Stanley Cup Odds 2027
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs a 10,000-season simulation — the Cup, both conferences, all four divisions, the Presidents' Trophy, playoff qualification and every season-points ladder.
Quick Answer
As of Sep 28, 3:05 PM ET, Our 10,000-season sim makes Carolina Hurricanes the Stanley Cup favourite at 15.5% against 8¢ on Kalshi and 10¢ on Polymarket's international book. Gaps of 5 points or more are flagged; a thin rung is a caption, not a call.
Stanley Cup champion
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket (intl) | Sim | Gap | Venue gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 8¢ | 10¢ | 15.5% | +8.0pp | -2.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Ottawa Senators | 3¢ | 3¢ | 15.2% | +12.7pp | -0.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 6¢ | 7¢ | 12.6% | +7.1pp | -1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Colorado Avalanche | 11¢ | 12¢ | 12.1% | +1.6pp | -1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Edmonton Oilers | 9¢ | 9¢ | 6.3% | -2.2pp | -0.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Minnesota Wild | 6¢ | 5¢ | 4.7% | -0.8pp | +1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 2¢ | 2¢ | 4.6% | +3.1pp | -0.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Dallas Stars | 6¢ | 6¢ | 4.4% | -1.1pp | 0.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 6¢ | 7¢ | 4.0% | -1.5pp | -1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 2¢ | 2¢ | 3.8% | +2.3pp | -0.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Anaheim Ducks | 3¢ | 2¢ | 3.3% | +0.8pp | +0.1pp | Kalshi → |
| New Jersey Devils | 4¢ | 2¢ | 2.2% | -1.3pp | +1.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 2¢ | 2¢ | 2.1% | +0.6pp | -0.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Utah Mammoth | 2¢ | 3¢ | 1.7% | +0.2pp | -1.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Los Angeles Kings | 3¢ | 2¢ | 1.4% | -1.1pp | +0.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Detroit Red Wings | —thin | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| New York Islanders | —thin | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| St. Louis Blues | —thin | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Washington Capitals | 6¢ | 4¢ | 0.6% | -4.9pp | +1.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Buffalo Sabres | 4¢ | 2¢ | 0.5% | -3.0pp | +1.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Florida Panthers | 13¢ | 11¢ | 0.5% | -12.0pp | +2.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Montreal Canadiens | 5¢ | 6¢ | 0.5% | -4.0pp | -1.3pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Rangers | —thin | 2¢ | 0.5% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Winnipeg Jets | —thin | 1¢ | 0.4% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Boston Bruins | —thin | 1¢ | 0.2% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| San Jose Sharks | 5¢ | 3¢ | 0.2% | -4.3pp | +1.6pp | Kalshi → |
| Seattle Kraken | —thin | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Nashville Predators | —thin | 1¢ | 0.1% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Vancouver Canucks | —thin | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Calgary Flames | —thin | 0¢ | 0.0% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0.0% | -2.5pp | -0.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Chicago Blackhawks | —thin | 0¢ | 0.0% | — | — | Kalshi → |
Eastern Conference champion
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket (intl) | Sim | Gap | Venue gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 4¢ | 4¢ | 26.2% | +22.7pp | -0.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 18¢ | 19¢ | 25.6% | +8.1pp | -1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 2¢ | 4¢ | 9.3% | +7.8pp | -2.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 13¢ | 14¢ | 9.2% | -3.3pp | -1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 3¢ | 7¢ | 8.2% | +5.2pp | -3.5pp | Kalshi → |
| New Jersey Devils | 7¢ | 4¢ | 4.8% | -1.8pp | +2.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 3¢ | 4¢ | 4.7% | +2.2pp | -1.9pp | Kalshi → |
| Detroit Red Wings | —thin | 1¢ | 2.2% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| New York Islanders | 3¢ | 1¢ | 2.1% | -0.5pp | +1.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Washington Capitals | 11¢ | 10¢ | 1.7% | -9.3pp | +1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Buffalo Sabres | 7¢ | 4¢ | 1.5% | -5.0pp | +2.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Florida Panthers | 20¢ | 20¢ | 1.3% | -18.2pp | 0.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Montreal Canadiens | 8¢ | 8¢ | 1.2% | -6.3pp | -0.3pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Rangers | 4¢ | 1¢ | 1.1% | -2.4pp | +2.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Boston Bruins | 2¢ | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.6pp | +0.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 3¢ | 4¢ | 0.0% | -2.5pp | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
Western Conference champion
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket (intl) | Sim | Gap | Venue gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 12¢ | 14¢ | 23.2% | +11.7pp | -3.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Colorado Avalanche | 20¢ | 22¢ | 22.3% | +2.8pp | -2.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Edmonton Oilers | 14¢ | 16¢ | 12.7% | -1.8pp | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Minnesota Wild | 12¢ | 11¢ | 10.7% | -0.8pp | +1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Dallas Stars | 11¢ | 12¢ | 10.0% | -0.5pp | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Anaheim Ducks | 5¢ | 6¢ | 7.6% | +3.1pp | -1.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Utah Mammoth | 6¢ | 6¢ | 4.2% | -1.4pp | 0.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Los Angeles Kings | 4¢ | 4¢ | 3.7% | +0.2pp | -0.6pp | Kalshi → |
| St. Louis Blues | 2¢ | 4¢ | 2.2% | +0.2pp | -2.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Winnipeg Jets | 2¢ | 2¢ | 1.2% | -0.3pp | -0.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Seattle Kraken | —thin | 0¢ | 0.9% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| San Jose Sharks | 9¢ | 10¢ | 0.8% | -8.2pp | -0.9pp | Kalshi → |
| Nashville Predators | 2¢ | 1¢ | 0.3% | -1.2pp | +0.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Vancouver Canucks | —thin | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Calgary Flames | —thin | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 2¢ | 0¢ | 0.0% | -1.5pp | +1.1pp | Kalshi → |
Atlantic Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 8¢thin | 70.2% | +62.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 26¢ | 17.5% | -8.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Detroit Red Wings | 2¢ | 3.6% | +2.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Buffalo Sabres | 9¢ | 2.8% | -6.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Florida Panthers | 35¢thin | 2.6% | -31.9pp | Kalshi → |
| Montreal Canadiens | 14¢ | 1.9% | -11.6pp | Kalshi → |
| Boston Bruins | 2¢ | 1.5% | -0.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 6¢ | 0.1% | -5.9pp | Kalshi → |
Metropolitan Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 43¢ | 53.2% | +10.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 3¢ | 15.4% | +12.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 5¢ | 12.3% | +7.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 5¢ | 6.6% | +2.1pp | Kalshi → |
| New Jersey Devils | 12¢ | 6.4% | -5.1pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Islanders | 3¢ | 2.7% | +0.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Washington Capitals | 26¢ | 2.0% | -23.5pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Rangers | 6¢ | 1.4% | -4.6pp | Kalshi → |
Central Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 37¢ | 49.1% | +12.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Dallas Stars | 20¢ | 19.4% | -0.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Minnesota Wild | 24¢ | 19.3% | -4.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Utah Mammoth | 11¢ | 7.2% | -3.8pp | Kalshi → |
| St. Louis Blues | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Winnipeg Jets | 2¢ | 1.7% | +0.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Nashville Predators | 2¢ | 0.3% | -1.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 2¢ | 0.0% | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
Pacific Division
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 28¢ | 53.3% | +24.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Edmonton Oilers | 36¢ | 24.8% | -10.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Anaheim Ducks | 11¢ | 13.7% | +3.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Los Angeles Kings | 10¢ | 5.5% | -4.5pp | Kalshi → |
| San Jose Sharks | 14¢ | 1.3% | -12.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Seattle Kraken | 2¢ | 1.3% | -0.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Vancouver Canucks | 2¢ | 0.2% | -1.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Calgary Flames | 2¢ | 0.1% | -1.4pp | Kalshi → |
Presidents' Trophy
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | —thin | 19.8% | — | Kalshi → |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 8¢ | 19.5% | +11.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Vegas Golden Knights | —thin | 15.3% | — | Kalshi → |
| Colorado Avalanche | 13¢ | 14.3% | +1.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Edmonton Oilers | 8¢ | 5.4% | -2.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Minnesota Wild | —thin | 3.9% | — | Kalshi → |
| Dallas Stars | —thin | 3.8% | — | Kalshi → |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | —thin | 3.7% | — | Kalshi → |
| Philadelphia Flyers | —thin | 3.1% | — | Kalshi → |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | —thin | 2.6% | — | Kalshi → |
| Anaheim Ducks | —thin | 2.3% | — | Kalshi → |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | —thin | 1.4% | — | Kalshi → |
| New Jersey Devils | 4¢ | 1.2% | -2.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Utah Mammoth | —thin | 0.9% | — | Kalshi → |
| Los Angeles Kings | —thin | 0.7% | — | Kalshi → |
| New York Islanders | —thin | 0.4% | — | Kalshi → |
| St. Louis Blues | —thin | 0.3% | — | Kalshi → |
| Detroit Red Wings | —thin | 0.2% | — | Kalshi → |
| Washington Capitals | —thin | 0.2% | — | Kalshi → |
| Buffalo Sabres | —thin | 0.2% | — | Kalshi → |
| Winnipeg Jets | —thin | 0.2% | — | Kalshi → |
| Florida Panthers | 14¢ | 0.1% | -13.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Montreal Canadiens | —thin | 0.1% | — | Kalshi → |
| New York Rangers | —thin | 0.1% | — | Kalshi → |
| Seattle Kraken | —thin | 0.1% | — | Kalshi → |
| Boston Bruins | —thin | 0.1% | — | Kalshi → |
| San Jose Sharks | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Nashville Predators | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Calgary Flames | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Chicago Blackhawks | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
| Vancouver Canucks | —thin | 0.0% | — | Kalshi → |
Make the playoffs
| Team | Kalshi | Sim | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 49¢thin | 97.2% | +48.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 85¢ | 96.0% | +11.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Colorado Avalanche | 93¢ | 95.5% | +2.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 89¢ | 95.3% | +6.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Edmonton Oilers | 85¢ | 87.4% | +2.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Dallas Stars | 81¢ | 84.7% | +3.6pp | Kalshi → |
| Minnesota Wild | 81¢ | 84.2% | +3.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 81¢ | 77.2% | -3.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Anaheim Ducks | 54¢ | 77.1% | +23.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 32¢thin | 77.0% | +45.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 47¢ | 73.0% | +26.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Utah Mammoth | 64¢ | 62.5% | -1.5pp | Kalshi → |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 41¢ | 58.6% | +17.6pp | Kalshi → |
| New Jersey Devils | 57¢ | 57.7% | +0.2pp | Kalshi → |
| Los Angeles Kings | 61¢ | 57.4% | -3.1pp | Kalshi → |
| St. Louis Blues | 37¢ | 43.6% | +6.6pp | Kalshi → |
| Detroit Red Wings | 28¢ | 41.9% | +13.4pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Islanders | 30¢ | 39.4% | +9.9pp | Kalshi → |
| Buffalo Sabres | 56¢ | 35.5% | -20.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Washington Capitals | 73¢thin | 33.9% | -39.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Florida Panthers | 87¢thin | 31.7% | -54.8pp | Kalshi → |
| Winnipeg Jets | 28¢ | 30.1% | +2.1pp | Kalshi → |
| Montreal Canadiens | 65¢thin | 29.4% | -35.1pp | Kalshi → |
| San Jose Sharks | 58¢ | 28.3% | -29.7pp | Kalshi → |
| New York Rangers | 39¢ | 25.7% | -13.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Seattle Kraken | 19¢ | 25.4% | +7.0pp | Kalshi → |
| Boston Bruins | 32¢ | 24.2% | -7.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Nashville Predators | 28¢ | 13.2% | -15.3pp | Kalshi → |
| Vancouver Canucks | 12¢ | 8.3% | -3.7pp | Kalshi → |
| Calgary Flames | 13¢ | 4.4% | -8.6pp | Kalshi → |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 52¢thin | 2.1% | -49.4pp | Kalshi → |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 22¢ | 2.0% | -19.5pp | Kalshi → |
Season points — sim mean vs the Kalshi ladder
One number per team against the expectation implied by the whole KXNHLSEASONPTS ladder. Rungs expand per team.
| Team | Sim points | Ladder E[pts] | Gap | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ottawa Senators10 rungs
| 108.7 | 96.8 | +11.9 | 97% |
Carolina Hurricanes10 rungs
| 108.6 | 106.1 | +2.5 | 95% |
Vegas Golden Knights10 rungs
| 107.4 | 103.8 | +3.6 | 96% |
Colorado Avalanche10 rungs
| 106.9 | 108.4 | -1.5 | 95% |
Edmonton Oilers10 rungs
| 102.1 | 105.3 | -3.3 | 87% |
Dallas Stars10 rungs
| 101.1 | 102.8 | -1.7 | 85% |
Minnesota Wild10 rungs
| 100.9 | 103.1 | -2.2 | 84% |
Pittsburgh Penguins10 rungs
| 100.6 | 90.5 | +10.1 | 77% |
Philadelphia Flyers10 rungs
| 99.6 | 93.9 | +5.7 | 73% |
Tampa Bay Lightning10 rungs
| 99.1 | 103.9 | -4.8 | 77% |
Anaheim Ducks10 rungs
| 98.6 | 94.5 | +4.1 | 77% |
Columbus Blue Jackets10 rungs
| 96.4 | 93.4 | +3.0 | 59% |
New Jersey Devils10 rungs
| 96.2 | 98.4 | -2.2 | 58% |
Utah Mammoth10 rungs
| 95.3 | 97.0 | -1.6 | 63% |
Los Angeles Kings10 rungs
| 94.2 | 95.9 | -1.7 | 57% |
New York Islanders10 rungs
| 92.3 | 89.9 | +2.4 | 39% |
St. Louis Blues10 rungs
| 91.4 | 88.3 | +3.1 | 44% |
Detroit Red Wings10 rungs
| 91.3 | — | — | 42% |
Washington Capitals10 rungs
| 91.0 | 102.6 | -11.6 | 34% |
Buffalo Sabres10 rungs
| 89.8 | 97.8 | -8.0 | 36% |
New York Rangers10 rungs
| 89.1 | 90.9 | -1.8 | 26% |
Florida Panthers10 rungs
| 89.1 | 107.5 | -18.4 | 32% |
Montreal Canadiens10 rungs
| 88.4 | 99.7 | -11.3 | 29% |
Winnipeg Jets10 rungs
| 88.4 | 86.4 | +1.9 | 30% |
San Jose Sharks10 rungs
| 87.8 | — | — | 28% |
Boston Bruins10 rungs
| 87.2 | 88.8 | -1.6 | 24% |
Seattle Kraken10 rungs
| 87.1 | — | — | 25% |
Nashville Predators10 rungs
| 83.3 | 87.1 | -3.9 | 13% |
Vancouver Canucks10 rungs
| 80.9 | 76.5 | +4.3 | 8% |
Calgary Flames10 rungs
| 77.8 | — | — | 4% |
Toronto Maple Leafs10 rungs
| 75.0 | 95.2 | -20.2 | 2% |
Chicago Blackhawks10 rungs
| 74.6 | 80.6 | -6.0 | 2% |
Awards (Hart, Vezina, Norris, Calder, Richard, Ross, Adams) trade on Kalshi and Polymarket; we do not model them. Trade responsibly — a gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do these Stanley Cup odds come from?
Three places, side by side: the Kalshi mid on each KXNHL contract, the Polymarket international-book price on the 2026-27 champion event, and our own 10,000-season Monte Carlo from the Goal Light game model. They are three different questions answered three ways — never averaged.
Why label Polymarket "international"?
Polymarket is two venues — the international on-chain book and Polymarket US — and their prices are not interchangeable. The price we ingest is the international book, so every Polymarket number here says so.
How is the playoff bracket simulated?
Each remaining regular-season game is drawn from the model (no goalie information), standings follow the NHL format (top three per division plus two wild cards per conference), and every series is a best-of-seven with 2-2-1-1-1 home ice priced off the same per-game probabilities.
What is the season-points ladder?
Kalshi lists ten "X+ points" contracts per team. We show one number — the sim's mean points — against the expectation implied by the whole ladder. A single rung near 50¢ is a median, not a mean, so we never compare the mean to one rung.
How often does this page refresh?
The simulation re-runs at 6:15 AM ET after the night's results; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh again at 6:35 PM ET.
Is a gap a recommendation?
No. A gap is disagreement between the sim and a market on a long-dated contract, with fees and a season of variance in between. Read it as where the market and the model differ, then size any position yourself on the Kelly calculator.