Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 10 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 11 2026 — 71% to win, and the 13th-widest model gap in Week 11. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 66c or below (or Raiders at 24c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-6.0
DEN
+1.2
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Raiders
29%
model win prob
Broncos
71%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
40%
Madden 27
60%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 66c or below, or the Raiders at 24c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Raiders at Broncos
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Broncos −14.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Broncos by 10
The model does not think this one is close. The Broncos rate 12th of 32 at +1.2, the Raiders 32nd at -6.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Broncos by 10 — 71% to win. That is the 13th-widest gap among the 13 games on the Week 11 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +0.4 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 4.6 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 2.6-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1) — 3.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Broncos' entire schedule.
On the calendar, the Raiders are on 7 days and the Broncos come off their bye. The Raiders come in off the Seahawks, the Broncos off the Panthers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 15, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Broncos number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Broncos YES is only worth buying at 66c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 71%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Raiders at 24c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Broncos)
- 71%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Broncos at 66c or below, or the Raiders at 24c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Raiders vs Broncos trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Broncos in Week 11?
Our power-rating model picks the Broncos by 10 points, a 71% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Broncos 26, Raiders 16 on a ratings-implied 42.0-point total. The Broncos rate 12th of 32 (+1.2) and the Raiders 32nd (-6.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 10-point line comes from a 7.2-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 29% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 66c or below, or the Raiders at 24c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Broncos?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Broncos at 66c or below or the Raiders at 24c or below, off a 10-point line.
Can you trade Raiders vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 11 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV22LVDEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 71% on a team like the Broncos?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Broncos at 71% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 10-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Raiders–Broncos, Week 15 →
More Week 11 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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