Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Packers
37%
model win prob
Patriots
63%
model win prob
Model line
Patriots −4.5
Kalshi (Patriots)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 9, the Green Bay Packers travel to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Patriots 2nd of 32 (Playoff tier, +3.3) and the Packers 6th (Playoff tier, +1.4). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 4.5 — a 63% win probability for the Patriots.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 63% (Patriots) / 37% (Packers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Patriots in Week 9?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 4.5 points and gives them a 63% win probability over the Packers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Packers vs Patriots?
Home win probability 63% (Patriots), away 37% (Packers). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.9 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Patriots rate 2nd of 32 (Playoff tier), the Packers 6th (Playoff tier).
Can you trade Packers vs Patriots on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Patriots host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, November 8, 2026 in NFL Week 9, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.