Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 29, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Falcons

41%

model win prob

Vikings

59%

model win prob

Model line

Vikings −3

Kalshi (Vikings)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Vikings — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Atlanta Falcons-0.620thAverage

Minnesota Vikings-0.216thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 12, the Atlanta Falcons travel to face the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Vikings 16th of 32 (Average tier, -0.2) and the Falcons 20th (Average tier, -0.6). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Vikings by 3 — a 59% win probability for the Vikings.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 59% (Vikings) / 41% (Falcons) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Falcons vs Vikings — frequently asked

Who is favored in Falcons vs Vikings in Week 12?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Vikings by 3 points and gives them a 59% win probability over the Falcons. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Falcons vs Vikings?

Home win probability 59% (Vikings), away 41% (Falcons). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Vikings rate 16th of 32 (Average tier), the Falcons 20th (Average tier).

Can you trade Falcons vs Vikings on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.