Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Saints by 6 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New Orleans Saints, NFL Week 3 2026 — 67% to win, and Saints 26th of 32, Raiders 32nd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Saints at 62c or below (or Raiders at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-5.8
NO
-2.4
Raiders
33%
model win prob
Saints
67%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNOhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Saints at 62c or below, or the Raiders at 28c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Raiders at Saints
The Raiders travel to face the Saints in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Saints 26th of 32 at -2.4 (Average tier) and the Raiders 32nd at -5.8 (Below Avg tier) — a 3.4-point gap that home field widens to a 6-point line on the Saints, 67% to win. It rates as the 4th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Saints grade -0.5 on that side of the ball (14th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 3.6 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.6, 27th) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 0.3-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Raiders +0.2 (23rd of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Saints at 7.7 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Saints' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Saints' entire schedule.
Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Saints' favour. They last met in 2024: Raiders won 25-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Saints are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Saints here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Saints 67%, Raiders 33%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Saints contracts a buy at 62c or below and Raiders contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Saints — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Saints in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Saints by 6 points, a 67% win probability over the Raiders. The Saints rate 26th of 32 (-2.4) and the Raiders 32nd (-5.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Raiders vs Saints?
Raiders offense (-4.1, 32nd of 32) against Saints defense (-0.5, 14th) — 3.6 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Raiders (+0.2, 23rd).
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Saints?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LVNO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Saints at 62c or below, or the Raiders at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Saints host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
What does the model project for the Saints and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 7.7 wins (favored in 7) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Saints?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Saints at 67% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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