3
Entering Week 4 β per outlet (rank only)
- NFL.comβ
- ESPNβ
- FOX Sportsβ
- Market-implied PWR Β· PMP PWR-2.3 Β· -1.7
Season outlook β our sim vs. the Kalshi price
- Make playoffs25% vs 20%
- Win conference3% vs 2%
- Win Super Bowl1% vs 1%
- Projected wins7.4
Who was right? β the scoreboard
Each view's pick in every game is its higher-ranked team, on the ranks it held entering that week. Graded Tuesdays. If our model finishes third, this table says so.
The read on each split β Pro
For every flagged team: which Kalshi contract expresses the disagreement, the side our simulation takes against the price, and the position size as a quarter-Kelly fraction of bankroll. Sizing links to the Kelly calculator.
How the three views are built and graded
- Experts. NFL.com, ESPN and FOX Sports power rankings, entered Monday night as rank numbers only. Consensus = mean rank; ties break on median, then our PWR. We never store or reprint an outlet's commentary.
- Market. The rating the Kalshi win-total ladder implies for each team β solved so that a single rating reproduces the market's expected wins across the team's real schedule, opponents held at our PWR β then ranked. Same number as Power Ratings vs. the Market; there is one market-implied rating on this site, not two.
- PMP. Our PWR β points per game above an average team on a neutral field β from the same weekly ratings run as every other NFL page, ranked.
- Snapshot timing. Tuesday, after the daily 12:00 UTC market capture, which lands after Monday Night Football. Ranks are βentering week Nβ.
- Outlook prices. Mid of bid and ask on our own Kalshi capture; a market quoted 10Β’ wide or more is dropped, never shown.
- Grading. For each game, each view's pick is its higher-ranked team on the entering-week ranks. Hit = that team won. Ties skipped. Flag = any two views 8+ places apart; the flagged scorecard credits the view that had the team higher on a win and lower on a loss β a small sample by construction.
- Honest caveat. The game model behind PWR does not beat the closing line and no page here claims it does; its walk-forward record is 59.6% straight up over 3,266 games (calibration ledger). The prop model is the one that passes its backtest. That is exactly why the market column is here: it is the number that already prices everything we know.
Season-Long Predictions
Live model calls against the market β top three from each board.
Model-ranked, all 32
PWR β points per game above an average team on a neutral field.
Seahawks
+3.9
Playoff
Rams
+3.5
Playoff
Patriots
+3.3
Playoff
Biggest futures disagreements
Our simulated season win count against the listed contract.
Dolphins
Model 4.9 wins vs 3.0 line Β· Over
+7pp
LOW
Browns
Model 9.3 wins vs 8.0 line Β· Over
+7pp
LOW
Ravens
Model 9.9 wins vs 12.0 line Β· Under
-6pp
LOW
Playoff, conference & title gaps
Where our postseason probabilities part company with the market.
Browns
Playoff Β· model 50% vs 27% market
+23pp
STRONG
Patriots
Playoff Β· model 65% vs 44% market
+21pp
STRONG
Giants
Playoff Β· model 37% vs 17% market
+20pp
STRONG
The three tightest races
Projected leader and how little separates them from second.
Panthers
NFC South Β· 0.0 clear of Buccaneers
-1.2
Tightest
Patriots
AFC East Β· 0.1 clear of Bills
+3.3
Tightest
Eagles
NFC East Β· 0.3 clear of Cowboys
+0.7
Tightest
Predictions by Week
Game-by-game model predictions for all 18 weeks of the 2026 regular season.
Full PMP power ratings and methodology: /tools/nfl-power-ratings β
NFL Predictions β FAQ
Which NFL power rankings are most accurate?
Graded on "did the higher-ranked team win", season to date: experts 12/16 (75%), the Kalshi-implied market rating 19/32 (59%), our PWR 15/32 (47%). Experts lead through Week 3. The sample is 32 games; the scoreboard on this page updates every Tuesday and the losers stay on it.
What are market-implied power rankings?
The rating a prediction market is implying for a team, solved backwards out of prices we already hold. We take the expected wins implied by a teamβs Kalshi win-total ladder and find the single rating β in points per game above an average team on a neutral field, the same scale as our PWR β that reproduces that many wins across the teamβs real 2026 schedule, holding its opponents at our ratings. Then we rank the 32 ratings. It is not Kalshiβs published power score and it does not read any outletβs list; it is the marketβs money, turned into a rank.
How is this different from the weekly predictions pages?
This board is team-level and season-level: who is actually good, and which view is wrong about it. The weekly pages β starting with Week 4 at /nfl/schedule/week-04 β are game-level: our model win probability against the Kalshi price on every game, with the edge where we disagree. Same model underneath; different question.
Who will make the NFL playoffs in 2026?
Our 10,000-season simulationβs strongest playoff probabilities entering Week 4: Bills 82% (Kalshi 93%), Jaguars 74% (Kalshi 71%), 49ers 73% (Kalshi 79%), Seahawks 72% (Kalshi 72%), Chiefs 67% (Kalshi 85%), Patriots 65% (Kalshi 45%). Every teamβs sim probability sits beside the Kalshi playoff price in the board above β expand a row.
Why do experts and prediction markets disagree?
Three reasons account for most flagged gaps. One-game overreaction: an expert list re-ranks on the last result, while a win-total price moves only as far as one result should move seventeen. Injuries: a quarterback out for a month can drop a team ten places on a list that reflects who plays Sunday, and a few tenths of a win on a market that prices the whole season. Schedule: a market rating is a season-long expectation against a specific schedule; a rank is not. A gap of 8 or more places is flagged here so the grade can say, in hindsight, which view had it right.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 4 predictions β Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 5 predictions β early lines β Next weekβs slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 3 results β Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker β β Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 β Kalshi vs Polymarket β β Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Geneβs longshots
- Grok fantasy football β connect the draft desk β β One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server β the in-season desk, inside your AI agent β β Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges β free tools, no key
- MCP setup β connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute β β One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide β the 61-page book β β All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi β the edge board β β Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market β β All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- 2026 NFL Win Totals β model vs Kalshi β β All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 β projected records + playoff odds β β All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 β every game picked β β Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges β where the model disagrees β β Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges β β Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures β β Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges β β Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets β β How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings β the model methodology anchor β β All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant β the same model, in your AI agent β β Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger β how accurate is it, actually β β The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool β build your own PWR board β β Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator β β Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market β where we disagree β β Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
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Every NFL line that moves before kickoff β before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β