Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Thursday, November 19, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Colts

41%

model win prob

Texans

59%

model win prob

Model line

Texans −3

Kalshi (Texans)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Texans — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Indianapolis Colts+0.713thAverage

Houston Texans+1.37thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 11, the Indianapolis Colts travel to face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Texans 7th of 32 (Playoff tier, +1.3) and the Colts 13th (Average tier, +0.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Texans by 3 — a 59% win probability for the Texans.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 59% (Texans) / 41% (Colts) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC South divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC South race. Track the full division on the AFC South hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Colts vs Texans — frequently asked

Who is favored in Colts vs Texans in Week 11?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Texans by 3 points and gives them a 59% win probability over the Colts. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Colts vs Texans?

Home win probability 59% (Texans), away 41% (Colts). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Texans rate 7th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Colts 13th (Average tier).

Can you trade Colts vs Texans on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.