Stanley Cup Odds 2027
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs a 10,000-season simulation — the Cup, both conferences, all four divisions, the Presidents' Trophy, playoff qualification and every season-points ladder.
Quick Answer
As of Nov 13, 5:20 AM ET, Our 10,000-season sim makes Carolina Hurricanes the Stanley Cup favourite at 23.8% against 14¢ on Kalshi. Gaps of 5 points or more are flagged; a thin rung is a caption, not a call.
Stanley Cup champion
Eastern Conference champion
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 21¢ | 34.4% | +13.9pp | Kalshi → |
| New Jersey Devils | 14¢ | 25.1% | +10.6pp | Kalshi → |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 11¢ | 15.9% | +5.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Ottawa Senators | 5¢ | 6.6% | +2.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Florida Panthers | 13¢ | 5.3% | -7.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Boston Bruins | 8¢ | 4.8% | -2.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Washington Capitals | 7¢ | 2.6% | -3.9pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Rangers | 4¢ | 1.8% | -1.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | —thin | 1.6% | — | Kalshi → |
| Montreal Canadiens | 12¢ | 1.3% | -10.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Detroit Red Wings | —thin | 0.3% | — | Kalshi → |
| Buffalo Sabres | 4¢ | 0.2% | -3.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 2¢ | 0.0% | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Islanders | 2¢ | 0.0% | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 2¢ | 0.0% | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Philadelphia Flyers | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
Western Conference champion
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 16¢ | 23.3% | +7.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Colorado Avalanche | 19¢ | 20.8% | +1.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Utah Mammoth | 9¢ | 18.4% | +9.9pp | Kalshi → |
| Minnesota Wild | 20¢ | 11.1% | -8.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Edmonton Oilers | 18¢ | 9.8% | -8.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Dallas Stars | 12¢ | 7.2% | -4.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Los Angeles Kings | 3¢ | 3.9% | +1.4pp | Kalshi → |
| St. Louis Blues | —thin | 1.7% | — | Kalshi → |
| Nashville Predators | 2¢ | 1.5% | -0.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Winnipeg Jets | —thin | 1.4% | — | Kalshi → |
| Anaheim Ducks | 5¢ | 1.0% | -3.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Seattle Kraken | —thin | 0.2% | — | Kalshi → |
| Calgary Flames | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 2¢ | 0.0% | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| San Jose Sharks | 3¢ | 0.0% | -2.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Vancouver Canucks | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
Atlantic Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 35¢ | 60.5% | +26.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Boston Bruins | 16¢ | 14.1% | -1.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Ottawa Senators | 10¢ | 13.7% | +4.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Florida Panthers | 14¢ | 7.6% | -6.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Montreal Canadiens | 21¢ | 3.8% | -16.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Detroit Red Wings | —thin | 0.2% | — | Kalshi → |
| Buffalo Sabres | 3¢ | 0.2% | -2.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 2¢ | 0.0% | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
Metropolitan Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 66¢ | 71.0% | +5.5pp | Kalshi → |
| New Jersey Devils | 24¢ | 27.9% | +4.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Washington Capitals | 7¢ | 0.7% | -6.3pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Rangers | 3¢ | 0.3% | -2.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 2¢ | 0.1% | -1.4pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Islanders | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Philadelphia Flyers | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
Central Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 42¢ | 35.6% | -5.9pp | Kalshi → |
| Colorado Avalanche | 27¢ | 34.7% | +8.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Utah Mammoth | 9¢ | 19.9% | +11.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Dallas Stars | 18¢ | 6.5% | -11.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Nashville Predators | 2¢ | 1.8% | +0.3pp | Kalshi → |
| St. Louis Blues | 2¢ | 0.9% | -0.6pp | Kalshi → |
| Winnipeg Jets | 2¢ | 0.5% | -1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Chicago Blackhawks | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
Pacific Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 41¢ | 67.9% | +27.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Edmonton Oilers | 51¢ | 30.0% | -20.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Los Angeles Kings | 2¢ | 1.1% | -0.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Anaheim Ducks | 5¢ | 0.8% | -3.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Seattle Kraken | 2¢ | 0.2% | -1.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Calgary Flames | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| San Jose Sharks | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Vancouver Canucks | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
Presidents' Trophy
Make the playoffs
Season points — sim mean vs the Kalshi ladder
One number per team against the expectation implied by the whole KXNHLSEASONPTS ladder. Rungs expand per team.
| Team | Sim points | Ladder E[pts] | Gap | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Carolina Hurricanes10 rungs
| 119.2 | 111.0 | +8.3 | 100% |
New Jersey Devils10 rungs
| 113.8 | 104.1 | +9.6 | 99% |
Vegas Golden Knights10 rungs
| 110.3 | 103.4 | +6.9 | 100% |
Tampa Bay Lightning10 rungs
| 110.1 | 105.7 | +4.3 | 98% |
Minnesota Wild10 rungs
| 107.8 | 107.5 | +0.3 | 97% |
Colorado Avalanche10 rungs
| 107.5 | 104.5 | +3.0 | 97% |
Edmonton Oilers10 rungs
| 105.3 | 105.2 | +0.0 | 98% |
Utah Mammoth10 rungs
| 104.6 | 97.8 | +6.7 | 92% |
Ottawa Senators10 rungs
| 101.9 | 97.1 | +4.8 | 84% |
Boston Bruins10 rungs
| 101.6 | 100.1 | +1.5 | 83% |
Dallas Stars10 rungs
| 99.6 | 101.6 | -2.0 | 77% |
Florida Panthers10 rungs
| 99.0 | 99.6 | -0.6 | 73% |
Washington Capitals10 rungs
| 97.8 | 98.1 | -0.3 | 68% |
Montreal Canadiens10 rungs
| 96.2 | 101.2 | -5.0 | 57% |
New York Rangers10 rungs
| 95.4 | 91.3 | +4.1 | 57% |
Nashville Predators10 rungs
| 94.6 | 90.8 | +3.8 | 52% |
St. Louis Blues10 rungs
| 92.5 | 87.2 | +5.2 | 40% |
Pittsburgh Penguins10 rungs
| 91.4 | 84.6 | +6.8 | 33% |
Winnipeg Jets10 rungs
| 91.1 | 84.9 | +6.2 | 33% |
Los Angeles Kings10 rungs
| 90.6 | 86.3 | +4.3 | 52% |
Anaheim Ducks10 rungs
| 88.8 | 88.6 | +0.2 | 42% |
Detroit Red Wings10 rungs
| 86.4 | 81.7 | +4.7 | 13% |
Buffalo Sabres10 rungs
| 86.3 | 93.9 | -7.6 | 13% |
New York Islanders10 rungs
| 84.7 | 85.4 | -0.7 | 10% |
Seattle Kraken10 rungs
| 84.0 | 83.7 | +0.3 | 18% |
Columbus Blue Jackets10 rungs
| 83.7 | 85.8 | -2.1 | 7% |
Philadelphia Flyers10 rungs
| 80.0 | 79.5 | +0.6 | 3% |
Toronto Maple Leafs10 rungs
| 79.3 | 85.3 | -6.0 | 3% |
Calgary Flames10 rungs
| 74.1 | 77.6 | -3.5 | 2% |
San Jose Sharks10 rungs
| 71.2 | 82.6 | -11.4 | 1% |
Chicago Blackhawks10 rungs
| 66.9 | 74.8 | -7.9 | 0% |
Vancouver Canucks10 rungs
| 63.2 | 71.2 | -8.0 | 0% |
Awards & player futures — Kalshi prices
Every NHL award and player-season contract Kalshi lists, at the Kalshi price — the mid on a two-sided book, else the ask. We do not model these yet, so there is no sim column and no call.
Hart Trophy (MVP)
- Connor McDavid75¢ Kalshi →
- Kirill Kaprizov13¢ Kalshi →
- Macklin Celebrini5¢ Kalshi →
- Nathan MacKinnon3¢ Kalshi →
- Nikita Kucherov2¢ Kalshi →
- Mitch Marnerask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Nick Suzukiask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Cale Makarask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Pavel Dorofeyevask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Igor Shesterkinask 2¢ Kalshi →
All 39
- Kyle Connor · ask 2¢
- Cole Caufield · ask 2¢
- Leon Draisaitl · 2¢
- Quinn Hughes · 2¢
- Jack Hughes · 1¢
- Auston Matthews · 1¢
- Jack Eichel · 1¢
- Tim Stutzle · ask 1¢
- Connor Bedard · 1¢
- Matthew Tkachuk · 1¢
- Alexis Lafreniere · ask 1¢
- David Pastrnak · 1¢
- Evan Bouchard · ask 1¢
- Sidney Crosby · 1¢
- Andrei Vasilevskiy · ask 1¢
- Connor Hellebuyck · ask 1¢
- William Nylander · ask 1¢
- Brady Tkachuk · ask 1¢
- Mikko Rantanen · ask 1¢
- Clayton Keller · ask 1¢
- Leo Carlsson · ask 1¢
- Sebastian Aho · ask 1¢
- Artemi Panarin · ask 1¢
- Alex Ovechkin · ask 0¢
- Adam Fox · ask 0¢
- Beckett Sennecke · ask 0¢
- Cutter Gauthier · ask 0¢
- Jackson LaCombe · ask 0¢
- Martin Necas · ask 0¢
Vezina Trophy (top goalie)
- Jeremy Swayman18¢ Kalshi →
- Connor Hellebuyck17¢ Kalshi →
- Jesper Wallstedt14¢ Kalshi →
- Jake Oettinger11¢ Kalshi →
- Linus Ullmark9¢ Kalshi →
- Jacob Fowler7¢ Kalshi →
- Ilya Sorokin4¢ Kalshi →
- Pyotr Kochetkov4¢ Kalshi →
- Joel Hofer3¢ Kalshi →
- Anthony Stolarzask 2¢ Kalshi →
All 48
- Andrei Vasilevskiy · ask 2¢
- Darcy Kuemper · ask 2¢
- Dustin Wolf · ask 2¢
- Frederik Andersen · ask 2¢
- Filip Gustavsson · ask 2¢
- Igor Shesterkin · ask 2¢
- Joey Daccord · ask 2¢
- John Gibson · ask 2¢
- Jet Greaves · ask 2¢
- Jacob Markstrom · ask 2¢
- Juuse Saros · ask 2¢
- Karel Vejmelka · ask 2¢
- Lukas Dostal · ask 2¢
- Logan Thompson · 2¢
- Mackenzie Blackwood · ask 2¢
- Sergei Bobrovsky · ask 2¢
- Spencer Knight · ask 2¢
- Samuel Montembeault · ask 2¢
- Stuart Skinner · 2¢
- Thatcher Demko · ask 2¢
- Yaroslav Askarov · ask 2¢
- Carter Hart · 2¢
- Adin Hill · ask 1¢
- Akira Schmid · ask 1¢
- Arturs Silovs · ask 1¢
- Connor Ingram · ask 1¢
- Charlie Lindgren · ask 1¢
- Cam Talbot · ask 1¢
- Devon Levi · ask 1¢
- Dan Vladar · ask 1¢
- Elvis Merzlikins · ask 1¢
- Jordan Binnington · ask 1¢
- Jakub Dobes · ask 1¢
- Joseph Woll · ask 1¢
- Kevin Lankinen · ask 1¢
- Petr Mrazek · ask 1¢
- Sebastian Cossa · ask 1¢
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · ask 1¢
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
- Evan Bouchard40¢ Kalshi →
- Quinn Hughes31¢ Kalshi →
- Cale Makar8¢ Kalshi →
- Lane Hutson6¢ Kalshi →
- Matthew Schaefer3¢ Kalshi →
- Zach Werenskiask 3¢ Kalshi →
- Adam Fox3¢ Kalshi →
- Cam Fowlerask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Charlie McAvoyask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Jakob Chychrunask 2¢ Kalshi →
All 35
- Jackson LaCombe · ask 2¢
- Josh Morrissey · ask 2¢
- Jake Sanderson · ask 2¢
- Luke Hughes · ask 2¢
- Miro Heiskanen · ask 2¢
- Mikhail Sergachev · ask 2¢
- Rasmus Dahlin · ask 2¢
- Roman Josi · ask 2¢
- Moritz Seider · 2¢
- Seth Jones · 2¢
- Brock Faber · ask 1¢
- Dougie Hamilton · ask 1¢
- Darren Raddysh · ask 1¢
- Erik Karlsson · ask 1¢
- Jaccob Slavin · ask 1¢
- Mike Matheson · ask 1¢
- Morgan Rielly · ask 1¢
- Noah Dobson · ask 1¢
- Neal Pionk · ask 1¢
- Philip Broberg · ask 1¢
- Rasmus Sandin · ask 1¢
- Shayne Gostisbehere · ask 1¢
- Shea Theodore · ask 1¢
- Thomas Harley · ask 1¢
- Victor Hedman · ask 1¢
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
- Jacob Fowler38¢ Kalshi →
- Cole Hutson20¢ Kalshi →
- Gavin McKenna15¢ Kalshi →
- Ivar Stenberg14¢ Kalshi →
- James Hagens11¢ Kalshi →
- Roman Kantserov10¢ Kalshi →
- Michael Brandsegg-Nygård5¢ Kalshi →
- Victor Eklund3¢ Kalshi →
- Beckett Senneckeask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Porter Martoneask 2¢ Kalshi →
All 40
- Sebastian Cossa · ask 2¢
- Anton Frondell · 2¢
- Trevor Connelly · 2¢
- Artur Akhtyamov · ask 1¢
- Alex Bump · ask 1¢
- Adam Engström · ask 1¢
- Artyom Levshunov · ask 1¢
- Berkly Catton · ask 1¢
- Bradly Nadeau · ask 1¢
- Caleb Desnoyers · ask 1¢
- Collin Graf · ask 1¢
- Carter Yakemchuk · ask 1¢
- Dalibor Dvorsky · ask 1¢
- Danila Yurov · ask 1¢
- Gabe Perreault · ask 1¢
- Igor Chernyshov · ask 1¢
- Ilya Protas · ask 1¢
- Jonathan Lekkerimaki · ask 1¢
- Konsta Helenius · ask 1¢
- Luca Cagnoni · ask 1¢
- Matthew Savoie · ask 1¢
- Nikita Klepov · ask 1¢
- Ryan Ufko · ask 1¢
- Sam Dickinson · ask 1¢
- Sergei Murashov · ask 1¢
- Sandis Vilmanis · ask 1¢
- Tij Iginla · ask 1¢
- Theo Lindstein · ask 1¢
- Viggo Björck · ask 1¢
- Zeev Buium · ask 1¢
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
- Connor McDavid72¢ Kalshi →
- Brandon Hagelask 62¢ Kalshi →
- Jack Hughesask 17¢ Kalshi →
- Macklin Celebrini8¢ Kalshi →
- Jack Eichel7¢ Kalshi →
- Nathan MacKinnon6¢ Kalshi →
- David Pastrnakask 4¢ Kalshi →
- Nikita Kucherov4¢ Kalshi →
- Leon Draisaitl3¢ Kalshi →
- Auston Matthewsask 3¢ Kalshi →
All 47
- Jason Robertson · ask 3¢
- Kirill Kaprizov · ask 3¢
- Nick Suzuki · ask 3¢
- Cale Makar · ask 2¢
- Kyle Connor · ask 2¢
- Mitch Marner · ask 2¢
- Mikko Rantanen · ask 2¢
- Aleksander Barkov · ask 1¢
- Adam Fox · ask 1¢
- Artemi Panarin · ask 1¢
- Brayden Point · ask 1¢
- Beckett Sennecke · ask 1¢
- Connor Bedard · ask 1¢
- Cole Caufield · ask 1¢
- Cutter Gauthier · ask 1¢
- Clayton Keller · ask 1¢
- Dylan Larkin · ask 1¢
- Evan Bouchard · ask 1¢
- Jesper Bratt · ask 1¢
- Jackson LaCombe · ask 1¢
- Leo Carlsson · ask 1¢
- Logan Cooley · ask 1¢
- Matt Boldy · ask 1¢
- Matvei Michkov · ask 1¢
- Martin Necas · ask 1¢
- Matthew Tkachuk · ask 1¢
- Quinn Hughes · ask 1¢
- Roope Hintz · ask 1¢
- Robert Thomas · ask 1¢
- Sebastian Aho · ask 1¢
- Sidney Crosby · ask 1¢
- Seth Jarvis · ask 1¢
- Sam Reinhart · ask 1¢
- Tim Stutzle · ask 1¢
- Tage Thompson · ask 1¢
- Wyatt Johnston · ask 1¢
- William Nylander · ask 1¢
Rocket Richard Trophy (goals leader)
- Brady Tkachukask 75¢ Kalshi →
- Mikko Rantanenask 74¢ Kalshi →
- Jack Hughesask 73¢ Kalshi →
- Connor Bedardask 70¢ Kalshi →
- Sam Reinhartask 70¢ Kalshi →
- Alex Ovechkinask 61¢ Kalshi →
- Kyle Connorask 60¢ Kalshi →
- Matt Boldyask 58¢ Kalshi →
- Filip Forsbergask 52¢ Kalshi →
- Leon Draisaitlask 36¢ Kalshi →
All 44
- Dylan Guenther · ask 31¢
- Kirill Kaprizov · 31¢
- Matthew Tkachuk · ask 23¢
- Nathan MacKinnon · ask 17¢
- Pavel Dorofeyev · ask 17¢
- Connor McDavid · 12¢
- Jason Robertson · ask 11¢
- Auston Matthews · 11¢
- Cole Caufield · 10¢
- Macklin Celebrini · 9¢
- Nikita Kucherov · ask 6¢
- Tage Thompson · ask 6¢
- Cutter Gauthier · 6¢
- David Pastrnak · ask 5¢
- Wyatt Johnston · ask 5¢
- Zach Hyman · ask 5¢
- Alex DeBrincat · ask 3¢
- William Nylander · ask 3¢
- Adrian Kempe · ask 2¢
- Brandon Hagel · ask 2¢
- Dylan Larkin · ask 2¢
- Steven Stamkos · ask 2¢
- Artemi Panarin · ask 1¢
- Alex Tuch · ask 1¢
- Brock Boeser · ask 1¢
- Chris Kreider · ask 1¢
- Jack Eichel · ask 1¢
- Jake Guentzel · ask 1¢
- Jordan Kyrou · ask 1¢
- Kevin Fiala · ask 1¢
- Logan Stankoven · ask 1¢
- Matvei Michkov · ask 1¢
- Mark Stone · ask 1¢
- Seth Jarvis · ask 1¢
Jack Adams Award (coach)
- Marco Sturm9¢ Kalshi →
- Mike Babcockask 7¢ Kalshi →
- Sheldon Keefe4¢ Kalshi →
- Travis Green3¢ Kalshi →
- Andrew Brunetteask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Dan Museask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Glen Gulutzanask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Jared Bednarask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Jeff Blashillask 2¢ Kalshi →
- Jon Cooperask 2¢ Kalshi →
All 32
- Joel Quenneville · ask 2¢
- Lane Lambert · ask 2¢
- Manny Malhotra · ask 2¢
- Martin St. Louis · ask 2¢
- Peter DeBoer · ask 2¢
- Peter Laviolette · ask 2¢
- Rick Bowness · ask 2¢
- Rod Brind'Amour · ask 2¢
- Ryan Craig · ask 2¢
- Ryan Huska · ask 2¢
- Rick Tocchet · ask 2¢
- Ryan Warsofsky · ask 2¢
- Scott Arniel · ask 2¢
- Todd McLellan · ask 2¢
- Andre Tourigny · 2¢
- Jim Hiller · 2¢
- John Hynes · 2¢
- Jim Montgomery · 2¢
- Lindy Ruff · 2¢
- Mike Sullivan · 2¢
- Paul Maurice · 2¢
- Spencer Carbery · 2¢
Longest regular-season win streak
- New Jersey Devilsask 15¢ Kalshi →
- Edmonton Oilersask 14¢ Kalshi →
- Tampa Bay Lightningask 14¢ Kalshi →
- Florida Panthersask 13¢ Kalshi →
- Colorado Avalanche11¢ Kalshi →
- Los Angeles Kingsask 11¢ Kalshi →
- New York Rangersask 11¢ Kalshi →
- Ottawa Senatorsask 11¢ Kalshi →
- Pittsburgh Penguinsask 11¢ Kalshi →
- Anaheim Ducksask 10¢ Kalshi →
All 32
- Philadelphia Flyers · ask 10¢
- Seattle Kraken · ask 10¢
- Calgary Flames · ask 9¢
- Vancouver Canucks · ask 9¢
- Nashville Predators · ask 8¢
- San Jose Sharks · ask 8¢
- St. Louis Blues · ask 8¢
- Buffalo Sabres · ask 7¢
- Dallas Stars · ask 7¢
- Minnesota Wild · ask 7¢
- Carolina Hurricanes · 7¢
- Utah Mammoth · ask 6¢
- Boston Bruins · ask 5¢
- Montréal Canadiens · ask 5¢
- New York Islanders · ask 5¢
- Toronto Maple Leafs · ask 5¢
- Vegas Golden Knights · ask 5¢
- Winnipeg Jets · ask 5¢
- Washington Capitals · ask 5¢
- Columbus Blue Jackets · ask 4¢
- Chicago Blackhawks · ask 4¢
- Detroit Red Wings · 3¢
Player season goals
| Player | 20+ | 40+ | 50+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin | — Kalshi → | — | — |
| Will Smith | — Kalshi → | 4¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Frank Nazar | — Kalshi → | — | — |
| Patrick Kane | — Kalshi → | — | — |
| Sidney Crosby | — Kalshi → | — | — |
| Matthew Schaefer | — Kalshi → | — | — |
| Alex DeBrincat | — | 25¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Adrian Kempe | — | 26¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Auston Matthews | — | 56¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Alex Tuch | — | 41¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Brandon Hagel | — | 66¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Brady Tkachuk | — | 22¢ Kalshi → | — |
| Connor Bedard | — | 7¢ Kalshi → | ask 91¢ Kalshi → |
| Cole Caufield | — | 68¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Cutter Gauthier | — | 91¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Connor McDavid | — | 48¢ Kalshi → | ask 53¢ Kalshi → |
| Drake Batherson | — | 19¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Dylan Guenther | — | 6¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Dylan Larkin | — | 3¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| David Pastrnak | — | 35¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Filip Forsberg | — | 23¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Ivan Demidov | — | 2¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Jake Guentzel | — | 52¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Jack Hughes | — | 30¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
| Jason Robertson | — | 56¢ Kalshi → | — Kalshi → |
Top 25 of 46 by price.
Player season points
Top 25 of 30 by price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Stanley Cup champion
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 14¢14.8¢ after fees | 13¢14.1¢ after fees | Even |
| Colorado Avalanche | 11¢11.7¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Polymarket US1.9¢ less |
| Edmonton Oilers | 10¢10.6¢ after fees | 11¢11.9¢ after fees | Kalshi1.3¢ less |
| Minnesota Wild | 10¢10.6¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Florida Panthers | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 7¢7.6¢ after fees | Even |
| New Jersey Devils | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 7¢7.6¢ after fees | Even |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 7¢7.5¢ after fees | 8¢8.7¢ after fees | Kalshi1.2¢ less |
| Dallas Stars | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | 6¢6.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Montreal Canadiens | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Utah Mammoth | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | Even |
| Boston Bruins | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | Even |
| Washington Capitals | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | Kalshi1.2¢ less |
| Ottawa Senators | 3¢3.2¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Even |
| Anaheim Ducks | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | Even |
| Buffalo Sabres | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | Even |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Eastern Conference champion
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 21¢22.2¢ after fees | 22¢23.6¢ after fees | Kalshi1.5¢ less |
| New Jersey Devils | 15¢15.9¢ after fees | 16¢17.3¢ after fees | Kalshi1.4¢ less |
| Florida Panthers | 13¢13.8¢ after fees | 14¢15.1¢ after fees | Kalshi1.4¢ less |
| Montreal Canadiens | 13¢13.8¢ after fees | 6¢6.5¢ after fees | Polymarket US7.3¢ less |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 11¢11.7¢ after fees | 12¢13¢ after fees | Kalshi1.3¢ less |
| Boston Bruins | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Kalshi1.3¢ less |
| Washington Capitals | 7¢7.5¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Kalshi2.3¢ less |
| Buffalo Sabres | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | Even |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Western Conference champion
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 20¢21.1¢ after fees | 19¢20.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Edmonton Oilers | 20¢21.1¢ after fees | 20¢21.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Minnesota Wild | 20¢21.1¢ after fees | 15¢16.2¢ after fees | Polymarket US4.9¢ less |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 16¢16.9¢ after fees | 16¢17.3¢ after fees | Even |
| Dallas Stars | 12¢12.7¢ after fees | 12¢13¢ after fees | Even |
| Utah Mammoth | 9¢9.6¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Anaheim Ducks | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | Polymarket US2¢ less |
| Los Angeles Kings | 3¢3.2¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Even |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Presidents' Trophy
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 29¢30.4¢ after fees | 29¢31¢ after fees | Even |
| Minnesota Wild | 12¢12.7¢ after fees | 13¢14.1¢ after fees | Kalshi1.3¢ less |
| Edmonton Oilers | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 11¢11.9¢ after fees | Kalshi3.4¢ less |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Kalshi1.3¢ less |
| Colorado Avalanche | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Polymarket US3.1¢ less |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | 6¢6.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Boston Bruins | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Florida Panthers | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | Even |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Atlantic Division winner
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 35¢36.6¢ after fees | 38¢40.2¢ after fees | Kalshi3.6¢ less |
| Montreal Canadiens | 24¢25.3¢ after fees | 20¢21.5¢ after fees | Polymarket US3.8¢ less |
| Boston Bruins | 16¢16.9¢ after fees | 21¢22.6¢ after fees | Kalshi5.6¢ less |
| Florida Panthers | 15¢15.9¢ after fees | 11¢11.9¢ after fees | Polymarket US4¢ less |
| Ottawa Senators | 10¢10.6¢ after fees | 11¢11.9¢ after fees | Kalshi1.3¢ less |
| Buffalo Sabres | 3¢3.2¢ after fees | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | Kalshi2.2¢ less |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | Kalshi2.2¢ less |
| Detroit Red Wings | no two-sided book | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Metropolitan Division winner
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 66¢67.6¢ after fees | 66¢68.1¢ after fees | Even |
| New Jersey Devils | 28¢29.4¢ after fees | 21¢22.6¢ after fees | Polymarket US6.8¢ less |
| Washington Capitals | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 11¢11.9¢ after fees | Kalshi3.4¢ less |
| New York Rangers | 3¢3.2¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Even |
| New York Islanders | no two-sided book | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | — |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Kalshi1.1¢ less |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | no two-sided book | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
| Philadelphia Flyers | no two-sided book | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Central Division winner
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 42¢43.7¢ after fees | 43¢45.3¢ after fees | Kalshi1.6¢ less |
| Colorado Avalanche | 27¢28.4¢ after fees | 26¢27.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Dallas Stars | 20¢21.1¢ after fees | 17¢18.3¢ after fees | Polymarket US2.8¢ less |
| Utah Mammoth | 9¢9.6¢ after fees | 13¢14.1¢ after fees | Kalshi4.5¢ less |
| Nashville Predators | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Kalshi1.1¢ less |
| St. Louis Blues | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Kalshi1.1¢ less |
| Winnipeg Jets | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | Even |
| Chicago Blackhawks | no two-sided book | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | — |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Pacific Division winner
The same 2026-27 question on both venues, club by club · cost to buy after fees · prices only, no sim
| Team | Kalshi5:38 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner5:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 53¢54.7¢ after fees | 52¢54.4¢ after fees | Even |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 41¢42.7¢ after fees | 37¢39.2¢ after fees | Polymarket US3.5¢ less |
| Anaheim Ducks | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | Polymarket US3.1¢ less |
| San Jose Sharks | no two-sided book | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | — |
| Los Angeles Kings | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | Kalshi2.2¢ less |
| Seattle Kraken | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | Kalshi2.2¢ less |
| Calgary Flames | no two-sided book | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
| Vancouver Canucks | no two-sided book | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
Best price today, after fees →
Awards and player-season contracts are shown at the Kalshi price only — we do not model them yet. Trade responsibly — a gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.
Stanley Cup odds — frequently asked
Where do these Stanley Cup odds come from?
The Kalshi mid on each KXNHL contract beside our own 10,000-season Monte Carlo from the Goal Light game model — two different questions answered two ways, never averaged. The Kalshi vs Polymarket US table prices the same futures on Polymarket US from its own order book.
Which Polymarket prices are on this page?
Polymarket US only, the CFTC-regulated exchange US traders use, in the Kalshi vs Polymarket US table. Polymarket.com is a separate international site and is view-only for US users.
How is the playoff bracket simulated?
Each remaining regular-season game is drawn from the model (no goalie information), standings follow the NHL format (top three per division plus two wild cards per conference), and every series is a best-of-seven with 2-2-1-1-1 home ice priced off the same per-game probabilities.
What is the season-points ladder?
Kalshi lists ten "X+ points" contracts per team. We show one number — the sim's mean points — against the expectation implied by the whole ladder. A single rung near 50¢ is a median, not a mean, so we never compare the mean to one rung.
How often does this page refresh?
The simulation re-runs at 6:15 AM ET after the night's results; Kalshi prices refresh again at 6:35 PM ET.
Is a gap a recommendation?
No. A gap is disagreement between the sim and a market on a long-dated contract, with fees and a season of variance in between. Read it as where the market and the model differ, then size any position yourself on the Kelly calculator.