Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread

Saints −3 → Saints −3.5

Total

42.5 → 44.5

To win

LV +140 / NO −166 → LV +164 / NO −198

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 2 to 44.5; the game landed on 62.

How it happened

What this recap does not know

• —No game-level row exists in nfl_weekly_edges for 2026_03_LV_NO, so the ledger has nothing to grade on the game itself; the chip above is derived on this page from the stored probability and the final score. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
• —There is no weekly-edges ledger row for 2026_03_LV_NO, so there is no entry, no close and no CLV to report. The 62.2% the chip graded is the anchored (market) probability, not the model’s; the model’s own 5.2-point Saints read is stated above as the miss it was.
• —Where the Koonce strip-sack was recovered conflicts: the AP says the New Orleans 45; ESPN’s drive chart starts the Raiders’ next possession at the Las Vegas 45 and credits it 55 yards to the end zone. The spot is left out above.
• —The fumbled kickoff return is ESPN’s zero-play Raiders possession plus the fumbles table (Laube charged, Howden recovering); the AP does not describe it, and “kickoff” is inferred from a zero-play possession following a touchdown. The AP counts Shough’s turnovers as two (fumble, interception); ESPN’s box score charges him with two lost fumbles and the interception, and the team total of four turnovers is ESPN’s.
• —Bech (forearm), Pete Werner (neck/shoulder — the AP prints his surname differently), Etienne (apparent hamstring) and Anfernee Jennings (knee) left; no severity is known.
• —ESPN’s summary carried no weather block (the Superdome is indoors). Attendance (70,006) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
• —This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grade is a resolution against the box score, not a settlement read off the exchange.

What this read does not know

• —Banks’s absence is reported rather than designated. It should be confirmed against the Saints’ own next injury report; the carting-off and the replacement are well sourced, the formal status is not.
• —Bowers is the game’s swing piece. Questionable after a Thursday DNP; the inactives list 90 minutes before kickoff is the ruling. Las Vegas also ruled out safety Treydan Stukes; backup QB Aidan O’Connell did not practise Thursday.
• —Maxx Crosby’s 2026 production could not be sourced from a dated, citable article, so no number for him appears above. He is named because the matchup runs through him, not because we have quantified it.
• —The Raiders’ 2-0 start has not been tested. Beating Miami and the Chargers is a real result and a weak sample; treat the record as less informative than it looks.
• —We publish no position on this game — the model rows for it sit in held stat families on a run with a systemic one-way lean. See the week’s handoff.