Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Jaguars
52%
model win prob
Bengals
48%
model win prob
Model line
Jaguars −0.5
Kalshi (Bengals)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Jaguars — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 4, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bengals 19th of 32 (Average tier, -0.5) and the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier, +2.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Jaguars by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the Jaguars.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 48% (Bengals) / 52% (Jaguars) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Bengals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Bengals in Week 4?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Bengals. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Jaguars vs Bengals?
Home win probability 48% (Bengals), away 52% (Jaguars). That comes from a power-rating differential of -3.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bengals rate 19th of 32 (Average tier), the Jaguars 4th (Playoff tier).
Can you trade Jaguars vs Bengals on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Bengals host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, October 4, 2026 in NFL Week 4, at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH.
Get the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 4 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.