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Home/NFL/Week 4/Colts vs Commanders
Gridiron EdgeWeek 4 · 2026

Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13

Final. Commanders' next game: Commanders vs Eagles, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom (neutral site)

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Colts by 4.5 (65% to win); the Colts won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Colts at 67c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Colts by 4.5 (65% to win). The Colts won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Colts: -1c — we archived the Colts at 68c on Sep 27; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 67c on Oct 4. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 4 · 2026-10-05

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Commanders moneylineModel 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 33% on WAS — kept as the pre-game record.33c35%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Colts 30, Commanders 13 in London: Marcus Mariota left after two drives, and Jonathan Taylor ran for two touchdowns

Washington was already without Jayden Daniels, and Mariota, starting in his place, left Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after the Commanders’ second drive with a knee injury that Dan Quinn said looks like an MCL. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis, the third-stringer, threw his first NFL touchdown, 47 yards to Treylon Burks, and it was 17-13 in the third quarter. Indianapolis then scored the last 13 points. Taylor ran 20 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns, and Spencer Shrader kicked three field goals. The line went from Commanders −1.5 at the open to Colts −4.5 at the close, a six-point swing toward the winner.

Colts 30—Commanders 13

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. Our stored probability had Washington at 34.5%, which is the market’s number anchored at weight zero to Colts −4.5, and the Colts won. The model’s own read was Colts by 5.1, half a point from the market, tier NONE. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED, so the line was priced with Mariota starting, and he lasted two drives. No game-line position exists for this game in the ledger, because a half-point lean is not a gap. The player board’s one PLAY row was Mariota under 1.5 touchdown passes, HIGH, YES at 39.5¢. It cashed, and the ledger graded it a win. Be clear about why: Mariota threw no touchdowns because he left the game, not because the read on him was right. Eight WATCH rows that count went 5-3 and are graded apart from the record. Daniel Jones under 1.5 touchdown passes and under 14.5 rushing yards both won, and Taylor split his ladder: under 109.5 won, under 59.5 lost. Mariota under 24.5 and 29.5 rushing yards lost on a single 35-yard run before he went out. Three more WATCH rows, Darius Slayton’s catches and two Terry McLaurin catch rungs, are ungraded: neither player appears in ESPN’s box score. Three WATCH rows on Jones’ passing yards are suppressed stats and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Commanders −1.5 → Colts −4.5
Total
48.5 → 46.5
Moneyline
IND −110 / WAS −110 → IND −225 / WAS +185

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 2 to 46.5; the game landed on 43.

How it happened

Q1

Washington got a fumble and two red-zone trips, and kicked two field goals

Indianapolis fumbled on its second snap, and Washington took over at the Colts’ 21 and settled for Drew Stevens’ 31-yarder. The next Commanders drive went 70 yards and also stalled, and Stevens kicked from 29 for a 6-0 lead. Mariota did not come back after that second drive. Washington finished 0 for 2 in the red zone and 2 for 15 on third down.

After one
Commanders 6, Colts 0
Washington red zone
0 TD in 2 trips
Mariota
3 of 4 · 46 yds; 1 rush · 35 yds

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Taylor scored from five yards twice, and Kaliakmanis answered with 47 to Burks

Taylor’s first five-yard run put the Colts ahead 7-6 with 3:23 left in the half, and Shrader’s 48-yarder at the gun made it 10-6. On Washington’s first drive of the second half, Jaylon Carlies intercepted Kaliakmanis and returned it to the 20, and four plays later Taylor scored from five again. Kaliakmanis came straight back, beating Sauce Gardner deep for a 47-yard touchdown to Burks, his first in the NFL, and it was 17-13.

Halftime
Colts 10, Commanders 6
Taylor
20 carries · 95 yds · 2 TD

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Shrader from 52, Jones from 4, and Washington turned it over on downs twice

Shrader kicked a 52-yarder for 20-13. Jones then capped a nine-play, 52-yard drive with a four-yard run early in the fourth for 27-13, and Shrader added a 44-yarder with 5:48 left. Washington’s two fourth-quarter drives both ended on downs. Jones overcame his own two turnovers, an interception and a fumble.

Final
Colts 30, Commanders 13
Jones
19 of 34 · 143 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT; 1 rush TD
Kaliakmanis
15 of 33 · 186 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
Shrader
3 FG (48, 52, 44)
Third down
IND 5 of 16 · WAS 2 of 15

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • This recap was written on 2026-10-09, five days after the game. The ledger graded the Mariota PLAY row a win on 2026-10-06. The WATCH tallies come from a script run against ESPN’s box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W4_LATE_AND_W3_SNF_RECAPS_2026-10-09/props-w04-ind-was.csv), not from the ledger. If the ledger ever disagrees with this page, the ledger is right.
  • Slayton and McLaurin do not appear in ESPN’s box score. Whether either was inactive or simply had no stat was not confirmed, so their WATCH rows are left ungraded rather than called misses.
  • The severity of Mariota’s knee injury was not known when this was published; Quinn’s MCL read was preliminary.
  • The DraftKings line moved six points. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not say how much of the move came before or after Daniels was ruled out.

Reporting verified 2026-10-09. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Jonathan Taylor runs for 2 TDs and Colts beat Commanders 30-13 in London · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

QB-adjusted: Marcus Mariota in London behind a blitz-heavy defense, against the league’s busiest running back and a Colts line that grades third

Jayden Daniels is out with the elbow he dislocated in Dallas, so Marcus Mariota — who beat Seattle with three touchdown passes and a read-option run on third-and-long — starts a 9:30 AM Eastern kickoff at Tottenham. Washington’s defense sends extra rushers more than almost anyone and stuffs a quarter of the runs it faces, which is the right profile against Jonathan Taylor’s 66 carries; the Colts’ answer is a line that grades third in football and a quarterback who has handled the blitz better than his five turnovers suggest. Both teams are 1-2 and both flew in on different schedules.

Injury and practice participation

McLaurin and Keenan Allen inactive; Daniels, Cosmi, Cross and White out for Washington; Pierce on IR and Slayton inactive for Indianapolis

Edge: Colts

Both No. 1 receivers are inactive. Washington ruled out Daniels, guard Sam Cosmi (concussion), safety Nick Cross (illness) and running back Rachaad White (shoulder) on Friday, and Terry McLaurin (hamstring), questionable after a Friday addition to the report, was declared inactive Sunday — his first missed game. Indianapolis downgraded Keenan Allen (groin) from questionable to out on Sunday and elevated Nick Westbrook-Ikhine from the practice squad; Alec Pierce (heel) is on injured reserve and Darius Slayton is inactive. Percy Butler (Washington, concussion) and Ashton Dulin (Indianapolis, ankle) were questionable and are active. The other inactives are Luke McCaffrey and Javontae Jean-Baptiste for Washington, and DJ Giddens, George Gumbs, Dalton Tucker and third quarterback Riley Leonard for Indianapolis.

Commanders OUT
Jayden Daniels, QB (elbow); Terry McLaurin, WR (hamstring, inactive Sunday); Sam Cosmi, G (concussion); Nick Cross, S (illness); Rachaad White, RB (shoulder)
Commanders ACTIVE (was questionable)
Percy Butler, S (concussion)
Colts ACTIVE (was questionable)
Ashton Dulin, WR (ankle)
Colts OUT
Keenan Allen, WR (groin, downgraded Sunday); Darius Slayton, WR (inactive); Alec Pierce, WR (heel) on IR since 09-29

Source: commanders.com — Game status: Commanders vs. Colts (2026-10-02)

Colts run game · Commanders front

Jonathan Taylor’s 66 carries against the league’s best run-stuff rate

Edge: Commanders

Taylor leads the NFL in carries with 66 for 258 yards and four touchdowns, but he is under four yards a carry and has not had a 100-yard game; Houston held him to 68 on 23 attempts. Washington is the wrong defense to fix that against: third in rushing yards allowed at 3.8 a carry, first in run-defense DVOA, and the owner of a league-best 25 percent stuff rate — 27 of 62 runs faced held to two yards or less. The Colts’ line grades third overall by PFF, so this is strength on strength, and it decides how many third-and-longs Daniel Jones sees against a blitz that comes 71 percent of the time in exactly that situation.

Jonathan Taylor
66 carries (1st), 258 yds, 4 TD — under 4.0 ypc, no 100-yard game; 23-68 vs. HOU
Commanders run defense
3.8 ypc allowed (3rd in yards); 25% stuff rate — NFL-best; 1st in run-defense DVOA
Colts offensive line
3rd overall, 9th in pass blocking (PFF)
Commanders on 3rd-and-long
Blitz 71% of the time

Source: NFL.com — Colts–Commanders Week 4 London preview (2026-10-01)

Both slots

Josh Downs against Mike Sainristil, and Washington’s slot receivers against Justin Walley

Close to even

The game inside the numbers is lopsided both ways. Downs is averaging 2.4 yards per route with a 33 percent target share over the last two weeks, and Sainristil has allowed a league-high five touchdowns and a 142 passer rating in coverage — and played only 26 of 67 snaps against Seattle. Going the other way, Colts slot corner Justin Walley has allowed 13 catches on 15 targets for 213 yards and two scores, and Washington runs Stefon Diggs through the slot on 44 routes with rookie Antonio Williams producing well above expectation. Mariota went 19-of-31 for 183 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Seattle; with McLaurin inactive, more of that goes to Diggs and Williams, and more of it goes at Walley.

Josh Downs
2.4 yds/route; 32.8% target share Weeks 2–3; +12.6 receiving EPA (15th)
Mike Sainristil
5 TD allowed — NFL-high; 142.4 rating allowed; 26 of 67 snaps vs. SEA
Justin Walley
13-of-15 for 213 yds and 2 TD allowed; 158.3 rating
Marcus Mariota, Week 3
19-of-31, 183 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 110.0 rating

Source: NFL.com — Colts–Commanders Week 4 London preview (2026-10-01)

What this read does not know

  • The model line on this page was run Friday at 16:51 ET, before Sunday’s inactives. Daniels is out by editorial override; McLaurin and Keenan Allen were declared inactive Sunday and are not in the model line. Both teams lost their No. 1 receiver, so the rooms are Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams for Washington and Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and Laquon Treadwell for Indianapolis.
  • QB-adjusted: Washington’s rating was built on Jayden Daniels. The model line on this page is adjusted for Mariota with a flat quarterback term, which does not know that Mariota beat Seattle or that Washington is 0-2-1 in international games; our lean is capped at WATCH and no game-line position is published.
  • Washington’s lead back is unreported. With White out, one outlet names Jacory Croskey-Merritt (20 touches last week) and another says Austin Ekeler is likely. Our slate carries Croskey-Merritt at a fraction of his Week 3 workload.
  • Travel is uneven and its effect is unmeasured. Washington flew Tuesday night and has been in England since Wednesday; Indianapolis practised at home through Thursday and took a red-eye to a Friday walkthrough. Both approaches have won London games.
  • The power ratings behind the model line are this week’s board (as-of 2026-09-30, written by the Week 4 pipeline run). The Colts’ rating carries a 41-point night in Baltimore and an overtime loss to Kansas City; Washington’s carries a half with Daniels and a half without him in Dallas.
  • Should you take Jonathan Taylor under 69.5 rushing yards? We hold it at WATCH, and here is the fork. Our model projects 68 yards on about 16 carries; Taylor has carried 22 times a game, which is why our own volume rule holds the call rather than publishing it. Under wins if Washington’s stuff rate is real against this line; over wins if Indianapolis simply keeps feeding him the way it has for three weeks.
  • Should you take Marcus Mariota under 1.5 passing touchdowns? It is on our board as a call, and here is the fork. Our model projects 1.1 touchdown passes and has him over 1.5 about 29% of the time; he threw three last week on 31 attempts. Under wins if Taylor’s volume and a 9:30 kickoff keep this a low-possession game; over wins if the Sainristil–Walley slot mismatch goes Washington’s way and Mariota throws it into the end zone again.

Reporting verified 2026-10-04. Further sources: colts.com — Colts announce 6 inactive players for Week 4 game vs. Commanders (2026-10-04) · Yahoo Sports — Colts v. Commanders inactives: Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin out (2026-10-04) · commanders.com — Game status: Commanders vs. Colts (2026-10-02) · colts.com — Colts do not rule out any players ahead of Week 4 vs. Commanders (2026-10-02) · AP via ClickOrlando — Mariota to start for Commanders in London with Daniels ruled out (2026-10-02) · NFL.com — Colts–Commanders Week 4 London preview (2026-10-01) · commanders.com — Three keys: Commanders vs. Colts (2026-10-02) · Colts On SI — Three matchups that will decide the Colts’ Week 4 game (2026-10-01) · Yahoo Sports — Colts’ Daniel Jones and the step vs. the blitz (2026-10-01) · NBC Sports — Mariota and the Commanders stun the Seahawks 33-31 (2026-09-27) · Yahoo Sports — McLaurin a surprise addition to the Commanders’ Friday report (2026-10-02) · NBC Sports — Keenan Allen misses Friday’s practice, questionable (2026-10-02) · colts.com — Colts release unofficial depth chart ahead of Week 4 (2026-09-29) · colts.com — Can you sleep on a plane? Questions ahead of the London game (2026-10-02) · Washington Sun — Commanders’ London travel plan (2026-10-01)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 4 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 4
AWAY IND -1.6
vs IND -4.5
HOME WAS -1.8
Fair (books) · WAS 35% home win prob
Kalshi · WAS — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 London, United Kingdom PASS — no position

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Colts

65%

fair value (books)

Commanders

35%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

55%

Madden 27

45%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Colts at Commanders How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Colts at CommandersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Colts at Commanders Kalshi spread ladder for Week 4: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Colts–Commanders spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Colts vs Commanders power ratings (Week 4) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Indianapolis Colts-1.624thAverage
    Washington Commanders-1.825thAverage

    Colts and Commanders season outlook

    INDWAS
    Average wins6.76.1
    Make playoffs14%8%
    Win division10%5%
    Win Super Bowl0.9%0.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Colts vs Commanders — player pages

    All players →

    Jonathan Taylor

    RB

    Tyler Warren

    TE

    Jayden Daniels

    QB

    Josh Downs

    WR

    Rachaad White

    RB

    Stefon Diggs

    WR

    Chig Okonkwo

    TE

    Daniel Jones

    QB

    Antonio Williams

    WR

    Keenan Allen

    Dyami Brown

    Seth McGowan

    Mo Alie-Cox

    Laquon Treadwell

    Will Mallory

    Austin Ekeler

    Jeremy McNichols

    WAS Commanders D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: No home field: pricing Colts–Commanders on neutral ground

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 — the graded call is above.

    The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so on ratings alone — -1.8 for the Commanders against -1.6 for the Colts — it is the Colts by 0.2. Then the Commanders are without their usual starting quarterback (Marcus Mariota starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 4.9 points toward the Colts — the Colts by 5 and 64% to win. The Commanders are the designated home team on paper only.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Commanders offense grades +0.3 (18th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.8 (22nd) — 2.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (-0.6, 21st) meets the Commanders defense (-2.4, 27th), a 1.9-point gap.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.1 projected wins for the Commanders against 6.7 for the Colts, favored in 7 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Colts'.

    One team has owned this series: the Colts are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Commanders won 17-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 64% on the Colts here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Colts vs Commanders on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS
    Market-implied (Commanders)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Commanders)
    35%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 35% for the Commanders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Colts vs Commanders trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

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    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
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    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
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    Watch the breakdown: Colts vs Commanders

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    Colts vs Commanders — frequently asked

    Who won Colts vs Commanders in Week 4?

    Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Colts by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Colts won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Colts vs Commanders before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Colts by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Commanders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Is there a home-field advantage in this game?

    No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Commanders are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Colts by 5 — is the raw ratings gap between -1.8 and -1.6.

    How do you take a position on Colts vs Commanders?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 33c or below, or the Colts at 63c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    Where do the Commanders and Colts play this game?

    Indianapolis Colts and the Washington Commanders meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom on Sunday, October 4, 2026, NFL Week 4. The Commanders are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.

    What does the model project for the Commanders and Colts this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 6.1 wins (favored in 7) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Colts', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Commanders?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Colts vs Commanders on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Colts?

    59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Colts at 64% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Commanders moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 33%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 33% on WAS — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Colts: Week 5 at SteelersModel line →Commanders: Week 5 vs GiantsModel line →

    More Week 4 matchups

    Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5Lions at PanthersModel: evenFalcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2

    Full Week 4 board →Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →

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