Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 68% for the Patriots in Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Patriots by 7 (69% to win) — a 0.7pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The model's own line is Patriots by 7.1 against a market line of Patriots by 5.5 — a 1.6-point lean toward the Patriots, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
PIT
-0.5
NE
+5.5
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 2 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Steelers
31%
model win prob
Patriots
69%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: NE 68% (+0.4pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
38%
Madden 27
62%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Steelers at Patriots
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 more rungsPatriots +14.5 → Patriots +2.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots +1.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Patriots by 7
The model does not think this one is close. The Patriots rate 1st of 32 at +5.5, the Steelers 17th at -0.5, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Patriots by 7 — 69% to win. That is the 16th-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 2 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Steelers need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +4.0 (4th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.4 (12th) — 4.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.6, 21st) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 5th), a 1.9-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Patriots at 10.9 wins (favored in 15 of 17) and the Steelers at 8.3 (favored in 10) — 2.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Patriots' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Steelers'. Nothing on the Steelers' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Steelers are on 7 days and the Patriots are on 11 days. The Steelers come in off the Falcons, the Patriots off the Seahawks. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 11-5 in 16 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 21-14 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE contract implies 68% for the Patriots against our 69% — a 0.7-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Steelers vs Patriots on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE
- Market-implied (Patriots)
- 68c · 68%
- Our model (Patriots)
- 69%
- Model vs market
- +0.7pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 68c on the Patriots is an implied 68% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 69%, a 0.7pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Steelers vs Patriots trades
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Patriots | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 68% 68c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 69% 69c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarketinternational book | 69% 69c | Open Polymarket → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 68% 68c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 68% 68c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Steelers vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Steelers vs Patriots in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Patriots by 7 points, a 69% win probability over the Steelers, for a projected score of Patriots 27, Steelers 20 on a ratings-implied 46.6-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE market implies 68% for the Patriots — a 0.7pp agreement with the model.
What would it take for the Steelers to win?
The 7-point line comes from a 6.0-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Steelers still project at 31% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Steelers defense (-0.4, 12th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Steelers vs Patriots?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Patriots YES is quoted around 68c against our 69% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Patriots host the Steelers?
Pittsburgh Steelers visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
What does the model project for the Patriots and Steelers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 10.9 wins (favored in 15) and the Steelers at 8.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Steelers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Steelers vs Patriots?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE. The Patriots YES contract sits around 68c, which is an implied 68% — against our model's 69%. That is a 0.7pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Steelers vs Patriots on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20PITNE. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Patriots?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Patriots at 69% over the Steelers sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Patriots moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 69% against a market price implying 68%, an edge of +0.7 points. Model 69% vs market 68% on NE. We pass — no position.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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