Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Vikings by 3 in Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 4 2026 — 58% to win, and Vikings 27th of 32, Dolphins 28th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 53c or below (or Dolphins at 37c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-3.0
MIN
-2.6
Dolphins
42%
model win prob
Vikings
58%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMINhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 53c or below, or the Dolphins at 37c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Dolphins at Vikings
The Dolphins travel to face the Vikings in Week 4. Our power ratings put the Vikings 27th of 32 at -2.6 (Average tier) and the Dolphins 28th at -3.0 (Average tier) — a 0.4-point gap that home field widens to a 3-point line on the Vikings, 58% to win. It rates as the 5th-widest of the 16 games in Week 4.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Vikings grade -2.5 on offense (29th of 32) and -0.5 on defense (16th); the Dolphins -1.3 (25th) and -2.5 (28th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.1 projected wins for the Vikings against 6.7 for the Dolphins, favored in 4 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 17th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Dolphins'. It is the softest spot on the Vikings' entire schedule.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2022: Vikings won 24-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Vikings at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Vikings 58%, Dolphins 42%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Vikings contracts a buy at 53c or below and Dolphins contracts a buy at 37c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Vikings in Week 4?
Our power-rating model favors the Vikings by 3 points, a 58% win probability over the Dolphins. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Dolphins 28th (-3.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Dolphins vs Vikings?
Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th of 32) against Vikings defense (-0.5, 16th) — 0.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04MIAMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 53c or below, or the Dolphins at 37c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Vikings?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Vikings at 58% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 4 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 4 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.