Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 48% for the Saints in Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints, NFL Week 3 2026, while our model has the Saints by 6.5 (67% to win) — a 19.2pp gap. A gap past our 12pp ceiling against a liquid price is more likely our error than the market's — no call.
Kickoff board
Week 3 · 2026-09-151 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 19.2pp on Saints moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
LV
-6.0
NO
-2.3
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 3 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Raiders
33%
model win prob
Saints
67%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
49%
Madden 27
51%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Raiders at Saints
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Saints −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Raiders at Saints
The Raiders travel to face the Saints in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Saints 25th of 32 at -2.3 (Below Avg tier) and the Raiders 32nd at -6.0 (Rebuild tier) — a 3.7-point gap that home field widens to a 6.5-point line on the Saints, 67% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Saints grade -0.5 on that side of the ball (13th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 3.8 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.5, 27th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 0.5-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Raiders +0.2 (23rd of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Saints at 7.8 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Saints' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Saints' entire schedule.
Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Saints' favour. They last met in 2024: Raiders won 25-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Saints are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Saints here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO contract implies 48% for the Saints against our 67% — a 19.2-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Saints as the value side.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Saints on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO
- Market-implied (Saints)
- 48c · 48%
- Our model (Saints)
- 67%
- Model vs market
- +19.2pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 48c on the Saints is an implied 48% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 67%, a 19.2pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Raiders vs Saints trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Saints | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 48% 48c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 48% 48c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 48% 48c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Saints — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Saints in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Saints by 6.5 points, a 67% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Saints 24, Raiders 17 on a ratings-implied 40.7-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO market implies 48% for the Saints — a 19.2pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Raiders vs Saints?
Raiders offense (-4.2, 32nd of 32) against Saints defense (-0.5, 13th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Raiders (+0.2, 23rd).
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Saints?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Saints YES is quoted around 48c against our 67% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Saints host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
What does the model project for the Saints and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 7.8 wins (favored in 7) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Saints?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO. The Saints YES contract sits around 48c, which is an implied 48% — against our model's 67%. That is a 19.2pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Raiders vs Saints on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Saints?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Saints at 67% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Saints moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 67% against a market price implying 48%, an edge of +19.2 points. Model 67% vs market 48% on NO. We rate it attack, sized at 9.2% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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