Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions

These two have played 63 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is dead even at 7-7 since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: +2.4 against -0.5, Lions by 5.5, 65% to win.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.2 (10th of 32) against a Buccaneers defense at -1.1 (20th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.5, 18th) meets the Lions defense (+0.6, 7th), a 0.2-point gap.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Buccaneers at 8.3 (favored in 7) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Buccaneers'. Nothing on the Buccaneers' schedule projects harder than this one.

On the calendar, the Buccaneers come off their bye and the Lions are on 7 days. The Buccaneers come in off the Bears, the Lions off the Patriots. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.

Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22TBDET, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Lions 65%, Buccaneers 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Lions contracts a buy at 60c or below and Buccaneers contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.