Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 5 in Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots, NFL Week 9 2026 — 64% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Packers, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08GBNE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Patriots at 59c or below (or Packers at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
GB
+2.9
NE
+5.4
Packers
36%
model win prob
Patriots
64%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV08GBNEhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Patriots at 59c or below, or the Packers at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Packers at Patriots
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Packers come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Patriots against 10 days' rest for the Packers. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Patriots by 5 (64%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Packers come in off the Panthers, the Patriots off the Dolphins. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Packers defense at -0.5 (15th) — 4.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+3.2, 5th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 1.9-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Patriots at 11.0 wins (favored in 15 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 1.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Patriots' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Packers'.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2022: Packers won 27-24 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08GBNE, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Patriots 64%, Packers 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Patriots contracts a buy at 59c or below and Packers contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Patriots in Week 9?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 5 points, a 64% win probability over the Packers. The Patriots rate 2nd of 32 (+5.4) and the Packers 5th (+2.9); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08GBNE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Packers have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 5-point line or the 64% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Patriots?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV08GBNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Patriots at 59c or below, or the Packers at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Patriots host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
What does the model project for the Patriots and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 11.0 wins (favored in 15) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Patriots?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Patriots at 64% over the Packers sit in that band, off a 5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.