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Home/NFL/Week 5/Lions vs Cardinals
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026

Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21

Final. Cardinals' next game: Cardinals vs Cowboys, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 5.5 (69% to win); the Lions won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Lions at 70c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 5.5 (69% to win). The Lions won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Lions: -1c — we archived the Lions at 71c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 70c on Oct 11. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Cardinals to winModel 31% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 30% on ARI — kept as the pre-game record.30c31%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Lions 45, Cardinals 21: Detroit scored on seven straight possessions, and three of the touchdowns came on fourth down

Detroit went three-and-out on its first three possessions, trailed 7-0 after a quarter in Glendale, and then scored on seven in a row — six touchdowns and a field goal — to win 45-21. Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns, Jared Goff threw three touchdown passes and ran for a fourth score, and the Lions went 4 for 4 on fourth down, three of those conversions for touchdowns. Arizona went three-and-out on five straight possessions while the game got away, and fell to 1-4 on a day it finalized a trade sending Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston, per AP. DraftKings opened Detroit minus 8.5 and closed minus 4.5; the 66 points cleared both the opening total of 49.5 and the closing 55.5.

Lions 45—Cardinals 21

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit, and the model’s own read is the one that missed. The stored probability had Arizona at 31.3% and Detroit at 68.7% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 5.5-point line — and Detroit won, so it grades a hit. The model’s independent read was Detroit by 1.4, a 4.1-point MODERATE lean toward Arizona, and Detroit won by 24: the lean was wrong, and by a wide margin. The DraftKings line had also walked toward the model, from Detroit minus 8.5 at the open to minus 4.5 at the close, and the result went the other way from both. The ledger holds no position: a Cardinals game-winner row was voided on 2026-10-07, before kickoff, and counts in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff player board carried one PLAY row, Kendrick Bourne OVER 3.5 catches at HIGH, entered with the YES at 23¢ and closing at 44.5¢, a CLV of plus 21.5¢; Bourne caught five for 70 yards, so it grades a win by the box score. Thirteen WATCH rows, all visible, went 7-6, graded apart and never folded into the record. The wins: Elijah Higgins over 1.5 catches and over 9.5 receiving yards (three for 57), Bourne over 2.5 catches, the Michael Wilson under ladder at 6.5, 7.5 and 8.5 catches (he had four) and Sam LaPorta under 5.5 catches. The losses are mostly one player: LaPorta under 4.5 catches (he caught five) and under 39.5, 49.5 and 69.5 receiving yards (he had 88, including a 38-yard touchdown), plus Jacoby Brissett under 1.5 touchdown passes (he threw three) and Jeremiyah Love over 14.5 receiving yards (no catches on one target).

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Lions −8.5 → Lions −4.5
Total
49.5 → 55.5
To win
DET −395 / ARI +310 → DET −245 / ARI +200

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 6 to 55.5; the game landed on 66.

How it happened

Q1

Goff was sacked on each of Detroit’s first three drives, and Arizona scored on a receiver’s fourth-down throw

Detroit’s first three possessions went nine plays for minus nine yards, each with a Goff sack and each ending in a punt. In between, Arizona went 73 yards in 14 plays and 7:54, converting fourth-and-1 at the Detroit 9 when receiver Michael Wilson threw seven yards to Brissett. Brissett found Teagan Quitoriano from two yards on the next snap.

After one
Cardinals 7, Lions 0
Detroit, first three drives
9 plays · −9 yds · 3 punts
Arizona’s touchdown drive
14 plays · 73 yds · 7:54

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Three touchdowns and a field goal in the second quarter, two of the scores on fourth down

Gibbs scored from the 1, LaPorta took a fourth-and-1 throw 38 yards for a touchdown, and Jameson Williams caught an 8-yarder on fourth-and-4; Jake Bates added a 46-yard field goal with 53 seconds left. Arizona’s five possessions after its touchdown were all three-and-outs, and the sixth ended in Keith Abney II’s interception as the half ran out.

Halftime
Lions 24, Cardinals 7
Arizona, five straight drives
15 plays · 12 yds · 5 punts

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Williams from 39 on third-and-10, and Goff himself on fourth-and-goal

Chad Ryland missed a 53-yard try wide right on Arizona’s first drive of the half. Goff hit Williams for 39 yards on third-and-10 to make it 31-7, Brissett answered with a 13-yard touchdown to Quitoriano, and Goff ran it in from the 1 on fourth-and-goal with 1:05 left in the quarter.

After three
Lions 38, Cardinals 14
Williams
2 catches · 47 yds · 2 TD

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

A fourth-down stop, then 13 plays and 7:52 ending with Gibbs from the 3

Arizona reached the Detroit 19 and turned it over on downs when Brissett was sacked on fourth-and-1. Detroit then held the ball for 13 plays and 79 yards, and Gibbs finished it from three yards for 45-14 with 5:03 left. Trey McBride’s 9-yard catch on fourth-and-goal closed the scoring.

Final
Lions 45, Cardinals 21
Gibbs
25 carries · 151 yds · 2 TD; 5 catches · 56 yds
Goff
19 of 30 · 3 TD · 0 INT · 3 sacks; 1 rushing TD
Brissett
29 of 47 · 292 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT · 5 sacks
Fourth down
DET 4 of 4 · ARI 2 of 3
Rushing
DET 163 yds · ARI 56 yds

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the Cardinals game winner was voided 2026-10-07 and counts for nothing), and the nfl_prop_edges rows on the final pre-kickoff board carried no result when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play; the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. entry_price on an UNDER row is the YES price, so that side cost 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • Goff’s passing yardage is left out: the ESPN box score has 271 yards and the AP recap has 279.
  • The Harrison trade, its timing during the first quarter and his status as an inactive are the AP’s account alone. This page does not connect the trade to the swing in the game.
  • Jeremiyah Love’s receiving row is graded at zero yards: he appears in ESPN’s receiving table with no catches on one target.
  • Tom Kennedy was hurt on a second-quarter punt return and Walter Nolen III on Williams’ 39-yard touchdown, per the ESPN play-by-play; the severity of neither was known when this was published. Per AP, Devin White (forearm) and Kennedy (knee) left and did not return, with Dan Campbell saying White would likely need surgery, and Arizona safety Wydett Williams Jr. (concussion) was hurt late in the first half.
  • The DraftKings line moved four points toward Arizona, from Detroit −8.5 to −4.5, and the total rose six points. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved either number.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs lead the Lions’ offensive romp in a 45-21 win over the Cardinals

The league’s most generous defense against the league’s least explosive offense

Detroit games average 61.5 combined points, the highest in football, and 40.5% of the drives run against the Lions end in a touchdown — also the highest. Arizona should be the team that cannot take advantage: 13.3% of their plays gain ten yards, the lowest rate in the league, and they have five offensive plays of twenty-plus yards all season, the fewest. The game is whether Detroit’s pass rush gets to Jacoby Brissett before Arizona’s telegraphed coverage hands Jared Goff another second half.

Lions pass rush · Cardinals protection

Detroit’s pass rush against the quarterback who collapses hardest under pressure

Edge: Lions

Detroit pressures the quarterback on 41.1% of dropbacks, seventh in the league, with fifteen sacks, second. Brissett under pressure is close to unplayable: a 38.2 passer rating, 25th, on 15-of-36 completions for 3.7 yards an attempt. He is also averaging a league-low 5.4 yards an attempt overall and has not cleared that figure in a game since Week 1, with 27.5% of his throws travelling ten or more yards (26th) and 15.9% travelling fifteen or more (28th). And the protection just got worse in a permanent way: left tackle Paris Johnson is out for the rest of the season with a biceps injury. This is the cleanest one-way matchup on the Week 5 board — a top-ten rush, a bottom-of-the-league pressure performer, and a line that has lost its best player for good.

Lions pass rush
41.1% pressure rate (7th) · 15 sacks (2nd)
Brissett under pressure
38.2 rating (25th) · 41.7% completions (15/36) · 3.7 Y/A
Cardinals line
LT Paris Johnson out for the season (biceps)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Lions–Cardinals Week 5 worksheet

Lions pass offense · Cardinals coverage

Arizona plays the coverage Goff feeds on, and tells him it is coming

Edge: Lions

Arizona runs two-high shells on 73.2% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, and disguises its coverage before the snap at only the 29th-highest rate, 21.2%. Goff against two-high is completing 71.8% at 8.7 yards an attempt. Given a clean pocket he is 75.9% with seven touchdowns and no interceptions at 7.7 yards an attempt, and Arizona ranks 22nd in pressure rate, so the pocket is likely to be clean. The underlying numbers are worse still for the Cardinals: they allow the most passing points per attempt in the league at 0.71, a league-high 9.1 yards an attempt, and a league-high 10.1% passing touchdown rate. The one caveat that keeps this from being a coronation is when Goff does it — he is the 15th-highest-scoring quarterback in first halves and the third in second halves, and threw 31 of his 52 attempts after halftime on Sunday night.

Cardinals coverage
Two-high on 73.2% of dropbacks (2nd) but pre-snap disguise only 21.2% (29th)
Cardinals pass defense
League-worst 0.71 passing points per attempt · league-high 9.1 Y/A · league-high 10.1% passing TD rate
Goff splits
71.8% / 8.7 Y/A vs two-high · 75.9% / 7.7 Y/A / 7 TD / 0 INT without pressure · QB15 first half, QB3 second half

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Lions–Cardinals Week 5 worksheet

Cardinals offense · Lions defense

The most explosive-play-permissive defense in football meets the least explosive offense in football

Close to even

This is the collision that decides whether Arizona can stay in it, and it is a genuine standoff rather than a mismatch. Detroit has allowed twenty-five plays of twenty or more yards, the most in the league, and 40.5% of drives against them end in a touchdown, also the most; they are 31st in points allowed at 31.8 a game and face 72.0 opponent plays a game, dead last. Arizona is the one offense in the league least equipped to punish that: 4.5 offensive yards a play (31st), 13.3% of plays gaining ten-plus (lowest in the league), and five plays of twenty-plus yards all season (fewest). Something has to give. The thing that makes it live is that Arizona’s defense keeps opponent play counts down — 57.3 a game, fourth-fewest — so if they can turn this into a slow game, Detroit’s 72-play average stops applying, and Brissett was the fourth-highest-scoring quarterback in the league two weeks ago against San Francisco, so the ceiling exists.

Lions defense
League-high 25 plays of 20+ yards allowed · league-high 40.5% of drives against them end in a TD · 72.0 opponent plays per game (32nd)
Cardinals offense
4.5 yards per play (31st) · league-low 13.3% of plays gain 10+ · league-fewest 5 plays of 20+ yards
Pace lever
Cardinals allow 57.3 opponent plays per game — 4th-fewest

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Lions–Cardinals Week 5 worksheet

What this read does not know

  • We have no Cardinals practice report at all, and that is a real hole in this read. The all-32 Week 5 practice sweep we rely on lists the Lions–Cardinals game and carries no Arizona table. Everything above about Arizona’s availability comes from secondary reporting — Paris Johnson’s season-ending biceps injury, and a note that Jeremiyah Love tweaked an ankle in Week 4. We do not know who practised in Arizona on Wednesday. Treat the Cardinals side of this page as less well sourced than the Detroit side, because it is.
  • Our lean sits on Arizona and the reason is a rating that nets a good offense against a bad defense. Detroit scores 29.8 points a game, fifth, and allows 31.8, 31st, which leaves our power rating with Detroit barely above average. The market prices the offense more heavily than the defense. Neither of us is obviously right at four games, but our lean is on the home underdog, which is where six of this week’s eight sizeable leans sit and where a measured walk-forward puts the hit rate at a coin flip. No position.
  • Nobody has a game-status designation yet, on either team. Today is Thursday; designations land Friday. For Detroit, Brian Branch (Achilles) and Cade Mays (wrist) were limited and Rock Ya-Sin (hamstring), Tyleik Williams (foot) and Ben Bartch (foot) did not participate — two of those are secondary pieces on a defense already allowing the most explosive plays in the league.
  • The Brissett ceiling is real and we cannot date it. He was the fourth-highest-scoring quarterback in the league two weeks ago against San Francisco while averaging a league-low 5.4 yards an attempt on the season. One of those is the player and we do not know which. A read that only cites the league-low figure is cherry-picking in the direction of the conclusion.
  • Detroit’s 72-plays-against average is partly a consequence of its own offense. They run 66.8 plays a game themselves, sixth, and play the highest-scoring games in the league. A defense facing that volume will concede explosive plays whether or not it defends well, so the 25-plays-of-20-plus figure is not a pure measure of the unit. We cite it because the volume is itself the matchup, not because it isolates quality.
  • Isiah Pacheco is on injured reserve and we have not graded the Detroit backfield without him. The run-game side of this matchup is the part the source puts behind a paywall, so neither team’s rushing matchup is graded here at all. That is a stated gap, not an omission we are hiding.

Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: Sharp Football Analysis — Lions–Cardinals Week 5 worksheet · Sharp Football Analysis — Week 5 practice reports, all 32 teams (2026-10-07) · Sports Illustrated — Week 5 start ’em, sit ’em quarterbacks (2026-10-07) · Rotowire — Week 5 quarterback ranks and tiers (Goff QB3, Brissett QB9) · Yahoo Sports — 2026 NFL Week 5 injury report (2026-10-06) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Detroit Lions · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Arizona Cardinals

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY DET +0.6
vs DET -5.5
HOME ARI -4.4
Fair (books) · ARI 31% home win prob
Kalshi · ARI — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Glendale, AZ PASS — no position

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Lions

69%

fair value (books)

Cardinals

31%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

60%

Madden 27

40%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Lions at Cardinals How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Lions at CardinalsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Lions at Cardinals Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Lions–Cardinals spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Lions vs Cardinals power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Detroit Lions+0.613thAverage
    Arizona Cardinals-4.431stBelow Avg

    Lions and Cardinals season outlook

    DETARI
    Average wins9.66.0
    Make playoffs55%4%
    Win division17%1%
    Win Super Bowl2.9%0.1%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Lions vs Cardinals — player pages

    All players →

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    RB

    Trey McBride

    TE

    Michael Wilson

    WR

    Amon-Ra St. Brown

    WR

    Jeremiyah Love

    RB

    Jameson Williams

    WR

    Sam LaPorta

    TE

    Jared Goff

    QB

    Tyler Allgeier

    RB

    Jacoby Brissett

    QB

    Isaac TeSlaa

    WR

    Sione Vaki

    RB

    Kendrick Bourne

    WR

    Simi Fehoko

    Brock Wright

    Reggie Virgil

    ARI Cardinals D/ST

    Bam Knight

    Elijah Higgins

    DET Lions D/ST

    Jacob Saylors

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: What the model sees in Lions at Cardinals

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 — the graded call is above.

    The Lions travel to face the Cardinals in Week 5. Our power ratings put the Cardinals 31st of 32 at -4.4 (Below Avg tier) and the Lions 13th at +0.6 (Average tier) — a 5.0-point gap that home field narrows to a 1.5-point line on the Lions, 54% to win. It rates as the 8th-widest of the 15 games in Week 5.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +2.1 (9th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -3.8 (30th) — 5.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.6, 22nd) meets the Lions defense (-2.0, 24th), a 1.4-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.5 (9th of 32) to -0.0 (29th).

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.0 wins (favored in 2 of 17) and the Lions at 9.6 (favored in 9) — 3.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Lions'.

    The series is dead level: 8-8 across 17 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Lions won 20-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 0-4. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Lions at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Lions vs Cardinals on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI
    Market-implied (Cardinals)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Cardinals)
    31%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 31% for the Cardinals. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Lions vs Cardinals trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

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    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
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    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Lions vs Cardinals

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    Lions vs Cardinals — frequently asked

    Who won Lions vs Cardinals in Week 5?

    Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 5.5 (69% to win), and the Lions won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Lions vs Cardinals before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Lions by 5.5 points, a 69% win probability over the Cardinals. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Lions vs Cardinals?

    Lions offense (+2.1, 9th of 32) against Cardinals defense (-3.8, 30th) — 5.9 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Lions (+0.5, 9th).

    How do you take a position on Lions vs Cardinals?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 29c or below, or the Lions at 67c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Cardinals host the Lions?

    Detroit Lions visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.

    What does the model project for the Cardinals and Lions this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.0 wins (favored in 2) and the Lions at 9.6 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Lions', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Lions vs Cardinals?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Lions vs Cardinals on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11DETARI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Lions?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Lions at 54% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Cardinals to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 31% against a market price implying 30%, an edge of +1.3 points. Model 31% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 30% on ARI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Lions: Week 7 vs PackersModel line →Cardinals: Week 6 at RamsModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

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