Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, January 10, 2027 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 0.5 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 18 2026 — 51% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.8 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10JACIND yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 44c or below (or Jaguars at 46c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.7
IND
-0.1
Jaguars
51%
model win prob
Colts
49%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN10JACINDhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 44c or below, or the Jaguars at 46c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Jaguars–Colts is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Colts rate -0.1 (15th of 32), the Jaguars +2.7 (6th) — 2.8 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 16 in Week 18. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Colts against 9.5 for the Jaguars, favored in 10 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 7th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Jaguars'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.7 (23rd) — 3.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (+0.9, 14th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 0.9-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 8, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC South race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Colts' favour. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 23-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Colts are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Jaguars at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-27JAN10JACIND is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 49% / 51% — the tradable window is narrow: Colts at 44c or below, Jaguars at 46c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Colts in Week 18?
Our power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 0.5 points, a 51% win probability over the Colts. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (-0.1) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10JACIND yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Colts (-0.1, 15th) and Jaguars (+2.7, 6th) are only 2.8 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 49%/51%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN10JACIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 44c or below, or the Jaguars at 46c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, January 10, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 18, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Jaguars?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Jaguars at 51% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 8. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Jaguars–Colts, Week 8 →
More Week 18 matchups
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