Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Steelers by 3 in Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Week 16 2026 — 61% to win, and a Pittsburgh December game that has run a median 38°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Steelers at 56c or below (or Panthers at 34c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CAR
-1.8
PIT
-0.5
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Panthers
39%
model win prob
Steelers
61%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
35%
Madden 27
65%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Steelers at 56c or below, or the Panthers at 34c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Panthers at Steelers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||
| Steelers −10.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||
2 more rungsSteelers −13.5 → Steelers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Panthers at Steelers in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 12 Pittsburgh home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 38°F with 4 mph of wind, and 67% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 11°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees -0.5 for the Steelers, -1.8 for the Panthers, and lands on the Steelers by 3 (61%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Steelers offense grades -0.6 (21st of 32) against a Panthers defense at -1.7 (22nd) — 1.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Panthers offense (-0.8, 23rd) meets the Steelers defense (-0.4, 12th), a 0.3-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.3 projected wins for the Steelers against 7.6 for the Panthers, favored in 10 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Panthers'.
One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 6-0 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Steelers won 24-16 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Steelers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Steelers 61%, Panthers 39%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Steelers contracts a buy at 56c or below and Panthers contracts a buy at 34c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Panthers vs Steelers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT
- Market-implied (Steelers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Steelers)
- 61%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Steelers at 56c or below, or the Panthers at 34c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Panthers vs Steelers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Steelers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Panthers vs Steelers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Panthers vs Steelers in Week 16?
Our power-rating model picks the Steelers by 3 points, a 61% win probability over the Panthers, for a projected score of Steelers 24, Panthers 21 on a ratings-implied 44.8-point total. The Steelers rate 17th of 32 (-0.5) and the Panthers 24th (-1.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Pittsburgh games in December?
Across 12 Pittsburgh home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 38°F with 4 mph wind, 67% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 11°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 3-point line.
How do you take a position on Panthers vs Steelers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 56c or below, or the Panthers at 34c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Steelers host the Panthers?
Carolina Panthers visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.
What does the model project for the Steelers and Panthers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 8.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Panthers at 7.6 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Panthers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Panthers vs Steelers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Steelers at 56c or below or the Panthers at 34c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Panthers vs Steelers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 16 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC27CARPIT. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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