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Home/NFL/Week 4/Jaguars vs Bengals
Gridiron EdgeWeek 4 · 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17

Final. Bengals' next game: Bengals vs Titans, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 2.5 (59% to win); the Jaguars won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bengals at 56c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 2.5 (59% to win). The Jaguars won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Bengals: +2c — we archived the Bengals at 55c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 56c on Oct 4. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 4 · 2026-10-05

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Bengals moneylineModel 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on CIN — kept as the pre-game record.56c59%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Jacksonville 22, Cincinnati 17: Jourdan Lewis’ interception set up the touchdown that decided it, and Joe Burrow’s 428 yards ended on fourth down at the Jaguars’ end of the field

Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 23 for 227 yards and beat Cincinnati for the first time in four tries. Cam Little kicked field goals of 55, 28 and 54 yards, and the Jaguars intercepted Burrow twice, extending their franchise-record run to nine straight games with an interception. Cincinnati lost Ja’Marr Chase to a concussion in the second quarter and ran for 23 yards. Its last drive reached the Jacksonville 21 with under a minute left and ended on downs.

Jaguars 22—Bengals 17

Final✗ Call missed

Two claims on this page, on opposite teams. The chip grades the stored probability, which had Cincinnati at 58.8% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from a 2.5-point line — and Cincinnati lost, so the chip reads a miss. The model’s own read was the winner: Jacksonville by 0.3, a 2.8-point WATCH lean toward the Jaguars, who won by five. The ledger’s position was on the other team. 2026_04_JAX_CIN_moneyline is a MODERATE row on Cincinnati, entered at 55.5c on Monday 2026-09-28 against the anchored Cincinnati at 58.8%, a 3.25-point edge to the Bengals. That edge is the books’ price against Kalshi’s, not the model’s read, which leaned the other way. The contract closed at 56.5c, a CLV of plus 1c, and Cincinnati lost, which the score grades a loss. Saturday’s article made one call here, and it cleared: Parker Washington under 7 receptions, the NO at 70c, PLAY, HIGH. He caught one pass on three targets. The final player board’s one PLAY row on this game cleared too: Lawrence under 2.5 touchdown passes, HIGH, with the YES at 25c so the NO cost 75c, the YES closing at 25.5c. He threw one. Two WATCH rows that count went 1-1 and are graded apart.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bengals −2.5 → Bengals −2.5
Total
51.5 → 51.5
Moneyline
JAX +114 / CIN −135 → JAX +124 / CIN −148

The spread did not move.

How it happened

Q1

A three-and-out, then Little from 55

Jacksonville went three-and-out on its first drive and scored on its next four. The first was Little’s 55-yard field goal with 2:18 left in the quarter.

After one
Jaguars 3, Bengals 0

ESPN — box score

Q2

Lewis picked off Burrow and returned it to the 18; four plays later Lawrence found Brian Thomas Jr.

Evan McPherson and Little traded field goals for 6-3. Lewis then intercepted Burrow’s throw for Dohnte Meyers and returned it 45 yards to the Cincinnati 18, and Lawrence found Thomas alone at the back of the end zone from seven yards with 1:23 left in the half. Chase left in the quarter with a concussion.

Halftime
Jaguars 13, Bengals 3
Lewis interception return
45 yds to CIN 18
Jaguars games in a row with an INT
9 (franchise record)

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Gesicki brought Cincinnati within three, and Little answered from 54

The Bengals opened the half with a 12-play drive that ended in Mike Gesicki’s 15-yard touchdown catch at 8:44, 13-10. Little’s 54-yarder with three minutes left in the quarter restored a six-point lead.

After three
Jaguars 16, Bengals 10

ESPN — box score

Q4

Rodriguez from 25, Burrow from 1, and three incompletions before fourth down

Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran 25 yards off left guard for 22-10 at 6:35; the two-point try failed. Burrow sneaked in from a yard at 3:28. Washington looked to have ended it with a 39-yard screen, but replay put him out of bounds at the Cincinnati 48, and the Bengals got the ball back at their 17 with 1:44 left. Burrow reached the Jacksonville 21, threw three straight incompletions, and Chase Brown was stopped short after a catch on fourth-and-10.

Burrow
39/54 · 428 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT
Lawrence
18/23 · 227 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Bengals rushing
23 yds

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. 2026_04_JAX_CIN_moneyline carried no result, pnl_cents or graded_at when this was written (2026-10-04, 22:10 UTC); the outcome above is derived from the final score, and the prop grades from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W4_SUNDAY_EARLY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w04-sunday-early.csv), never by hand. entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The Cincinnati moneyline row was captured 2026-09-28. The preview on this page carries no game-line call. Whether the row showed on the edges board on Sunday morning was not checked against a page snapshot.
  • The AP places a 55-yard Little field goal just before Rodriguez’s touchdown; the scoring log has the 55-yarder in the first quarter and a 54-yarder in the third. The log is used.
  • Tee Higgins’ line is 11 catches for 151 yards in the AP and 11 for 157 on the box score; neither is used in prose.
  • Where Brown was stopped on the final fourth down is the Jacksonville 12 in the AP; the drive chart ends the possession at the Jacksonville 21. The spot is left out.
  • Saturday’s article call in this game was originally Lawrence under 15 rushing yards; it was replaced with the Washington under on Sunday morning, before kickoff, and only the Washington call is graded here.
  • Ja’Marr Chase (concussion), Caleb Ransaw (knee) and Eric Murray (concussion) had no confirmed timeline when this was published.

Reporting verified 2026-10-04. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Trevor Lawrence finally gets 1st win over Bengals as Jaguars hold on for 22-17 victory · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

Two healthy cornerbacks against Ja’Marr Chase, and the league’s lowest blitz rate against Trevor Lawrence

Both teams are 2-1 and both quarterback rooms are clean, so this one is decided by bodies and by tendency. Jacksonville arrives with the best scoring defense in football at 12.0 points a game, off a 35-6 win over New England, and with a cornerback room in which only two players are described as fully healthy. Cincinnati lost 30-27 at Pittsburgh and will answer with a defense that blitzes less than anyone in the league while three of its safeties take the week day by day.

Injury and practice participation

The quarterback question is settled — what is actually hurt is a safety room and a cornerback room

Close to even

Start with what is not a story: neither Trevor Lawrence nor Joe Burrow appears anywhere on the Week 4 report, on the league’s own page or on the home club’s. The gate passes on both rooms and there is no quarterback read on this page. What is left is more interesting than usual, because the injuries on both sides land exactly on the units the two matchups below turn on. Cincinnati had all three of its top safeties compromised on Wednesday — Jordan Battle (hamstring) and Bryan Cook (ankle) limited, Kyle Dugger (quadricep) out of practice entirely — with Zac Taylor describing it as day by day for all three and Cook’s absence as veteran maintenance. Right guard Dalton Risner (knee) did not practise and Jalen Rivers took his reps; B.J. Hill (Achilles) stretched with the team but has now missed two games; Colbie Young (knee) is out for Sunday and will not practise this week. Jacksonville’s report is shorter and sits almost entirely at cornerback: Christian Braswell (knee) and Montaric Brown (hamstring) limited, Jarrian Jones (hip) full. Albert Regis (elbow), who missed Week 3, is expected back per Liam Coen.

Burrow and Lawrence
Neither on the Week 4 injury report
Bengals safeties
Battle (hamstring) and Cook (ankle) limited; Dugger (quadricep) DNP Wednesday
Dalton Risner (knee)
DNP Wednesday
B.J. Hill (Achilles)
DNP Wednesday
Colbie Young (knee)
DNP Wednesday
Jaguars cornerbacks
Braswell (knee) and Brown (hamstring) limited; Jones (hip) full

Source: bengals.com — Week 4 injury report: Jaguars at Bengals

Bengals pass offense · Jaguars coverage

Ja’Marr Chase against a cornerback room with two bodies at full health

Edge: Jaguars

This is the matchup Jacksonville has the least cover for. By its own beat’s accounting only Travis Hunter and Jourdan Lewis are 100 percent healthy in the room; Braswell and Brown were both limited on Wednesday, and Brown’s hamstring is the most plausible explanation for a Week 3 snap count that was his lowest since he came back from a camp injury last season. The man on the other side is the one receiver you do not want to meet short-handed — in the last meeting between these teams Chase was targeted sixteen times, caught fourteen of them for 165 yards and a touchdown. Coen’s own framing of the Chase–Burrow connection was that "it’s hard to find better." The counterweight is that this is the best scoring defense in the league precisely because it wins the downs that matter: Jacksonville is second in red-zone touchdown rate allowed at 14 percent, second on third down at 29.0 percent, and it is the only team in football to have forced multiple takeaways inside its own red zone. Chase will get his yards. Whether they become points is the question.

Jaguars cornerback room
Only Hunter and Lewis described as fully healthy
Chase in the last meeting
14 rec on 16 targets, 165 yds, 1 TD
Montaric Brown
Lowest snap count since returning from last year’s camp injury in Week 3
Ja’Marr Chase
Not on the Week 4 injury report

Source: Yahoo Sports — Jaguars’ Week 4 injury report brings one position group into focus

Jaguars pass offense · Bengals coverage and rush

Trevor Lawrence’s intermediate throws against a defense that will not send an extra rusher

Edge: Bengals

Cincinnati blitzes at 15.2 percent, the lowest rate in the league, which is a defensible choice when the four-man rush gets there and an expensive one when it does not: with pressure the Bengals allow 4.8 yards an attempt, eleventh-best, and without it 8.3, twenty-seventh. They are also giving up a league-high 7.3 yards per play on first down, which is the down on which Jacksonville most wants to throw. The Bengals’ own Week 4 scouting report supplies the uncomfortable overlay — Lawrence leads qualified passers in the share of his throws travelling between ten and twenty air yards, at 37 percent, with a 107.8 passer rating and seven touchdowns to two interceptions. That is the exact window a four-man rush and a safety room taking the week day by day has to defend. Jacksonville has also been a first-half team to a degree nothing else on the slate matches, outscoring opponents 48-6 before halftime, so Cincinnati does not get to find this out slowly.

Bengals blitz rate
15.2% — lowest in the league
Bengals with pressure
4.8 yds/attempt allowed — 11th
Bengals without pressure
8.3 yds/attempt allowed — 27th
Bengals on first down
7.3 yds/play allowed — league-high
Jaguars first half
Outscored opponents 48-6 — largest margin in the league

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Jaguars–Bengals Week 4 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

What this read does not know

  • The injury feed we read is practice participation, not game-status designations. Our Week 4 report is practice participation only and was fetched 2026-10-01 12:01Z, which is Thursday — Friday’s out/doubtful/questionable filings are not in it. Every body above is Wednesday-accurate and no more, and the two matchup reads depend on exactly the players whose status Friday will decide.
  • The power ratings behind the model line are this week’s board (as-of 2026-09-30, written by the Week 4 pipeline run). An earlier version of this read called them stale; that was a freshness label on our own tool scoring a weekly board against a daily clock, fixed on 2026-10-01.
  • Cincinnati’s safety room is unresolved in a way that changes the third read. Taylor called it day by day for Battle, Cook and Dugger, and Cook’s limitation was described as maintenance rather than injury. A defense that does not blitz is asking its back end to hold up in the intermediate window — and we do not know which three safeties are in that back end on Sunday, or at what capacity.
  • Jacksonville’s cornerback room may be healthier than it reads, or less. "Fully healthy" for Hunter and Lewis is a beat-writer characterisation, not a club statement, and we have no snap-count plan for Hunter, who is used on both sides of the ball. Braswell and Brown were limited without any indication of whether that is precaution or restriction.
  • Jacksonville’s defensive profile is three games old and front-loaded by one blowout. The 12.0 points allowed, the 48-6 first-half margin and the red-zone and third-down ranks all include a 35-6 win over New England. Those are real results, not projections, but a single lopsided game moves every one of those rates a long way, and none of them has been tested by an offense with Cincinnati’s pass rate (61.8 percent, 7th).
  • One secondary outlet returned a preview for the wrong season entirely when we pulled it, with 2012 rosters in it, and a Ja’Marr Chase "questionable — illness" designation in the feed turned out to belong to a different week. Neither is used above. Where sources conflicted we took the clubs and the league report; the Bengals’ defensive rate stats above come from one worksheet and were not cross-checked against a second.
  • Should you take Chase Brown under 69.5 rushing yards? Maybe — it turns on how much Cincinnati gives him. Our model projects 51.5 yards on 14.5 carries and has him over 69.5 about 30% of the time, which is why it leans under. But he has carried 16, 20 and 13 times in his three games and run for 56, 80 and 61 — the line sits almost exactly on what he has done. If the Bengals hand him his usual 16 or more, the under is thin and we would pass. If the game tilts toward Burrow and the passing game and his carries fall back toward 13, our number has room. That is why it is a WATCH on our board rather than a call: it is a question about Sunday’s game plan, not one our model can answer.

Reporting verified 2026-10-02. Further sources: bengals.com — Week 4 injury report: Jaguars at Bengals · bengals.com — Jaguars–Bengals Week 4 opponent preview and scouting report · NFL.com — official Week 4 injury report (practice participation) · Yahoo Sports — Jaguars’ Week 4 injury report brings one position group into focus · Yahoo Sports — Jaguars vs. Bengals: first look at the Week 4 injury report · A to Z Sports — Bengals’ first Week 4 injury report: Risner, Dugger, Cook, Battle · Sharp Football Analysis — Jaguars–Bengals Week 4 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · jaguars.com — Game report, 2026 Week 3: Jaguars 35, Patriots 6 · Action News Jax — Jaguars’ defense: epitome of “situational masters” · ClutchPoints — Bengals defense faces revealing test against the Jaguars offense in Week 4 · Yahoo Sports — The Bengals’ NFL rankings tell the story of their 2-1 start

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 4 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 4
AWAY JAX +2.8
vs CIN -2.5
HOME CIN +1.3
Fair (books) · CIN 59% home win prob
Kalshi · CIN — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Cincinnati, OH PASS — no position

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Jaguars

41%

fair value (books)

Bengals

59%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

37%

Madden 27

63%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Jaguars at Bengals How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Jaguars at BengalsSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Jaguars at Bengals Kalshi spread ladder for Week 4: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Jaguars–Bengals spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Jaguars vs Bengals power ratings (Week 4) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Jacksonville Jaguars+2.85thPlayoff
    Cincinnati Bengals+1.310thPlayoff

    Jaguars and Bengals season outlook

    JAXCIN
    Average wins10.610.4
    Make playoffs80%69%
    Win division73%35%
    Win Super Bowl8.6%4.0%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Jaguars vs Bengals — player pages

    All players →

    Ja'Marr Chase

    WR

    Chase Brown

    RB

    Parker Washington

    WR

    Tee Higgins

    WR

    Joe Burrow

    QB

    Bhayshul Tuten

    RB

    Brian Thomas Jr.

    WR

    Trevor Lawrence

    QB

    Jakobi Meyers

    WR

    Chris Rodriguez Jr.

    RB

    Brenton Strange

    TE

    Travis Hunter

    WR

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Jaguars–Bengals is a coin flip on our numbers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 — the graded call is above.

    There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Bengals rate +1.3 (10th of 32), the Jaguars +2.8 (5th) — 1.5 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the 5th-closest game of the 16 in Week 4. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.4 projected wins for the Bengals against 10.6 for the Jaguars, favored in 12 and 12 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars'.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +2.3 (6th of 32) against a Bengals defense at -0.9 (18th) — 3.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bengals offense (+1.5, 11th) meets the Jaguars defense (-0.3, 15th), a 1.8-point gap.

    One team has owned this series: the Bengals are 8-4 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Bengals won 31-27 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Bengals are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 11 Cincinnati home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 66°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jaguars at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04JACCIN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Jaguars vs Bengals on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT04JACCIN
    Market-implied (Bengals)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Bengals)
    59%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Bengals. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Jaguars vs Bengals trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueBengalsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig56% 56cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Jaguars vs Bengals

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    Jaguars vs Bengals — frequently asked

    Who won Jaguars vs Bengals in Week 4?

    Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Cincinnati Bengals 17 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bengals by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Jaguars won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Jaguars vs Bengals before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Bengals by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Jaguars. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04JACCIN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Bengals (+1.3, 10th) and Jaguars (+2.8, 5th) are only 1.5 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 59%/41%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Bengals?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04JACCIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bengals at 57c or below, or the Jaguars at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Bengals host the Jaguars?

    Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH.

    What does the model project for the Bengals and Jaguars this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Bengals at 10.4 wins (favored in 12) and the Jaguars at 10.6 (favored in 12). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Bengals' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Jaguars vs Bengals?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04JACCIN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Jaguars vs Bengals on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04JACCIN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Jaguars?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jaguars at 51% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Bengals moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 56%, an edge of +2.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on CIN — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Jaguars: Week 5 vs EaglesModel line →Bengals: Week 5 at DolphinsModel line →

    More Week 4 matchups

    Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5Lions at PanthersModel: evenFalcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2

    Full Week 4 board →Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →

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