Finance · Analysis
Fed Rate Hike Odds for September 2026: What Kalshi, Polymarket and Wall Street Are Pricing
Two weeks ago prediction markets gave a September rate hike a 1-in-4 chance. After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech it became the favorite in a single afternoon. Here is what Kalshi, Polymarket and the futures market are pricing for the Sept. 16 decision, why the three don't agree, and what a quarter-point hike means for your wallet.
By Benny RicciardiSep 2Sep 2
