Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

The model does not think this one is close. The Broncos rate 13th of 32 at +1.2, the Raiders 32nd at -5.8, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Broncos by 9.5 — 76% to win. That is the 2nd-widest gap among the 13 games on the Week 11 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +0.4 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 4.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 2.5-point gap.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1) — 3.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Broncos' entire schedule.

On the calendar, the Raiders are on 7 days and the Broncos come off their bye. The Raiders come in off the Seahawks, the Broncos off the Panthers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.

On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.

A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 139 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 75-80% range won 74% of those. So a 76% Broncos number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 26 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.

There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Broncos YES is only worth buying at 71c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 76%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Raiders at 19c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the AFC West hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.