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Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

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Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

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NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — 2026

Three ratings for all 32 teams, on the same points scale. One is ours. One is the rating the Kalshi win-total market implies, solved backwards out of live contract prices. One is the rating the book consensus implies from this week's spread — DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM and the no-vig exchanges, de-vigged and medianed — solved the same way. The table is sorted by where we and Kalshi disagree, because the disagreements are the product.

How both numbers are built

PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field. PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. It comes from opponent-adjusted play-by-play, not from a vote.

Market PWR is inverted from Kalshi win-total contract prices. We read the expected wins implied by a team's 17-rung ladder, then solve for the single rating that reproduces exactly that many wins across the team's real 2026 schedule, through the identical win-probability function our own model uses. We do not read anyone else's published power score.

Books PWR is inverted from the book consensus spread on this team's game this week (Week 6). We take the median de-vigged, home-positive margin across every book that quoted the game — never fewer than three — and solve for the single rating that reproduces it through the same margin function. It is a weekly number, so it carries this week's injuries and matchup; Kalshi's is a season number. That difference is exactly what the “Kalshi vs. books” list below is measuring. Kalshi and Polymarket are deliberately excluded from the consensus so it is a foil, not a mirror.

Opponents are held at our PWR. So market PWR is precisely “the rating the market implies for this team, holding our read of its opponents fixed” — which is what puts all three columns on one scale. A team with no listed win-total market, on a bye, or in a game fewer than three books quoted shows an em-dash, never an estimated rating.

#TeamPWRKalshiGap
1NYG-1.0-6.7+5.8
2LAR+2.6+7.6-5.0
3MIA-4.6-9.6+5.0
4CLE-0.9-5.1+4.3
5KC+0.4+4.3-3.9
6BUF+2.4+6.3-3.9
7ARI-4.4-8.2+3.8
8HOU+0.8+4.2-3.4
9BAL+1.8+5.1-3.4
10DAL-0.8+2.5-3.3
11NYJ-2.3-5.5+3.2
12DET+0.8+3.6-2.8
13TEN-4.9-7.5+2.6
14PHI-0.1-2.3+2.2
15GB+1.4-0.6+2.0
16WAS-1.8-3.8+2.0
17TB-0.6-2.5+1.9
18NO-3.0-1.1-1.9
19SF+2.8+4.6-1.8
20ATL+0.0-1.3+1.3
21MIN+0.0+1.3-1.2
22JAX+3.2+4.4-1.2
23CIN+1.5+2.7-1.2
24PIT-0.5-1.6+1.1
25CAR-0.6-1.4+0.8
26LAC-2.6-1.7-0.8
27NE+3.9+3.0+0.8
28SEA+3.9+4.5-0.6
29DEN+1.3+1.8-0.5
30CHI+2.2+2.6-0.4
31IND-0.7-0.8+0.1
32LV-3.2-3.2+0.0

32 of 32 teams carry a listed win-total market; 28 of 32 carry a Week 6 book consensus (lines read 2026-10-16 20:40 UTC). Ratings as of 2026-10-14; Kalshi prices read 2026-10-16 23:01 UTC and refreshed hourly. Full PWR board · Win totals vs the ladder · What this board does across 10,000 simulated seasons

Where Kalshi and the books disagree — Week 6

Kalshi's rating is a season price; the books' is this week's. A positive number means Kalshi's win-total ladder carries this team higher than this week's spread does — the market still likes the season more than the matchup. Both are real prices; neither is our opinion.

  1. CARKalshi -1.4 · Books +5.9 · PWR -0.6-7.3
  2. PITKalshi -1.6 · Books +4.4 · PWR -0.5-6.0
  3. NYJKalshi -5.5 · Books -1.1 · PWR -2.3-4.4
  4. PHIKalshi -2.3 · Books -6.5 · PWR -0.1+4.3
  5. NOKalshi -1.1 · Books +2.5 · PWR -3.0-3.6
  6. HOUKalshi +4.2 · Books +0.7 · PWR +0.8+3.5

Power ratings vs. the market — questions

What is the difference between the Kalshi column and the Books column?

They answer different questions on the same scale. The Kalshi column is a season price: the rating that reproduces the expected wins implied by a team’s win-total ladder across its real 2026 schedule. The Books column is a weekly price: the rating that reproduces this week’s median de-vigged spread from DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM and the no-vig exchanges, holding the opponent at our PWR. When they disagree by more than a couple of points, the season market and the weekly market are carrying different information — usually an injury or a matchup the spread has priced and the ladder has not, or a season view the ladder holds that one week cannot move. Kalshi and Polymarket are excluded from the book consensus so it is a genuine second price, not a mirror of the first.

What is an NFL power rating in points?

PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field. PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. A team at +6.0 is six points better than a league-average opponent before home field, so two teams four points apart project to a four-point spread on a neutral field. That is what separates a points-scale rating from a 1-32 media ranking: a ranking tells you the order, a points rating produces a number you can compare directly to a spread or a contract price.

How do market-implied power ratings differ from a media power ranking?

A media ranking is an ordering, usually re-shuffled each week by whoever writes it. A market-implied rating is solved backwards out of money: we take the live Kalshi win-total ladder for a team, read off the expected wins it implies, then find the single rating that reproduces exactly that many wins across the team’s real 2026 schedule, using the same win-probability function our own model uses. Opponents are held at our rating throughout, which is what puts both numbers on one scale.

Where does our model most disagree with the prediction market right now?

The table on this page is sorted by the size of the disagreement, largest first, so the top rows are the answer and they change as prices move. A positive gap means our rating is above the market-implied one — we think the market is underrating that team. A negative gap means the opposite. The gap is in the same points-per-game units as the ratings themselves.

How accurate is the model?

The DAEPA engine behind these ratings grades at 59.6% straight-up across 3,266 games (2013–2024), with a Brier score of 0.236 and log loss of 0.664. Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying opponent-adjusted play-by-play model — PWR is one aggregation of it and is not separately backtested. Average error on a season win total is 2.32 wins, which is the honest scale of the disagreements below.

More NFL Markets

Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.