Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 4 in Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 6 2026 — 61% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Cowboys, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Packers at 56c or below (or Cowboys at 34c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DAL
+1.5
GB
+2.9
Cowboys
39%
model win prob
Packers
61%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGBhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Packers at 56c or below, or the Cowboys at 34c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Cowboys at Packers
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Cowboys come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Packers against 10 days' rest for the Cowboys. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Packers by 4 (61%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Cowboys come in off the Buccaneers, the Packers off the Bears. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.2 (5th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.2 (32nd) — 6.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.9, 3rd) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 15th), a 4.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Cowboys grade +0.7, 7th in the league, against +0.3 (21st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.7 projected wins for the Packers against 8.8 for the Cowboys, favored in 13 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Cowboys'.
One team has owned this series: the Packers are 8-3 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 9 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: TIE won 40-40 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Packers 61%, Cowboys 39%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Packers contracts a buy at 56c or below and Cowboys contracts a buy at 34c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cowboys vs Packers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cowboys vs Packers in Week 6?
Our power-rating model favors the Packers by 4 points, a 61% win probability over the Cowboys. The Packers rate 5th of 32 (+2.9) and the Cowboys 11th (+1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Cowboys have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 4-point line or the 61% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Packers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 56c or below, or the Cowboys at 34c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Packers host the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
What does the model project for the Packers and Cowboys this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13) and the Cowboys at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Cowboys', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Packers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Packers at 61% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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