Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Thursday, November 19, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 4.5 in Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans, NFL Week 11 2026 — 63% to win, and the second AFC South meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Texans at 58c or below (or Colts at 32c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
-0.1
HOU
+1.8
Colts
37%
model win prob
Texans
63%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOUhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Texans at 58c or below, or the Colts at 32c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Colts and Texans already played in Week 3, and now the Colts make the return trip in Week 11. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.8 against -0.1, plus home field, equals the Texans by 4.5 (63%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.4 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Colts offense at +0.9 (14th) — 1.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 26th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 0.4-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 3, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC South race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.2 projected wins for the Texans against 8.6 for the Colts, favored in 11 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Colts'.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Texans here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Texans 63%, Colts 37%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Texans contracts a buy at 58c or below and Colts contracts a buy at 32c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Texans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Texans in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the Texans by 4.5 points, a 63% win probability over the Colts. The Texans rate 9th of 32 (+1.8) and the Colts 15th (-0.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 3. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Texans by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Texans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 58c or below, or the Colts at 32c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Texans host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Houston Texans on Thursday, November 19, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 11, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
What does the model project for the Texans and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 9.2 wins (favored in 11) and the Colts at 8.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Texans?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Texans at 63% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 3. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Colts–Texans, Week 3 →
More Week 11 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.