Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Updated · model ratings
Thursday, November 19, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 4.5 in Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans, NFL Week 11 2026 — 64% to win, and the second AFC South meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Texans at 59c or below (or Colts at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
+0.0
HOU
+2.0
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Colts
36%
model win prob
Texans
64%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Texans at 59c or below, or the Colts at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Colts at Texans
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Texans −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Texans −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Colts and Texans already played in Week 3, and now the Colts make the return trip in Week 11. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +2.0 against +0.0, plus home field, equals the Texans by 4.5 (64%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.6 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Colts offense at +1.1 (11th) — 1.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 0.4-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 3, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC South race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.3 projected wins for the Texans against 8.7 for the Colts, favored in 12 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Colts'.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Texans here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Texans 64%, Colts 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Texans contracts a buy at 59c or below and Colts contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Texans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU
- Market-implied (Texans)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Texans)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Texans at 59c or below, or the Colts at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Colts vs Texans trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Texans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Colts vs Texans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Texans in Week 11?
Our power-rating model picks the Texans by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Colts, for a projected score of Texans 24, Colts 19 on a ratings-implied 43.0-point total. The Texans rate 9th of 32 (+2.0) and the Colts 15th (+0.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 3. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Texans by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Texans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 59c or below, or the Colts at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Texans host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Houston Texans on Thursday, November 19, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 11, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
What does the model project for the Texans and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 9.3 wins (favored in 12) and the Colts at 8.7 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Texans?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Texans at 59c or below or the Colts at 31c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Colts vs Texans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 11 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV19INDHOU. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Texans?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Texans at 64% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 3. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Colts–Texans, Week 3 →
More Week 11 matchups
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