Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Vikings by 0.5 in Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 12 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.2 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 47c or below (or Falcons at 43c or below) is where the model would take a position.
ATL
-0.4
MIN
-2.6
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Falcons
48%
model win prob
Vikings
52%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
46%
Madden 27
54%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 47c or below, or the Falcons at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Falcons at Vikings
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Vikings −7.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 more rungsVikings −9.5 → Vikings −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Falcons–Vikings is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Falcons rate -0.4 (16th of 32) against -2.6 for the Vikings (27th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 2.2-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Vikings anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 16 games in Week 12, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Falcons at 8.6 (favored in 8) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Falcons'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Falcons grade -0.7 on that side of the ball (17th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.5 (28th) — 1.8 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (+0.2, 19th) meets the Vikings defense (-0.5, 15th), a 0.7-point gap.
On the calendar, the Falcons come off their bye and the Vikings are on 7 days. The Falcons come in off the Chiefs, the Vikings off the 49ers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 14 regular-season meetings since 2002, 8-6 in the Vikings' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Falcons won 22-6 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Vikings at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 52% / 48% — the tradable window is narrow: Vikings at 47c or below, Falcons at 43c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Falcons vs Vikings on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN
- Market-implied (Vikings)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Vikings)
- 52%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Vikings at 47c or below, or the Falcons at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Falcons vs Vikings trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Vikings | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Falcons vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Falcons vs Vikings in Week 12?
Our power-rating model picks the Vikings by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Falcons, for a projected score of Vikings 22, Falcons 21 on a ratings-implied 42.9-point total. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Falcons 16th (-0.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Vikings (-2.6, 27th) and Falcons (-0.4, 16th) are only 2.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 52%/48%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Falcons vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 47c or below, or the Falcons at 43c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Falcons?
Atlanta Falcons visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Falcons this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.2 wins (favored in 4) and the Falcons at 8.6 (favored in 8). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Falcons', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Falcons vs Vikings?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Vikings at 47c or below or the Falcons at 43c or below, off a 0.5-point line.
Can you trade Falcons vs Vikings on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 12 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV29ATLMIN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Vikings?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Vikings at 52% over the Falcons sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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