Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 1 in Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns, NFL Week 6 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 3.5 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Browns at 43c or below (or Ravens at 47c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.2
CLE
-2.3
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Ravens
52%
model win prob
Browns
48%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
67%
Madden 27
33%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Browns at 43c or below, or the Ravens at 47c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
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Ravens–Browns is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Browns rate -2.3 (26th of 32), the Ravens +1.2 (13th) — 3.5 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 3rd-closest game of the 14 in Week 6. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Browns at 7.8 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Browns' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Ravens'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Ravens grade -0.3 on that side of the ball (11th of 32) against a Browns offense at -4.0 (31st) — 3.7 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Ravens offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 0.8-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (15th of 32) to -0.2 (31st).
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 16, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 35-13 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Ravens won 23-16 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Browns are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Ravens at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 48% / 52% — the tradable window is narrow: Browns at 43c or below, Ravens at 47c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Browns on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE
- Market-implied (Browns)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Browns)
- 48%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Browns at 43c or below, or the Ravens at 47c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Ravens vs Browns trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Browns | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Ravens vs Browns — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Browns in Week 6?
Our power-rating model favors the Ravens by 1 points, a 52% win probability over the Browns. The Browns rate 26th of 32 (-2.3) and the Ravens 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Browns (-2.3, 26th) and Ravens (+1.2, 13th) are only 3.5 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 48%/52%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Browns?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Browns at 43c or below, or the Ravens at 47c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Browns host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH.
What does the model project for the Browns and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Browns at 7.8 wins (favored in 6) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Ravens vs Browns?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Browns at 43c or below or the Ravens at 47c or below, off a 1-point line.
Can you trade Ravens vs Browns on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 6 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT18BALCLE. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Ravens?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Ravens at 52% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 16. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Ravens–Browns, Week 16 →
More Week 6 matchups
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