Kalshi NFL Markets: Odds, Edges & How to Trade
Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade NFL outcomes in all 50 states — game winners, season win totals, division, conference, Super Bowl and MVP. We price every one of those markets against our DAEPA model and surface the games where Kalshi looks wrong. Here is how the markets work, what is listed, and where the live edges are.
66.2% model accuracy · 6,218 games validated · Methodology →
Live edges: our model vs. Kalshi
Where the DAEPA win probability and the Kalshi contract price disagree by the widest margin.
IND
BAL @ IND · Week 1 ML
ARI
ARI @ LAC · Week 1 ML
MIA
MIA @ LV · Week 1 ML
GB
GB @ MIN · Week 1 ML
NE
NE @ SEA · Week 1 ML
Model = DAEPA-implied win probability · Kalshi = live contract price · Edge in percentage points (pp). Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Every NFL market on Kalshi
Kalshi lists the full NFL board. Each market below links to where we price it against our model — game lines, win totals, champions and MVP.
Game winner (moneyline)
KXNFLGAMEPer-game model line vs. Kalshi, week by week
Season win totals
KXNFLWINSAll 32 teams, our projection vs. the strike ladder
Win-total edges (Pro)
KXNFLWINSMonte Carlo wins vs. the Kalshi over/under
Division · Conference · Super Bowl
KXNFL / KXSBPlayoff-sim probabilities vs. champion markets
NFL MVP
KXNFLMVPQB-led model vs. the live MVP board
Power ratings
—All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale (free)
How our model ranks the field
Top 8 teams by DAEPA power rating — the input behind every Kalshi NFL edge above.
Kalshi NFL — frequently asked
Can you trade NFL games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL event contracts — including individual game winners (the KXNFLGAME series), season win totals (KXNFLWINS), division, conference and Super Bowl champions, and NFL MVP. You take a yes/no position on an outcome and the contract settles at $1 if it happens, $0 if it does not.
Is Kalshi legal in the US for NFL markets?
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, so its NFL event contracts are legally available to traders across all 50 states — including states where traditional sports wagering is not offered. It is regulated as a financial exchange, not as a sportsbook.
How does Kalshi price an NFL game?
A Kalshi NFL contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price is the market-implied probability of the outcome — a team priced at 60¢ is a 60% market favorite. The price moves with order flow as traders buy and sell, the same way a stock does, rather than being set by a house. Our DAEPA model produces an independent win probability for the same game, and the gap between the two is the edge.
Can you make money trading NFL on Kalshi?
You profit when you buy a contract for less than its true probability of settling — i.e. when the market price is wrong. Our DAEPA power-rating model graded 66.2% accuracy over 6,218 historical games, and we surface the games where the model and the Kalshi price disagree by 5 percentage points or more. The edge board above shows the current ones; trade responsibly.
What NFL markets does Kalshi list?
Game winners (moneyline, KXNFLGAME), season win totals over/under for all 32 teams (KXNFLWINS), division winners, conference champions, the Super Bowl champion, and NFL MVP. Game markets list well ahead of kickoff — the 2026 Week 1 slate opened in May; futures (win totals, champion, MVP) trade year-round.
Kalshi vs a sportsbook for NFL — what is the difference?
A sportsbook sets a line and bakes in vig (the house margin), so both sides of a market add up to more than 100%. Kalshi is a peer-to-peer exchange with no vig — the price is a clean probability, you can sell your position before the game ends, and the same contract is available in all 50 states. That makes the Kalshi price a sharper read on true odds than a vigged book line.
When do Kalshi NFL game markets open for the 2026 season?
Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season kicks off September 9–10, 2026, and Kalshi listed the Week 1 game markets back in May — months ahead of kickoff. Season-long futures — win totals, division, conference, Super Bowl and MVP — are already trading and update through the summer.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.