Kalshi NFL Markets: Odds, Edges & How to Trade
Model as of · prices live
Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade NFL outcomes in all 50 states — game winners, season win totals, division, conference, Super Bowl and MVP. We price every one of those markets against our DAEPA model and surface the games where Kalshi looks wrong. Here is how the markets work, what is listed, and where the live edges are.
59.6% straight-up model accuracy · 3,266 games validated · no market line used · Methodology →
Live edges: our model vs. Kalshi
Where the DAEPA win probability and the Kalshi contract price disagree by the widest margin.
IND
BAL @ IND · Moneyline
GB
GB @ MIN · Moneyline
ATL
ATL @ PIT · Moneyline
CLE
CLE @ JAX · Moneyline
CAR
CHI @ CAR · Moneyline
Model = DAEPA-implied win probability · Kalshi = live contract price · Edge in percentage points (pp). Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Kalshi player props vs the sportsbook consensus
Updated Sep 11, 10:00 PM ETThis week’s NFL player-prop strikes that both venues price, ranked by how far apart they are. Every number is the venue’s own: a Kalshi mid, a sportsbook’s own line read at that strike, an exchange’s raw quote. The right-hand column is where the cheaper price for each side actually sits, in cents per $1 of payout, Kalshi net of its fee.
| Player · prop | Kalshi | Sportsbook consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson70+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 5.5% | 50.3% | -44.8pp | over · DraftKings line 4.5¢ (next 6.4¢) | Kalshi → |
| Brian Robinson60+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 5.5% | 50.2% | -44.7pp | over · Kalshi 6.4¢ (next 6.8¢) | Kalshi → |
| Michael Mayer3+ recLV v MIA | 80.5% | 38.9% | +41.6pp | over · Novig 40.5¢ (next 41.7¢)under · Kalshi 21.1¢ (next 37¢) | Kalshi → |
| Brian Robinson50+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 12.5% | 50.2% | -37.7pp | over · DraftKings line 11.1¢ (next 13.8¢) | Kalshi → |
| Bijan Robinson40+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 86.5% | 50.1% | +36.4pp | over · DraftKings line 19.4¢ (next 23.8¢) | Kalshi → |
| Brian Robinson40+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 17.0% | 50.1% | -33.1pp | over · Kalshi 19¢ (next 19.4¢) | Kalshi → |
| Bijan Robinson50+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 78.0% | 50.2% | +27.8pp | over · DraftKings line 11.1¢ (next 14.8¢) | Kalshi → |
| Jalen Nailor3+ recLV v MIA | 61.0% | 37.6% | +23.4pp | over · Novig 39.5¢ (next 63.7¢) | Kalshi → |
| Brian Robinson30+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 29.5% | 50.0% | -20.5pp | over · Kalshi 31.5¢ (next 34.8¢) | Kalshi → |
| Michael Mayer4+ recLV v MIA | 64.5% | 44.4% | +20.1pp | over · Novig 25¢ (next 66.6¢) | Kalshi → |
Full board: 1,828 priced prop strikes this week →Prices are informational; verify the contract before trading.
Every NFL market on Kalshi
Kalshi lists the full NFL board. Each market below links to where we price it against our model — game lines, win totals, champions and MVP.
Game winner (moneyline)
KXNFLGAMEPer-game model line vs. Kalshi, week by week
Season win totals
KXNFLWINSAll 32 teams, our projection vs. the strike ladder
Win-total edges (free through Week 1)
KXNFLWINSMonte Carlo wins vs. the Kalshi over/under
Division · Conference · Super Bowl
KXNFL / KXSBPlayoff-sim probabilities vs. champion markets
NFL MVP
KXNFLMVPQB-led model vs. the live MVP board
Power ratings
—All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale (free)
How our model ranks the field
Top 8 teams by DAEPA power rating — the input behind every Kalshi NFL edge above.
Kalshi NFL — frequently asked
Can you trade NFL games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL event contracts — including individual game winners (the KXNFLGAME series), season win totals (KXNFLWINS), division, conference and Super Bowl champions, and NFL MVP. You take a yes/no position on an outcome and the contract settles at $1 if it happens, $0 if it does not.
Is Kalshi legal in the US for NFL markets?
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, so its NFL event contracts are legally available to traders across all 50 states — including states where traditional sports wagering is not offered. It is regulated as a financial exchange, not as a sportsbook.
How does Kalshi price an NFL game?
A Kalshi NFL contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price is the market-implied probability of the outcome — a team priced at 60¢ is a 60% market favorite. The price moves with order flow as traders buy and sell, the same way a stock does, rather than being set by a house. Our DAEPA model produces an independent win probability for the same game, and the gap between the two is the edge.
Can you make money trading NFL on Kalshi?
You profit when you buy a contract for less than its true probability of settling — i.e. when the market price is wrong. Our DAEPA power-rating model graded 59.6% straight-up accuracy over 3,266 historical games with no market line among its inputs, and its hit rate climbs to 71.5% on the games where it flags an edge above 20%. We surface the games where the model and the Kalshi price disagree by 5 percentage points or more. The edge board above shows the current ones; trade responsibly.
What NFL markets does Kalshi list?
Game winners (moneyline, KXNFLGAME), season win totals over/under for all 32 teams (KXNFLWINS), division winners, conference champions, the Super Bowl champion, and NFL MVP. Game markets list well ahead of kickoff — the 2026 Week 1 slate opened in May; futures (win totals, champion, MVP) trade year-round.
Kalshi vs a sportsbook for NFL — what is the difference?
A sportsbook sets a line and bakes in vig (the house margin), so both sides of a market add up to more than 100%. Kalshi is a peer-to-peer exchange with no vig — the price is a clean probability, you can sell your position before the game ends, and the same contract is available in all 50 states. That makes the Kalshi price a sharper read on true odds than a vigged book line.
When do Kalshi NFL game markets open for the 2026 season?
Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season kicks off September 9–10, 2026, and Kalshi listed the Week 1 game markets back in May — months ahead of kickoff. Season-long futures — win totals, division, conference, Super Bowl and MVP — are already trading and update through the summer.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale