Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom (neutral site)
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 1 in Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 4 2026 — 52% to win, and a neutral-site game, so the model applies no home-field adjustment. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Commanders at 43c or below (or Colts at 47c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
+0.0
WAS
-1.5
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Colts
52%
model win prob
Commanders
48%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
55%
Madden 27
45%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Commanders at 43c or below, or the Colts at 47c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Colts at Commanders
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungsCommanders −7.5 → Commanders −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
No home field: pricing Colts–Commanders on neutral ground
The schedule flags this one as a neutral-site game, which changes how the number is built. The model zeroes out the usual 2.5-point home adjustment, so the line is pure ratings: -1.5 for the Commanders against +0.0 for the Colts, giving the Colts by 1 and 52% to win. The Commanders are the designated home team on paper only. Take home field out and the ratings gap is all that is left — which is why this number is a full 2.5 points different from what the same matchup would price at in Washington.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +1.1 (11th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 2.7-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 7.6 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Colts at 8.7 (favored in 10) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 13th-hardest on the Colts'.
One team has owned this series: the Colts are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Commanders won 17-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Colts at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 48% / 52% — the tradable window is narrow: Commanders at 43c or below, Colts at 47c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Commanders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS
- Market-implied (Commanders)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Commanders)
- 48%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Commanders at 43c or below, or the Colts at 47c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Colts vs Commanders trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Commanders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Colts vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Commanders in Week 4?
Our power-rating model picks the Colts by 1 points, a 52% win probability over the Commanders, for a projected score of Colts 26, Commanders 25 on a ratings-implied 50.7-point total. The Commanders rate 23rd of 32 (-1.5) and the Colts 15th (+0.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Is there a home-field advantage in this game?
No. The schedule flags it as a neutral-site game, so the model applies zero home-field points instead of the usual 2.5. The Commanders are the designated home team for scheduling purposes only. The resulting line — Colts by 1 — is the raw ratings gap between -1.5 and +0.0.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Commanders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 43c or below, or the Colts at 47c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Where do the Commanders and Colts play this game?
Indianapolis Colts and the Washington Commanders meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom on Sunday, October 4, 2026, NFL Week 4. The Commanders are the designated home team, so the game does not carry home-field advantage in our model.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.6 wins (favored in 3) and the Colts at 8.7 (favored in 10). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Commanders?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Commanders at 43c or below or the Colts at 47c or below, off a 1-point line.
Can you trade Colts vs Commanders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 4 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT04INDWAS. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Colts?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Colts at 52% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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