Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Bears

48%

model win prob

Falcons

52%

model win prob

Model line

Falcons −0.5

Kalshi (Falcons)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Falcons — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Chicago Bears+0.711thAverage

Atlanta Falcons-1.122ndAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 6, the Chicago Bears travel to face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Falcons 22nd of 32 (Average tier, -1.1) and the Bears 11th (Average tier, +0.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Falcons by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the Falcons.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 52% (Falcons) / 48% (Bears) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Falcons — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bears vs Falcons in Week 6?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Falcons by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Bears. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bears vs Falcons?

Home win probability 52% (Falcons), away 48% (Bears). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Falcons rate 22nd of 32 (Average tier), the Bears 11th (Average tier).

Can you trade Bears vs Falcons on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.