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NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

NFL Week 6 · Model Context Protocol · Kalshi-primary · No API key

The draft’s over. Your agent isn’t.

NFL MCP Server — Kalshi Props, Spreads & Game Edges Inside Claude, ChatGPT & Grok

The same connector that ran the draft desk now prices the season. Connect once and ask in plain English: the best price on a prop across every venue, whether the model disagrees with Kalshi on the tail or the median of a spread, what a same-game combo is really worth once the legs are correlated, and which games are mispriced this week — then size the position. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

Sixty seconds: one connector, no API key, then the prop board, the ladder, a same-game combo, this week’s edges and a position size — answered by the server’s own tools. Watch on YouTube

Quick Answer

the PredictionMarketsPicks MCP server is the in-season NFL desk for an AI agent. Add https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl to Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Cursor or Copilot and 37 tools answer with no key — nfl_prop_board prices every Kalshi prop this week venue by venue, nfl_ladder puts every spread, win-total and prop strike against the model's whole distribution, combo_edge prices a same-game combo with a correlation-aware joint, and kelly_size sizes the result. nfl_edge and nfl_prop_edge (the weekly game and player-prop edges against live Kalshi prices) are Pro — $111 for the first year with code NFL26. The engines behind the tools publish a graded record: 2,740 decided signals graded against the market that priced them, +$120.96 net on a flat one-contract stake — 61 of them since the current engine versions shipped, -$2.42 — published per tool, including the engines that lose money.

Connect your agent →

Five prompts, word for word

Each one below is a frame from the clip above, in the order it asks them. Say the prompt to a connected agent and it resolves to the named tool; every answer links back to the same numbers on this site.

nfl_prop_board output: Josh Allen 250+ passing yards priced on Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers and Novig/ProphetX, with the best over and best under venue named
1 · nfl_prop_board · Free

“Where’s the best price on Allen 250+ pass yards?”

Every venue. One prompt.

Every Kalshi prop strike with a real two-sided book, the book consensus at that exact strike, the DraftKings / FanDuel / BetRivers lines, the Novig and ProphetX quotes, the Kalshi-vs-consensus gap in cents — and where the best price for each side actually is, Kalshi net of fee.

The full prop board on the site →

nfl_ladder output: the Kalshi KXNFLSPREAD ladder for the Bills with the model probability at each strike and the verdict SHAPE
2 · nfl_ladder · Free

“Where does the model disagree with Kalshi on the Bills spread — the tail or the median?”

Shape or location — the ladder tells you which.

Every Kalshi strike on a spread, season win total or player prop beside our whole probability distribution, ranked by the widest published gap, with the derived verdict: SHAPE (we disagree about the tail, not the middle), LOCATION (we think the median sits elsewhere) or PRICED. Our number is published only between 30% and 70%, where it is measured calibrated.

The Ladder on the site →

combo_edge output: the naive product of two leg prices beside the correlation-aware joint probability, the fair odds band, and the verdict RUN with a negative-correlation-trap flag
3 · combo_edge · Free

“Price Allen 250+ pass yds at 55¢ with BUF moneyline at 60¢ — Kalshi quotes +250.”

Correlation-aware. Not the naive product.

Pass a game and the tool lists that game’s real Kalshi legs — moneyline, spreads, the total ladder and player props, both sides of every contract. Pass leg ids and it prices the exact combo with a correlation-aware joint from the scoreline model, a fair-odds band, and a 7-tier verdict against the price you were quoted. A prop is priced conditional on the game script, so four unders that all need a low-scoring game are priced as the correlated slip they are.

Combo Edge Builder on the site →

nfl_edge Pro preview: the count of NFL game edges of four points or more against live Kalshi prices and the largest edge, with the free in-season tools listed underneath
4 · nfl_edge · Pro

“Which NFL games are mispriced on Kalshi this week?”

The wall is honest. So is the number.

nfl_edge is a Pro tool, and the wall tells you what is behind it before asking for anything: how many game edges of 4pp or more sit against live Kalshi prices right now, and the largest one. Pro returns the matchups, the model probability and the side — plus nfl_prop_edge for the player props.

What the wall says right now7 NFL game positions on the board against live Kalshi prices — largest edge 4pp. Pro returns the matchups, the model probability, and the side. 2 NFL player-prop plays cleared our publish gate against the Kalshi lines. Pro returns the players, the side and the tier.

This week’s game edges on the site →

kelly_size output: the quarter-Kelly stake in dollars, the number of contracts, and the percentage of a $500 bankroll
5 · kelly_size · Free

“Quarter-Kelly that at 15.3pp on a $500 bankroll.”

Then size it.

Win probability, contract price, bankroll and a Kelly fraction in; the stake in dollars, the applied fraction and a risk rating out. An edge is disagreement with the market, not a guarantee — sizing is where that sentence becomes a number.

Kelly Criterion Calculator on the site →

On the board this week

What nfl_prop_board is reading as this page renders — the same cache the agent reads.

Kalshi prop strikes listed
2,274
With a real two-sided book
869
Priced against 3+ books
49
Games on the slate
14

Board as of Oct 15, 2026, 3:20 AM ET · a gap is a price difference, not a call.

The week's top game edge, as the agent sees it

What nfl_edge returns first: the highest model-vs-Kalshi disagreement on the current slate, auto-advancing every week and refreshed every 5 minutes.

Connect your agent

One remote MCP server (Streamable HTTP). No API key is needed to start calling the free tools. Note the /mcp twice — the base path /api/mcp on its own will not connect.

Server URL
https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl
Claude Code (CLI)
claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl
Claude Desktop · Claude.ai · ChatGPT · Grok · Cursor (custom connector)

Add this URL as a custom connector / remote MCP server: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl. In Grok the path is grok.com/connectors → New Connector → Custom.

JSON config — Claude Code (.mcp.json) and Cursor (mcp.json)
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "predictionmarketspicks": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl"
    }
  }
}

VS Code: the same entry goes under "servers" (not "mcpServers") in .vscode/mcp.json.

Full tool list, tiers, registry entries and the graded record are on the server page. The manifest lives at /.well-known/mcp/server.json.

Free right now — 37 tools, no key

Every tool below answers with no key and no account. Each returns structured numbers plus a link to the same tool on the site.

calculate_ev

Expected-value edge on a contract from its price and your probability, with a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal.

kelly_size

Optimal Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) for a bankroll, with a risk rating.

bayes_update

Chain one or more pieces of evidence onto a prior to get the posterior probability, step by step.

convert_probability

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds (odds carry no commas).

base_rate_gap

Compare a market price to a historical base rate and get the gap in points plus sample-size quality.

combo_edge

Grade a same-game combo on EV with a 7-tier verdict + negative-correlation-trap flag. Renders as an interactive card in supported hosts.

fed_rate_odds

Live Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate.

nfl_power_ratings

PWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier.

nfl_win_probability

Turn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread.

nfl_ladder

The Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. Free.

nfl_prop_board

Best price on every NFL prop this week — Kalshi (fee included) vs five books and the Novig and ProphetX exchanges, how much cheaper Kalshi is than the books, and the Kalshi close once a strike settles.

ladder_arb

Kalshi college football and NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order — locked arbitrage, crossed-mid inversions and wide books, the whole board free. Pro adds the resting orders, net-of-fee edge and ¼-Kelly on every row.

fifteen_min_board

Every Kalshi 15-minute series live — whether a window is open, the YES price, the close time, what settles it, and how the last 96 windows settled. Crypto, metals, oil, gas, currencies, plus the pre-launch index and Treasury series.

perps_board

Every Kalshi perp — price, volume, open interest, Kalshi's max leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch.

perp_liquidation

Where a leveraged Kalshi perp position liquidates (estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters), with fees and funding over your hold.

senate_map

Every 2026 Senate seat on the ballot — seat holder, structure rating, forecaster bands and the live Kalshi price (Democrat-implied % or the favorite contract), closest race first, with a page per seat.

race_odds

One 2026 Senate, governor or House race by state, code or slug — every Kalshi leg with price, volume and link, the seat holder and rating, the forecasters we track, and the race page.

who_do_i_draft

Your roster + pick number → the single best pick, weighing positional need against value.

draft_board

The ranked 2026 fantasy draft board (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR) — projection, ADP, round, SLEEPER/BUST flag. Filter by position.

best_available

Best players still on the board given your pick number and who is already drafted.

compare_players

Compare 2–4 players side by side with a pick recommendation and the best market value.

player_outlook

One player's projection, floor/ceiling, boom/bust, ADP, and SLEEPER/BUST read.

sleepers_and_busts

The biggest gaps between our model and consensus ADP — sleepers to target, busts to avoid.

adp_market_gaps

Where platform ADP disagrees with our projection the most — the players the room is systematically mispricing on your specific platform.

explain_player

Why the board ranks a player where it does — model rank vs market ADP vs the published blend, and what the projection does not model.

explain_game

Why we price one NFL game where we do — the Kalshi price and market line, our model's own line as a lean in points, each team's Off / Def / ST power rating, the QB gate, and whether a position is published or withheld and why.

explain_prop

Why we publish a call on one NFL player prop — the Kalshi contract, the YES/NO call and Kalshi's price for that side, our tier and calibrated odds, our projection against the threshold, and whether it is a PLAY or a WATCH and why.

explain_ladder

Why The Ladder reads one NFL strike ladder the way it does — a game's spread, a team's season wins or a player's prop: which way our curve leans or how its shape differs from Kalshi's, where Kalshi's ladder centres beside our projection, and every strike with our number where we publish one.

nhl_edge

Tonight's NHL board — every Kalshi game contract as Market · Model · Fair with the starting goalies checked, plus player-goal contracts (Goal of the Day) and Stanley Cup futures vs a 10,000-season sim. Free.

weather_board

Every open Kalshi daily-high temperature strike in 13 cities — YES price off a two-sided book, the settlement station and source, the strict greater-than rule, and the NWS forecast high beside the price.

track_record

Every graded signal per engine plus Play of the Day: W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era, with WATCH calls kept apart. The same numbers as the track record page.

my_league

Your Sleeper league by username: each starter beside every Kalshi prop strike on him this week, with the best price per side, opponent, kickoff and OUT/QB-gate flags. Market data only.

start_sit

Two to four players side by side: the median Kalshi is pricing for each stat, read off his own strike ladder, plus his anytime-TD price. Market prices only — the call stays yours.

waiver_targets

Sleeper's most-added players in the last 24 hours with what Kalshi is pricing each at this week — filtered to players still available in your league when you give a username.

nba_prop_board

Every Kalshi NBA player-prop strike — points, rebounds, assists, threes — beside the books and exchanges quoting the same strike, with the cheapest venue per side (Kalshi fee included). Market prices only, no model.

nba_game_board

Kalshi NBA moneyline, spread and total beside the books and exchanges at the same line, with the cheapest venue per side (Kalshi fee included). Market prices only, no model.

nba_injury_impact

Today's NBA absences from the official injury report, and the teammates whose minutes, points and usage rose in past games without each star — sample size on every row, questionable players forked until ruled, beside today's Kalshi prop prices. Historical splits, no projection.

Pro in season — the edges

The pair that returns the model’s disagreement with the live Kalshi price, side and probability included. Without a key they answer with an honest wall: the live count and the largest edge, never a bare refusal. $111 your first year, then $150.00/yr — 26% off with code NFL26, ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.

Pro keys are provisioned at checkout and managed at /account/keys; pass one as an Authorization: Bearer header. Bought from inside a conversation? The agent’s session unlocks the moment checkout completes — nothing to install.

The draft board is parked, not gone

draft_board, best_available, sleepers_and_busts, adp_market_gaps, who_do_i_draft, compare_players, explain_player, player_outlook answer from this week's NFL board; the 0 draft-board tools answer with a redirect to the tools above until the 2027 offseason — your connector keeps working and nothing needs reinstalling. The draft hub stays up at /draft.

Every signal graded against the market that priced it

The engines behind these tools publish a record rather than claim one: 2,740 decided signals graded against the market that priced them, +$120.96 net on a flat one-contract stake — 61 of them since the current engine versions shipped, -$2.42 — published per tool, including the engines that lose money. The full per-engine ledger is at /track-record. An edge is disagreement with the market, not a guarantee.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there an MCP server for NFL prediction markets?

Yes. The PredictionMarketsPicks MCP server exposes its NFL model and the live Kalshi NFL board as tools any MCP client can call — Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Cursor or Copilot. In season the NFL tools are nfl_prop_board (every Kalshi prop strike this week priced venue by venue), nfl_ladder (every spread, win-total and prop ladder against the model's whole distribution), combo_edge (a correlation-aware same-game combo), nfl_power_ratings, nfl_win_probability, and the Pro pair nfl_edge and nfl_prop_edge. Endpoint: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl (Streamable HTTP).

Can Claude or ChatGPT get Kalshi NFL prop prices?

Once the server is connected, yes. Ask "where is the best price on Puka Nacua receiving yards" and the agent calls nfl_prop_board, which returns every Kalshi strike with a real two-sided book, the book consensus at that strike, the DraftKings, FanDuel and BetRivers lines, the Novig and ProphetX quotes, and where the best price for each side is — cents per dollar of payout, Kalshi net of fee. Every row carries the Kalshi market link and the matching page on this site. No API key is needed.

Which of the NFL tools are free?

37 tools answer with no key and no account right now: calculate_ev, kelly_size, bayes_update, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, combo_edge, fed_rate_odds, nfl_power_ratings, nfl_win_probability, nfl_ladder, nfl_prop_board, ladder_arb, fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, senate_map, race_odds, who_do_i_draft, draft_board, best_available, compare_players, player_outlook, sleepers_and_busts, adp_market_gaps, explain_player, explain_game, explain_prop, explain_ladder, nhl_edge, weather_board, track_record, my_league, start_sit, waiver_targets, nba_prop_board, nba_game_board, nba_injury_impact. nfl_edge and nfl_prop_edge are Pro tools — the wall they return is a 200 with the live count and largest edge in it, never a bare refusal. Pro is $111 for the first year with code NFL26, then $150.00/yr, or $14.99/mo.

What happened to the fantasy draft tools?

Half of them answer this week. draft_board, best_available, sleepers_and_busts, adp_market_gaps, who_do_i_draft, compare_players, explain_player, player_outlook answer from the NFL prop board in season; the draft-board tools () answer with a redirect to the in-season tools until the 2027 offseason at predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the connector stays connected and nothing needs reinstalling. Fantasy football was the bridge; pricing the real season against Kalshi is the product.

What does SHAPE vs LOCATION mean on the Ladder?

A Kalshi spread, win total or player prop trades as a ladder of strikes. nfl_ladder puts the Kalshi price at every strike beside our full probability distribution and names the disagreement: SHAPE means the gap changes sign across the ladder — we disagree about the tail, not the middle; LOCATION means every rung leans the same way — we think the median sits somewhere else; PRICED means the gap is under 5pp everywhere. Our number is published only between 30% and 70%, where it is measured to be calibrated; outside that band the tool returns the market only.

Does combo_edge account for correlation between legs?

Yes — that is the point of it. Multiplying two leg prices assumes the legs are independent, and a quarterback's passing-yards prop is not independent of his team's moneyline. Pass an NFL game and combo_edge lists that game's real Kalshi legs; pass the leg ids and it computes the correlation-aware joint probability from the scoreline model, returns the fair-odds band, flags a negative-correlation trap, and grades the price you were quoted on a 7-tier scale from SMASH to RUN. Props are priced conditional on the game script — pace from the total, flow from the margin — inside the same model as the game legs.

How do I connect it?

Add https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl as a remote MCP server. In Claude Desktop or Claude.ai it is a custom connector; in ChatGPT it is under connectors / developer mode; in Grok it is grok.com/connectors → New Connector → Custom; from Claude Code run claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-nfl. Note the /mcp twice — the base path /api/mcp on its own will not connect. No key is needed for the free tools; Pro tools take a PredictionMarketsPicks API key as an Authorization: Bearer header, which Claude Code, Claude Desktop (config file) and Cursor accept; in Claude.ai and ChatGPT on the web, add https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/connect as a connector instead and sign in with the email on your Pro account.

Is Kalshi a sportsbook?

No. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange — a prediction market where every NFL contract is a YES/NO position that settles at $1 or $0. The tools treat each one as a probability problem: our number against the market price, the edge in percentage points, and the position size that edge supports. Every signal our engines publish is settled against the market that priced it and graded in public at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record, losses included. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

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