Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 3.5 in Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 5 2026 — 60% to win, and Cardinals 30th of 32, Lions 8th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 35c or below (or Lions at 55c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DET
+2.4
ARI
-3.6
Lions
60%
model win prob
Cardinals
40%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 35c or below, or the Lions at 55c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Lions at Cardinals
The Lions travel to face the Cardinals in Week 5. Our power ratings put the Cardinals 30th of 32 at -3.6 (Below Avg tier) and the Lions 8th at +2.4 (Playoff tier) — a 6.0-point gap that home field narrows to a 3.5-point line on the Lions, 60% to win. It rates as the 6th-widest of the 15 games in Week 5.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.2 (10th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (29th) — 4.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Lions defense (+0.6, 7th), a 1.3-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.6 (11th of 32) to -0.1 (30th).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13) — 3.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Lions'.
The series is dead level: 8-8 across 17 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Lions won 20-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 0-4. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 60% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Cardinals 40%, Lions 60%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Cardinals contracts a buy at 35c or below and Lions contracts a buy at 55c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Lions vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Lions vs Cardinals in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Lions by 3.5 points, a 60% win probability over the Cardinals. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.6) and the Lions 8th (+2.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Lions vs Cardinals?
Lions offense (+1.2, 10th of 32) against Cardinals defense (-2.9, 29th) — 4.1 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Lions (+0.6, 11th).
How do you take a position on Lions vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 35c or below, or the Lions at 55c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Lions?
Detroit Lions visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Lions this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Lions', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 60% on a team like the Lions?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Lions at 60% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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