College Football · 2026 Heisman Trophy
2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Every Heisman contender priced on both regulated prediction markets, side by side, in cents — with the cheaper venue named for each player and the 7-day move on Kalshi. The two exchanges disagree by a cent on most of the top ten, in both directions, and below about 5¢ they collapse to the same price. That tier is priced by formula, which is where an opinion is worth the most.
Polymarket prices on this page are Polymarket US — the CFTC-regulated exchange US visitors are routed to — so the price you see is the book you trade. Polymarket’s international book is a separate exchange and is thin on this award; it is shown only where it has a real two-sided market and never named as the cheapest venue otherwise.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket US, every contender
The board
| Player | Kalshi bid / ask | Polymarket US bid / ask | Polymarket intl | Cheapest YES | 7-day (Kalshi) | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah SmithOhio St. | 48¢ / 50¢ | 48¢ / 49¢ | 50¢ / 53¢ | Poly US · 49¢ | -6¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Darian MensahMiami (FL) | 16¢ / 17¢ | 18¢ / 24¢ | 17¢ / 19¢ | Kalshi · 17¢ | +9¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Trinidad ChamblissOle Miss | 11¢ / 12¢ | 12¢ / 13¢ | 9.6¢ / 12.7¢ | Kalshi · 12¢ | +6¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| CJ CarrNotre Dame | 4¢ / 5¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ | no book | Tie · 5¢ | -1¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Malachi ToneyPOTDMiami | 4¢ / 5¢ | 5¢ / 9¢ | 2.5¢ / 5.8¢ | Kalshi · 5¢ | +3¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Gunner StocktonGeorgia | 3¢ / 4¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | no book | Poly US · 2¢ | -2¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Jesse LegreeOregon St. | 3¢ / 4¢ | 3¢ / 5¢ | no book | Kalshi · 4¢ | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Bear BachmeierBYU | 2¢ / 3¢ | 1¢ / 3¢ | — | Tie · 3¢ | +2¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Jayden MaiavaUSC | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ | Poly intl · 0.2¢ | +1¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Josh HooverIndiana | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ | 0.2¢ / 2.4¢ | Tie · 2¢ | -1¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Aaron PhiloFlorida | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Ahmad HardyMissouri | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.8¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Anthony ColandreaNebraska | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | 0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Arch ManningTexas | — / 1¢ | — / 2¢ | 0.1¢ / 1.9¢ | one book | 0¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Austin MackAlabama | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.2¢ / 0.7¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Austin SimmonsMissouri | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | 0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Avery Johnson | — | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | Poly → |
| Bo JacksonOhio St. | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.8¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Brendan SorsbyTexas Tech | — / 1¢ | — | 0.1¢ / 0.8¢ | one book | — | Kalshi → |
| Bryce UnderwoodPOTDMichigan | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | no book | — | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Byrum BrownAuburn | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | no book | — | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Charlie BeckerIndiana | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | — | Kalshi → |
| CJ BaileyNC St. | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Colin SimmonsTexas | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | 0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Conner Weigman | — | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | Poly → |
| Dante MooreOregon | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.4¢ / 1.1¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Demond Williams Jr.Washington | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | no book | — | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Devon DampierUtah | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | — | — | 0¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| DJ Lagway | — | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | Poly → |
| Drew MestemakerOklahoma St. | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.2¢ / 4.1¢ | one book | -1¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Dylan RaiolaOregon | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | 0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Faizon BrandonTennessee | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Jadan BaughFlorida | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | no book | — | 0¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleCalifornia | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | no book | — | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| John MateerOklahoma | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.2¢ | one book | 0¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Julian SayinOhio St. | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.2¢ / 1¢ | one book | -1¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Kamario TaylorMississippi St | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | no book | — | -2¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Keelon RussellAlabama | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.3¢ / 1.9¢ | one book | -4¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Kevin JenningsSMU | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.2¢ / 0.9¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Kewan LacyOle Miss | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.1¢ / 3.3¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| LaNorris SellersPOTDSouth Carolina | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.2¢ / 4.3¢ | one book | 0¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Lincoln KienholzLouisville | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Marcel ReedTexas A&M | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.8¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Mason HeintschelPitt | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | — | Kalshi → |
| Nico IamaleavaUCLA | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Rocco BechtPenn St. | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.2¢ / 0.8¢ | one book | — | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Sam LeavittPOTDLSU | — / 1¢ | — / 2¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.6¢ | one book | 0¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| Wayne KnightUCLA | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | 0¢ | Kalshi → |
| Will HammondTexas Tech | — / 1¢ | — / 1¢ | 0.1¢ / 0.8¢ | one book | 0¢ | Kalshi →Poly → |
| William “Pop” Watson IIIUMass | — / 1¢ | — | — | — | — | Kalshi → |
As of Oct 18, 8:25 PM ET. Prices are cents per $1 contract; a price shows only where the venue has a real two-sided book (spread ≤ 5¢). Polymarket prices on this page are Polymarket US — the CFTC-regulated exchange US visitors are routed to — so the price you see is the book you trade. Polymarket’s international book is a separate exchange and is thin on this award; it is shown only where it has a real two-sided market and never named as the cheapest venue otherwise.
How to read this
Each cell is a venue’s bid and ask for YES on that player, in cents per $1 contract. “Cheapest YES” is the lowest ask among venues with a real two-sided book — bid and ask both present, no more than 5¢ apart. An equal ask is a tie. A row greyed out is listed on one venue only; coverage is content too, and a miss is never matched by guesswork. Polymarket (intl) appears only when that book is genuinely two-sided.
The momentum trade. A Heisman contract is not a hold-to-December ticket. A 3¢ contract on a quarterback who throws for 400 in a September SEC game can be a 15¢ contract by October, and you can sell it that day. Every longshot below is framed that way — with a target, not a ceremony.
Sizing. No units. A speculative position is a ¼-Kelly share of bankroll — run your own number through the Kelly calculator, check the break-even in the EV calculator, and turn any American-format line into cents with the probability converter.
Coach Gene’s four longshots
Coach Gene Clemons of The 7 Oracles is building positions in four contenders priced under 5¢, one per day as the Play of the Day, Sept. 3–6. Each is graded in public. The full read is in the article.
Sam Leavitt · LSU
K 1¢ · P 2¢
The Arizona State-to-LSU pipeline already produced one Heisman in Jayden Daniels. Leavitt walks into a deeper offense that keeps pressing in blowouts, and pressing means the volume voters count.
LaNorris Sellers · South Carolina
K 1¢ · P 1¢
A bully at the position — physically dominant as a runner, still emerging as a passer, and priced as the former. If the off-season arm work shows up, the stat line takes care of itself.
Bryce Underwood · Michigan
K 1¢ · P 1¢
Michigan was never as bad as the headlines and got better with Kyle Whittingham on the sideline. Underwood is big, fast and athletic with weapons to throw to; 2¢ is the market pricing the noise.
Play of the Day · Sep 5
Malachi Toney · Miami
K 5¢ · P 9¢
The one non-quarterback: possibly the most electric player in the sport, on a high-profile program, with Darian Mensah throwing him the ball. A 2¢ receiver inside a 9¢ offense is the cheapest way to be long Miami.
Play of the Day · Sep 6
2026 Heisman prices on Kalshi and Polymarket — FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?
The board above names the market favorite live — the top row is the highest Kalshi YES price with a real two-sided book. At launch on Sept. 3, 2026 it was Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr at 12 cents on Kalshi, with Arch Manning at 10 and Darian Mensah and Dante Moore at 9; Polymarket US had Mensah a shade ahead of Carr. The favorite tag has a poor record: Coach Gene Clemons counts one preseason favorite winning in the past two decades.
Is Kalshi or Polymarket cheaper for Heisman contracts?
It depends on the player and it changes daily, which is why the "Cheapest YES" column exists. On launch day Polymarket US was a cent cheaper on CJ Carr, Arch Manning and Dante Moore while Kalshi was cheaper on Darian Mensah and Jeremiah Smith; most longshots were priced identically. A tie is shown as a tie — we never break one by preferring a venue.
Which Polymarket price is this?
Polymarket prices on this page are Polymarket US — the CFTC-regulated exchange US visitors are routed to — so the price you see is the book you trade. Polymarket’s international book is a separate exchange and is thin on this award; it is shown only where it has a real two-sided market and never named as the cheapest venue otherwise.
What does the 7-day column mean?
The change in the Kalshi YES ask over the past seven days, in cents, read from our own price history rather than from the exchange. A rising number is a campaign the market is buying into; a falling one is a contender losing the room. It is blank until a player has a week of history on this page.
Do I have to hold a Heisman contract until December?
No. A prediction-market contract can be sold any time the market is open, so a 3-cent contract that becomes a 15-cent contract in October can be closed that day. That is the structural difference from a fixed-payout futures ticket, and it is why Coach Gene’s four longshot positions are framed as momentum trades with sell targets rather than holds to the ceremony.
How much of a bankroll belongs in a 2-cent Heisman contract?
Treat it as speculative. PredictionMarketsPicks sizes speculative positions as a quarter-Kelly share of bankroll; put your own probability estimate into the Kelly calculator and let it size the position. Most 2-cent contracts expire worthless, and the exit price should be decided before entry.