Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Steelers by 0 in Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Week 13 2026 — 51% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.3 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06HOUPIT yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Steelers at 46c or below (or Texans at 44c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+1.8
PIT
-0.5
Texans
49%
model win prob
Steelers
51%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06HOUPIThasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Steelers at 46c or below, or the Texans at 44c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Texans–Steelers is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Texans rate +1.8 (9th of 32) against -0.5 for the Steelers (19th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 2.3-point gap between them, so the model lands at 51% for the Steelers anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 2nd-closest of the 14 games in Week 13, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Steelers at 8.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Texans at 9.2 (favored in 11) — 1.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Steelers' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Texans'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.4 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Steelers offense at -0.5 (21st) — 2.9 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 26th) meets the Steelers defense (-0.5, 13th), a 0.8-point gap.
Recent history, for context only: 8 regular-season meetings since 2002, 5-3 in the Steelers' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2023: Texans won 30-6 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
On conditions: Pittsburgh home games in December have run a median 38°F and 4 mph of wind across 12 games since 2015, with 67% at or below 40°F and a low of 11°F. Our model has no weather term, so treat that as an input it has not priced.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Steelers at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06HOUPIT is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 51% / 49% — the tradable window is narrow: Steelers at 46c or below, Texans at 44c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Steelers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Steelers in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Steelers by 0 points, a 51% win probability over the Texans. The Steelers rate 19th of 32 (-0.5) and the Texans 9th (+1.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06HOUPIT yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Steelers (-0.5, 19th) and Texans (+1.8, 9th) are only 2.3 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 51%/49%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Steelers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06HOUPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 46c or below, or the Texans at 44c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Steelers host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.
What does the model project for the Steelers and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 8.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Texans at 9.2 (favored in 11). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Steelers?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Steelers at 51% over the Texans sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 13 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 13 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.