Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Vikings by 3 in Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 4 2026 — 61% to win, and Vikings 27th of 32, Dolphins 28th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 56c or below (or Dolphins at 34c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-3.3
MIN
-2.6
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Dolphins
39%
model win prob
Vikings
61%
model win prob
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32%
Madden 27
68%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 56c or below, or the Dolphins at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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What the model sees in Dolphins at Vikings
The Dolphins travel to face the Vikings in Week 4. Our power ratings put the Vikings 27th of 32 at -2.6 (Below Avg tier) and the Dolphins 28th at -3.3 (Below Avg tier) — a 0.7-point gap that home field widens to a 3-point line on the Vikings, 61% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 4.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Vikings grade -2.5 on offense (28th of 32) and -0.5 on defense (15th); the Dolphins -1.4 (26th) and -2.7 (28th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.2 projected wins for the Vikings against 6.7 for the Dolphins, favored in 4 and 2 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 17th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Dolphins'. It is the softest spot on the Vikings' entire schedule.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2022: Vikings won 24-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Vikings here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Vikings 61%, Dolphins 39%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Vikings contracts a buy at 56c or below and Dolphins contracts a buy at 34c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Vikings on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN
- Market-implied (Vikings)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Vikings)
- 61%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Vikings at 56c or below, or the Dolphins at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Dolphins vs Vikings trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Vikings | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Dolphins vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Vikings in Week 4?
Our power-rating model favors the Vikings by 3 points, a 61% win probability over the Dolphins. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Dolphins 28th (-3.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Dolphins vs Vikings?
Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th of 32) against Vikings defense (-0.5, 15th) — 0.9 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 56c or below, or the Dolphins at 34c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs Vikings?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Vikings at 56c or below or the Dolphins at 34c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Dolphins vs Vikings on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 4 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Vikings?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Vikings at 61% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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