Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 1 in Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns, NFL Week 6 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 3.3 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Browns at 43c or below (or Ravens at 47c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.3
CLE
-2.0
Ravens
52%
model win prob
Browns
48%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLEhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Browns at 43c or below, or the Ravens at 47c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Ravens–Browns is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Browns rate -2.0 (25th of 32), the Ravens +1.3 (12th) — 3.3 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 2nd-closest game of the 14 in Week 6. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Browns at 7.9 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Browns' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Ravens'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Ravens grade -0.3 on that side of the ball (12th of 32) against a Browns offense at -3.7 (31st) — 3.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Ravens offense (+1.2, 11th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 0.7-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (15th of 32) to -0.2 (31st).
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 16, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Ravens won 23-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Browns are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Ravens at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 48% / 52% — the tradable window is narrow: Browns at 43c or below, Ravens at 47c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Browns — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Browns in Week 6?
Our power-rating model favors the Ravens by 1 points, a 52% win probability over the Browns. The Browns rate 25th of 32 (-2.0) and the Ravens 12th (+1.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Browns (-2.0, 25th) and Ravens (+1.3, 12th) are only 3.3 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 48%/52%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Browns?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Browns at 43c or below, or the Ravens at 47c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Browns host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH.
What does the model project for the Browns and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Browns at 7.9 wins (favored in 6) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Ravens?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Ravens at 52% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 16. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Ravens–Browns, Week 16 →
More Week 6 matchups
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