Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 1.5 (55% to win); the Bears won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bears at 52c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 1.5 (55% to win). The Bears won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Bears: -3c — we archived the Bears at 55c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 52c on Oct 18. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Williams, back from a hamstring injury that cost him three games, went 30 of 36 for 305 yards, D’Andre Swift ran for two touchdowns and Chicago led 31-7 early in the fourth quarter. Michael Penix Jr. threw two touchdown passes to Kyle Pitts and two two-point passes to make it 31-23, but Gordon, activated from the PUP list before the game, sacked Penix and forced a fumble with under three minutes left, and the Bears ran out the clock. DraftKings opened Chicago −3 and closed it −1.5; the Bears won by eight, and 54 points finished over both the opening 47.5 and the closing 50.5.
Bears 31—Falcons 23
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Chicago at 55.3% (Atlanta 44.7%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 1.5-point line. Chicago won. The quarterback gate read FORK: the page priced Chicago both with Williams and with Case Keenum until the starter was known, and both branches carried the same anchored probability. Williams started. The model’s own read was Atlanta by 0.4, a 1.9-point lean toward the Falcons, tier NONE, and the Bears won by eight: the lean was wrong. The ledger held no row on this game. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY or WATCH rows on either team, so there are no props to grade here.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 3 to 50.5; the game landed on 54.
Q1
Chicago took the opening kickoff 67 yards in 10 plays, Williams completing all six of his throws and finishing with a 14-yard touchdown to Colston Loveland. Atlanta went three-and-out, and the Bears went 59 yards in nine plays for Swift’s 4-yard run.
Q2
Cairo Santos missed a 56-yarder wide left, and Penix hit Jahan Dotson with a 13-yard back-shoulder throw to make it 14-7. Late in the half Zachariah Branch fumbled a fair-catch attempt, Chicago took over at the Atlanta 10, and Swift scored from two yards three plays later.
Q3
Atlanta’s first drive of the second half ended on downs, and Chicago went 52 yards in seven plays for Johnson’s 4-yard touchdown. Branch fumbled the ensuing kickoff, N. McCloud recovered at the Atlanta 31, and Santos’ 50-yarder early in the fourth quarter made it 31-7.
Q4
Penix found Pitts from 10 yards and Branch for two to cap a 91-yard drive, Johnson fumbled at the Atlanta 45, and Penix hit Pitts again from five yards and Drake London for two: 31-23 with 5:41 left. On Atlanta’s next possession Gordon sacked Penix at the 14 and forced a fumble that Devin Bush recovered at the 28, and the Bears ran out the clock inside the Atlanta 5.
Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Caleb Williams completes first 12 passes in return after missing 3 games as Bears top Falcons 31-23
Our quarterback gate has this game on hold, so there is no model line, no lean and no number on this page. Michael Penix Jr. practised in full on Wednesday and says he is good to go, but his head coach would only commit to "all, some, none" of the snaps; Caleb Williams was listed full on a report the Bears themselves call an estimate. Until Friday’s designations land and the gate is re-run, what this page offers is the football that does not depend on either man: the two heaviest run offenses in the league, a Chicago pass rush that just lost Montez Sweat for two games, and a Chicago coverage unit that has been shredded by exactly the heavy personnel Atlanta uses most.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
Penix took a big hit late in the fourth quarter against Baltimore, left, came back for a single play, and then watched Tagovailoa throw the interception that ended the game in overtime. He had imaging early in the week; Stefanski would not describe the results beyond "feeling better", and Penix called them positive and said the ribs "get better every day". On Wednesday he made every throw, took all the first-team reps and was listed a full participant. The reason our gate is on hold rather than passing is one sentence from his coach about Sunday’s snap count: "it could be all, some, none." A quarterback who might play some of a game is not a priced quarterback, and the backup is a second injury — Tagovailoa is listed with an oblique that cost him the start of the season. On the other side, Williams has not played since Week 2. He practised in full on Wednesday according to the report, but Chicago held a walk-through, so that status is the club’s estimate, and Ben Johnson called the situation "still fluid". Behind him, Tyson Bagent threw two interceptions in Green Bay and was benched for Case Keenum. What resolves both: a real full practice on Thursday or Friday, Friday’s designations, and a gate re-run before anything on this game ships.
Source: ESPN — Falcons say Michael Penix is on track to start vs Bears if no setbacks (2026-10-14)
Falcons run offense · Bears run defense
Strip the quarterbacks out and this is a run-game duel between the two teams that run more than anyone in the league — Atlanta runs on more than half its snaps, the highest share in football, and Chicago is right behind it in third. Atlanta out-rushes its opponents by the widest margin in the league; Chicago is second by that same measure. The difference is the defenses. Atlanta allows five yards a play, ninth; Chicago allows 6.2, thirtieth, and only two defenses in football give up more per play. Robinson leads the NFL in rushing yards, and Chicago’s run defense has been giving up better than four yards a carry. Chicago’s own run game is the counter — it runs the most plays in football and holds opponents to the fewest — but Kyle Monangai did not practise with a thumb and toe and is on track to miss multiple games, which thins the rotation behind D’Andre Swift. Atlanta’s run defense has also faced the lowest opponent run rate in the league, which says teams have stopped trying.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Bears–Falcons Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Both pass rushes
Sweat was suspended on Tuesday for two games under the league’s performance-enhancing-substances policy; he misses this game and the Thursday-night game against New England and is eligible to return on 23 October. He has two of Chicago’s twelve sacks, and Dayo Odeyingbo did not practise Wednesday with a quad, so the Bears activated Shemar Turner to fill the spot. That matters for a defense that already allows more per play than all but two teams. Atlanta’s rush is the reverse: third in the league in pressure rate, though it generated a season-low pressure number against Baltimore while blitzing a season-high amount, and Tyler Huntley simply threw short of it — 4.7 air yards an attempt, the lowest Atlanta has faced. Whoever plays quarterback for Chicago, that is the template: get it out, because Williams’s own pressure numbers under Ben Johnson are poor and his time to throw was the longest in the league before he was hurt.
Falcons pass offense · Bears coverage
The most specific non-quarterback edge on the page. Against two or more tight ends, Chicago’s coverage has been the worst in football: opponents complete nearly four of every five throws at better than fifteen yards an attempt, and more than half of those throws go for a first down or touchdown. Outside heavy sets the same defense is fourth in completion rate allowed. Jordan Love walked through it last week for 367 yards at nearly twelve an attempt. Atlanta throws from two-tight-end sets on a quarter of its passes, seventh-most, and from three-tight-end sets on better than one in ten, fifth-most — and since his return Penix has been at his most efficient with multiple tight ends on the field. If Penix plays the whole game this is where Atlanta attacks; if Tagovailoa plays, the personnel does not change, only the arm. Chicago’s cornerback room is also thin — Tyrique Stevenson was limited with a hip, and linebacker T.J. Edwards did not practise with a hamstring, which is the body that matches up on tight ends.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Bears–Falcons Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: ESPN — Falcons say Michael Penix is on track to start vs Bears if no setbacks (2026-10-14) · NFL.com — Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) expected to start Week 6 vs Bears · Yahoo Sports — Falcons injury report: latest on Penix and Caleb Williams (Wednesday lists, both clubs) · Yahoo Sports — Bears vs Falcons injury report: Caleb Williams full participant (estimated walk-through report) · SI — Bears Wednesday injury report: bad news for Kyle Monangai, Caleb Williams progresses · AP via ABC News — Bears DE Montez Sweat suspended two games (2026-10-13) · Chicago Sun-Times — Sweat suspended; Shemar Turner activated · Sharp Football Analysis — Bears–Falcons Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Atlanta News First — Falcons drop thriller to Ravens in overtime; Penix removed late with rib injury · SI — Bears vs Falcons Week 6 preview (records, Bagent benched for Keenum) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
CHI
+3.2
ATL
-0.5
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Bears
55%
fair value (books)
Falcons
45%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 — the graded call is above.
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Bears rate +3.2 (2nd of 32) against -0.5 for the Falcons (18th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 3.7-point gap between them, so the model lands at 51% for the Falcons anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 14 games in Week 6, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Falcons at 7.9 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Bears at 10.7 (favored in 14) — 2.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Falcons' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Bears'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.5 (6th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.1 (9th) — 2.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (-0.3, 20th) meets the Bears defense (+0.2, 7th), a 0.6-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Bears +0.5 (13th of 32) to -0.1 (30th).
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Bears' favour. They last met in 2023: Bears won 37-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Falcons are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Falcons at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CHIATL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 45% for the Falcons. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Falcons | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 48% 48c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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32:082026 Win Total Predictions: Bears, Vikings, and More | Fade the Field Ep. 15Aug 4, 2026Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bears by 1.5 (55% to win), and the Bears won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Bears by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Falcons. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CHIATL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Falcons (-0.5, 18th) and Bears (+3.2, 2nd) are only 3.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 45%/55%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CHIATL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Falcons at 43c or below, or the Bears at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Chicago Bears visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Falcons at 7.9 wins (favored in 6) and the Bears at 10.7 (favored in 14). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Falcons' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Bears', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CHIATL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18CHIATL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Falcons at 51% over the Bears sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Seahawks at BroncosModel: even
Texans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5
Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5
Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5
Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5
Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5
Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5
Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2
Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5
Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3
Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
