Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 3 (60% to win); the Browns won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Ravens at 62c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 3 (60% to win). The Browns won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Ravens: -3c — we archived the Ravens at 65c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 62c on Oct 18. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Baltimore led 10-0 after its first two possessions and did not score again. Cleveland had 107 yards entering the fourth quarter, per the AP, before Carson Schwesinger knocked the ball from Henry and Tyson Campbell recovered at the Baltimore 35. Audric Estime, signed from Minnesota’s practice squad this week, scored from two yards to tie it with 8:33 left. Szmyt missed from 48 with 3:44 left, but Deshaun Watson led a 10-play, 62-yard drive from his own 20, including a 33-yard throw to Jerry Jeudy, and after a blocked try was erased by an offside penalty on Baltimore’s K. Martin Szmyt made the 37-yarder with no time left. DraftKings opened Cleveland +6.5 and closed +3, with Lamar Jackson out for a second straight game; the Browns won outright, and 23 points finished under both the opening 44.5 and the closing 40.5.
Ravens 10—Browns 13
Final✗ Call missedThe chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had Cleveland at 39.5%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3-point Baltimore line. Cleveland won. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED, pricing Tyler Huntley for Jackson. The model’s own read on this game was past the review threshold, so the page printed no lean before kickoff. A call nobody could see is not a record, and it is not graded here. The ledger held no row on this game. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Eight visible WATCH rows went 3-5 and are graded apart, never folded into the record. Zay Flowers over 5.5 catches won on six, Jeudy over 1.5 catches won on four, and Justice Hill over 1.5 catches won on three. The losses: Henry over 1.5 catches (one), Rashod Bateman over 2.5 catches (none; he left in the second quarter), both Hill rushing overs at 9.5 and 14.5 (he caught three passes but had no carries), and Mark Andrews over 24.5 receiving yards (one catch for four). A Henry touchdown row is a suppressed stat the board never displayed, and it counts in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 4 to 40.5; the game landed on 23.
Q1
Baltimore opened with an 11-play, 66-yard drive that took 6:49 and ended with Huntley’s 2-yard touchdown to Cuevas, his first career score. After a Cleveland three-and-out the Ravens went 45 yards in five plays and Loop kicked a 34-yarder.
Q3
Every drive of the second quarter ended in a punt. Cleveland opened the second half with a 10-play, 42-yard drive that took 7:12 and ended with Szmyt’s 48-yard field goal. Baltimore reached field-goal range late in the third, but Loop’s 49-yarder early in the fourth went wide left.
Q4
On the first snap of Baltimore’s next possession, Schwesinger knocked the ball out of Henry’s hands and Campbell recovered at the Baltimore 35. Cleveland went 35 yards in seven plays and Estime scored from two yards with 8:33 left. “Put this one on me,” Henry said afterward. Szmyt then missed a 48-yarder wide left with 3:44 left.
Q4
Cleveland took over at its 20 with 1:59 left. Watson’s deep throw to Jeudy gained 33 yards to the Baltimore 29, and three short runs drained the Ravens’ timeouts. Szmyt’s 42-yard try with two seconds left was blocked by K. Martin, but Martin was flagged for offside, and from five yards closer Szmyt made the 37-yarder on the untimed down.
Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Deshaun Watson leads drive for winning field goal and Browns rally for 13-10 victory over Ravens
Lamar Jackson did not practise on Wednesday, is day to day, and has a "realistic chance" to play by Sunday according to a league source — so this game is an Oracle Fork, the matchup page above publishes our line both with him and without him, and our lean is withheld while the fork is under review. The matchup makes the fork unusually sharp. Cleveland plays man coverage on more snaps than any defense in the league; with Jackson that is the coverage he scrambles against best, and without him Baltimore just won a game throwing 4.7 yards in the air per attempt.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
Jackson sprained the left ankle in the 24-18 win over Tennessee and sat the Falcons game after sources gave him only a slim chance that week. On Wednesday he did not practise; Minter called him day to day, said "to Lamar’s credit, he’s working his butt off", and said he "will" return to practice when able — which is not a commitment to Sunday, and Jackson skipped his usual media availability. The ESPN report that he has a realistic chance to play is sourced to the league, not the club. That is the textbook condition for a fork. With Jackson, Baltimore has the quarterback ranked second in the league in Total QBR with the league’s highest yards per attempt and six touchdowns against one interception. Without Jackson, it has Tyler Huntley, who went 24-of-32 for 201 and two touchdowns against Atlanta, threw the tying score with 40 seconds left, went 5-for-5 on the overtime drive and sneaked in the winner — and Baltimore has now won three straight games Jackson did not start, going back to last season. The fork is not "good quarterback versus bad"; it is two different offenses, and the matchup page prices both.
Source: ESPN — Source: Lamar Jackson has realistic chance to play Ravens’ Week 6 game at Browns (2026-10-14)
Ravens pass offense · Browns coverage
This is why the fork matters more here than in most games. Cleveland plays man coverage on 44% of snaps, the highest rate in the league, and it works on the completion rate — 59% allowed, fourth — while leaking yards per completion and touchdowns. Jackson against man is a specific problem: 8.5 yards an attempt, fourth-best in the league, with a 13% scramble rate that is second, and opponents have already played man against him on a quarter of his dropbacks, sixth-most, so there is a sample. Against zone he is worse than you would think only in the sense that he is merely the league leader at 11.1 yards an attempt. Without him, Baltimore ran the Atlanta game plan: Huntley averaged 4.7 air yards an attempt, the lowest number Atlanta had faced all season, with one throw in six travelling ten yards. That offense is Derrick Henry — 102 yards on 24 carries plus an 18-yard touchdown catch against the Falcons — and a quarterback asked not to lose. Both versions have beaten Cleveland-shaped defenses; the worksheet’s own line is that this is the Browns’ best test since the opener.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Ravens–Browns Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Browns pass rush · Ravens pass protection
The trench story that does not depend on the fork. Baltimore’s Wednesday report lists six offensive linemen, all limited: Ronnie Stanley (rest, toe and ankle), Roger Rosengarten (knee), Cam Jurgens (concussion), John Simpson (groin), Andrew Vorhees (foot) and Emery Jones Jr. (knee). None is ruled out and most of it reads as maintenance on a line that just played an overtime game, but a concussion at centre is a real question, and the man across from it is Garrett, who is not on Cleveland’s report. Cleveland’s own front is thinner than its reputation: Mason Graham (knee and ankle), Mike Hall Jr. (ankle), Maliek Collins (foot) and Kalia Davis (quad) all sat Wednesday, four interior linemen, with Derek Barnett out at end as well. That is the half of the matchup that favours Henry. The Ravens have faced third down on 36% of their downs, the lowest rate in the league, which is what a 5-yards-a-carry run game does to a pass rush — Garrett has to win on first down or not at all.
Ravens pass rush · Browns pass protection
The one matchup where the home side is the problem for itself. Watson was sacked a season-high eight times by the Jets after two in each of the three games before it, and the worksheet credits him with 28% of his own pressures that day — when he holds the ball past two and a half seconds his sack rate is 18.6%, 29th among starters. He also throws deep more than almost anyone, with 29% of his attempts ten or more yards downfield, and completes 42% of them, 27th. The line in front of him did not practise: Tytus Howard (knee) and Teven Jenkins (back) both sat and Elgton Jenkins was limited with a knee. Baltimore’s rush brings Trey Hendrickson, a full participant with a finger, and a secondary that allows a 2.9% touchdown rate, fifth-best, which punishes exactly the throws Watson prefers. Cleveland is 3-2 with a minus-19 point differential, has been outscored 34-6 in first quarters, converts 31% of third downs and runs the ball with a 26% success rate; Quinshon Judkins did not practise with an ankle and Audric Estime was signed from Minnesota’s practice squad on Monday to cover for him.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Ravens–Browns Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: ESPN — Source: Lamar Jackson has realistic chance to play Ravens’ Week 6 game at Browns (2026-10-14) · CBS Sports — Lamar Jackson injury update: Ravens QB has "realistic chance" to play vs Browns · Yahoo Sports — Browns, Ravens send a long list of 36 injured players in their Wednesday reports (2026-10-14) · Baltimore Beatdown — Ravens list 19 players on first injury report of Week 6 · Dawgs By Nature — Browns, Ravens injury updates on Lamar Jackson, KC Concepcion and others · Russell Street Report — Injury report: Ravens @ Browns (Wednesday) · Sharp Football Analysis — Ravens–Browns Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · AP via News4Jax — Huntley leads late TD drive to force OT, scores on 1-yard run as Ravens beat Falcons 30-23 (2026-10-12) · Deseret News — Tyler Huntley’s first start of 2026 (box-score detail) · Yahoo Sports — NFL Week 6 live updates (Judkins DNP; Estime signed; McLaughlin/Estime contingency) · SI — Ravens vs Browns Week 6 preview (records) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
BAL
+1.2
CLE
-0.8
This one's been played. Get the full Week 6 card free, every remaining game priced against the market.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Ravens
60%
fair value (books)
Browns
40%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
67%
Madden 27
33%
Madden 27
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 — the graded call is above.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns is a AFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 16. The model has the Browns by 4.5 (62%) off a -0.8 to +1.2 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows. One input in this line is not a rating: the Ravens are without their usual starting quarterback (Tyler Huntley starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 4.0 points toward the Browns — already inside the number above.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Browns grade -2.1 on offense (29th of 32) and +1.2 on defense (4th); the Ravens +2.0 (10th) and -1.1 (17th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 16, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.9 projected wins for the Browns against 9.2 for the Ravens, favored in 8 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Ravens'.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Ravens won 23-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Browns are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 62% on the Browns here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 40% for the Browns. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Browns | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 39% 39c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
A live tile locked to Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×340
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="340" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
A live card locked to Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×300
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×280
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="280" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Ravens vs Browns, Week 6 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ravens-vs-browns-week-06-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Baltimore Ravens 10, Cleveland Browns 13 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 3 (60% to win), and the Browns won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Ravens by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Browns. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 16. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Browns by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Browns at 38c or below, or the Ravens at 58c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Baltimore Ravens visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Browns at 9.9 wins (favored in 8) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Ravens', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
Our model puts it at 40% against a market price implying 38%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 40% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 38% on CLE — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 6 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
They run it back in Week 16. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Ravens–Browns, Week 16 →
Seahawks at BroncosModel: even
Texans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5
Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5
Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5
Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5
Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5
Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5
Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2
Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5
Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3
Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
