Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Buccaneers

39%

model win prob

Lions

61%

model win prob

Model line

Lions −4

Kalshi (Lions)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Lions — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.417thAverage

Detroit Lions+0.910thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 11, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, Detroit, MI. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Lions 10th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Buccaneers 17th (Average tier, -0.4). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Lions by 4 — a 61% win probability for the Lions.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 61% (Lions) / 39% (Buccaneers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Buccaneers vs Lions — frequently asked

Who is favored in Buccaneers vs Lions in Week 11?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Lions by 4 points and gives them a 61% win probability over the Buccaneers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Buccaneers vs Lions?

Home win probability 61% (Lions), away 39% (Buccaneers). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.3 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Lions rate 10th of 32 (Average tier), the Buccaneers 17th (Average tier).

Can you trade Buccaneers vs Lions on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.