Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 4 in Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 5 2026 — 62% to win, and Cardinals 30th of 32, Lions 7th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 33c or below (or Lions at 57c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DET
+2.5
ARI
-3.7
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Lions
62%
model win prob
Cardinals
38%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
60%
Madden 27
40%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 33c or below, or the Lions at 57c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Lions at Cardinals
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −3.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 more rungsCardinals −4.5 → Cardinals −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Lions at Cardinals
The Lions travel to face the Cardinals in Week 5. Our power ratings put the Cardinals 30th of 32 at -3.7 (Below Avg tier) and the Lions 7th at +2.5 (Playoff tier) — a 6.2-point gap that home field narrows to a 4-point line on the Lions, 62% to win. It rates as the 15th-widest of the 15 games in Week 5.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.3 (10th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (30th) — 4.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Lions defense (+0.7, 6th), a 1.4-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.6 (11th of 32) to -0.1 (30th).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13) — 3.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Lions'.
The series is dead level: 8-8 across 17 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Lions won 20-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 0-4. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Cardinals 38%, Lions 62%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Cardinals contracts a buy at 33c or below and Lions contracts a buy at 57c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Lions vs Cardinals on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI
- Market-implied (Cardinals)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Cardinals)
- 38%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Cardinals at 33c or below, or the Lions at 57c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Lions vs Cardinals trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cardinals | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Lions vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Lions vs Cardinals in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Lions by 4 points, a 62% win probability over the Cardinals, for a projected score of Lions 25, Cardinals 21 on a ratings-implied 46.8-point total. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.7) and the Lions 7th (+2.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Lions vs Cardinals?
Lions offense (+1.3, 10th of 32) against Cardinals defense (-2.9, 30th) — 4.2 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Lions (+0.6, 11th).
How do you take a position on Lions vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 33c or below, or the Lions at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Lions?
Detroit Lions visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Lions this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Lions', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Lions vs Cardinals?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Cardinals at 33c or below or the Lions at 57c or below, off a 4-point line.
Can you trade Lions vs Cardinals on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Lions?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Lions at 62% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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