Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD

Colts

43%

model win prob

Commanders

57%

model win prob

Model line

Commanders −2.5

Kalshi (Commanders)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Commanders — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Indianapolis Colts-0.316thAverage

Washington Commanders-0.520thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 4, the Indianapolis Colts travel to face the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Commanders 20th of 32 (Average tier, -0.5) and the Colts 16th (Average tier, -0.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Commanders by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Commanders.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Commanders) / 43% (Colts) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Colts vs Commanders — frequently asked

Who is favored in Colts vs Commanders in Week 4?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Commanders by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Colts. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Colts vs Commanders?

Home win probability 57% (Commanders), away 43% (Colts). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Commanders rate 20th of 32 (Average tier), the Colts 16th (Average tier).

Can you trade Colts vs Commanders on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.