NFL Predictions 2026
Our model's win probability on every game, side by side with the live Kalshi market price. The prediction is the call — the edge is where we disagree with the market.
66.2% accuracy · 6,218 games validated · Walk-forward, no hindsight · Methodology →
This Week's Predictions vs. Market
Every game on the slate — our win probability against the Kalshi price.
Model line = PMP Gridiron Edge favorite & spread. Market = Kalshi-implied probability for that side. Edge = model − market, in percentage points (a positive number means the model likes the favorite more than the market does). The market column fills in as Kalshi posts each game — Week 1 markets are live now.
This Week's Biggest Edges
Edges populate each Wednesday once the season starts
Game edges drop Week 1 — September 2026. Get notified →
Predictions by Week
Game-by-game model predictions for all 18 weeks of the 2026 regular season.
Season-Long Predictions
Power Rankings
All 32 teams on the points-scale, model-ranked
Win Total Futures
Projected season wins vs. the Kalshi line
Championship Odds
Playoff, conference & Super Bowl probabilities
MVP Predictions
Live MVP market mispricings
Division Winners
All 8 divisions: odds, win totals, standings
Game Edges
Tier-graded ML / spread / total edges
How our NFL predictions work
Every prediction starts from DAEPA— Defense-Adjusted EPA — which measures how efficiently a team moves the ball once you adjust for the strength of the defenses it faced. That efficiency rolls into a power rating, and the gap between two teams' ratings becomes a win probability through a Normal model of game margin.
We publish that number next to the live Kalshi contract price. When our probability and the market price diverge by 5 points or more — and the model agrees with the market's own line direction — we flag it as an edge. The backtest is walk-forward: 66.2% straight-up accuracy across 6,218 games, every call made with only the information available before kickoff.
Early in the season, before there's real tape to lean on, we fold in a Madden-ratings prior — which we backtested across 20 years and found carries a real, if modest, early-season signal. Full method on the methodology page.
NFL Predictions — FAQ
How accurate are your NFL predictions?
In a walk-forward backtest of 6,218 NFL games from 2003–2025, our DAEPA model predicted winners straight-up 66.2% of the time with a 0.616 log loss — in line with the leading public opponent-adjusted efficiency benchmarks (~66%). Walk-forward means every prediction was made using only data available before that game, with no hindsight.
How are these NFL predictions made?
Each prediction starts from DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted EPA), which measures how efficiently a team moves the ball once you adjust for the quality of opponents it faced. That rolls into a power rating, which becomes a win probability via a Normal model of margin. We show that number next to the live Kalshi contract price — the prediction is the model call, and the edge is where the two disagree.
What is the difference between this page and the NFL schedule page?
The schedule page is the full weekly grid — every game, kickoff times, and links. This predictions hub leads with the model: this week's win probabilities vs. the market, the biggest edges, and the season-long futures. Use the schedule to browse; use this page for the call.
Do Madden ratings factor into the predictions?
Early in the season, yes — as a prior. We backtested 20 years of Madden ratings (4,237 games) and found a real but modest signal that lives in Weeks 1-9, strongest before the market has real in-season information. So we blend the Madden team composite into the model for the opening weeks and decay it to zero by Week 5. It plugs the preseason hole where every NFL model is weakest.
Are the NFL predictions free?
The full-slate model lines, this-week predictions, power rankings, and MVP market reads are free. Tier-graded game edges (moneyline, spread, total), championship probabilities, player projections, and win-total futures are part of Pro at $14.99/month or $150/year.
Unlock every NFL prediction
Tier-graded game edges, championship probabilities, player projections, and win-total futures — one Pro subscription.