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Home/NFL/Week 6/Cowboys vs Packers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 6 · 2026

Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23

Final. Packers' next game: Packers vs Patriots, Week 9 →Upset: Packers closed +102 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 1 (54% to win); the Packers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Packers at 50c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 1 (54% to win). The Packers won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Packers: -1c — we archived the Packers at 51c on Oct 12; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 50c on Oct 18. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 6 · 2026-10-19

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Packers to winModel 54% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 50% on GB — kept as the pre-game record.50c54%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Packers 23, Cowboys 13: Jordan Love threw and ran for touchdowns, and Green Bay intercepted Dak Prescott twice inside its own 20

Green Bay led 17-0 at halftime on Sunday night and Dallas never got closer than ten. Love hit Matthew Golden from nine yards to finish a 14-play, 90-yard opening drive and ran in from the 1 with 23 seconds left in the half; in between, Evan Williams and Brandon Cisse picked off Prescott at the Green Bay 3 and 18 on consecutive Dallas drives. Trey Smack added field goals from 25, 44 and 29 yards, and the Cowboys’ only touchdowns were Javonte Williams’ 1-yard run in the third quarter and Prescott’s 6-yard pass to Ryan Flournoy with 44 seconds left. The two teams combined for 22 penalties, 11 each. DraftKings opened the Packers as 3-point home favorites and closed them 1.5-point underdogs; they won by ten, and 36 points finished under both the opening 51.5 and the closing 54.5.

Cowboys 13—Packers 23

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Green Bay at 53.5%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 1-point Packers line. Green Bay won. The model’s own read had the Packers by 4.7, a 3.7-point lean toward Green Bay, tier MODERATE, and they won by ten: the lean was right. The quarterback gate read PASS. Unlike most weeks, the ledger holds a live game-line position on this game: the Packers game winner, revision 4, HIGH, 4.03 points of edge, YES at 51.5¢ on Sunday morning. It closed at 49.5¢, so the price moved two cents against us before kickoff (CLV −2¢), and then Green Bay won: the position resolved our way. That outcome is derived from the final score; the ledger has not graded it yet. Three earlier revisions of that row (a Dallas side on October 9, then two Green Bay entries at MODERATE) and a game-total row were voided before kickoff when the edge was gone, and count in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff player run carried no PLAY rows on this game. It carried 21 WATCH rows, graded apart as always and never folded into the record. Five are suppressed stats the board never displays (Prescott under 274.5 and 299.5 passing yards, Love under 274.5 and 299.5, Christian Watson to score) and they count in neither direction. The 16 visible rows went 5-11. Brevyn Spann-Ford over 0.5 catches (four), Prescott under 1.5 and 2.5 touchdown passes (one) and Love under 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards (12) were right. The board was wrong about where Prescott’s throws went: CeeDee Lamb under 5.5 and 6.5 catches (he caught nine), Flournoy under 2.5 and 3.5 catches (seven) and all four Jake Ferguson overs (two catches, 13 yards) lost, along with Javonte Williams over 14.5 receiving yards (nine), KaVontae Turpin over 0.5 catches (none; he left in the first quarter) and Love under 9.5 rushing yards.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Packers −3 → Cowboys −1.5
Total
51.5 → 54.5
To win
DAL +140 / GB −166 → DAL −122 / GB +102

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 3 to 54.5; the game landed on 36.

How it happened

Q1

A 90-yard opening touchdown drive, then a Dallas pick-six taken back on review

Green Bay’s first possession went 14 plays and 90 yards and ended with Love’s 9-yard throw to Golden at 4:43 of the first quarter. Late in the quarter Dee Winters made a diving interception of a pass meant for Golden and ran it 42 yards into the end zone, but replay ruled Golden had touched him while he was down, and Dallas took over at the Green Bay 42 instead of tying the game.

Packers TD drive
14 plays · 90 yds · 6:30
After the TD
Packers 7, Cowboys 0 (4:43 Q1)
Winters interception
at GB 42, touchdown reversed on review

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Two interceptions inside the 20, a Smack field goal, and Love from the 1 before the half

Dallas drove from the Green Bay 42 to the 17 and Evan Williams intercepted Prescott’s throw for Lamb at the 3. The Packers answered with a 15-play drive that took 8:17 and ended in Smack’s 25-yard field goal. Dallas reached the Green Bay 28 next time and Cisse picked off another pass meant for Lamb at the 18, and Love then moved Green Bay 77 yards in 1:27 and scored on a 1-yard keeper with 23 seconds left.

E. Williams INT
at GB 3, returned 17 yds
Cisse INT
at GB 18 (2:00 Q2)
Love TD drive
9 plays · 77 yds · 1:27
Halftime
Packers 17, Cowboys 0

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Javonte Williams from 1, answered by Smack from 44

A 16-yard punt return set Dallas up at the Green Bay 46, and nine plays later Javonte Williams ran in from the 1 at 9:19 of the third quarter. Green Bay went 42 yards in 11 plays on its next possession and Smack made it 20-7 from 44 yards.

Cowboys TD drive
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:32
Smack
44-yard FG, 5:02 Q3
After three quarters
Packers 20, Cowboys 7

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Smack from 29, a Dallas drive that died at the 14, and a touchdown with 44 seconds left

Smack’s 29-yarder at 10:06 made it 23-7. Dallas then put together a 14-play drive, helped by two Green Bay roughing-the-passer penalties, but turned it over on downs at the Packers’ 14 with five minutes left. Prescott found Flournoy from six yards with 44 seconds to go and the two-point pass to Lamb fell incomplete. “We’re in a hole,” Brian Schottenheimer said afterward.

Final
Packers 23, Cowboys 13
Love
23 of 41 · 276 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · 1 rush TD
Prescott
34 of 54 · 258 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT
Golden
6 catches · 104 yds
Penalties
DAL 11 for 108 · GB 11 for 96

AP via ESPN — Jordan Love, Green Bay’s defense lead the way in Packers’ 23-13 victory over Cowboys

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. The live nfl_weekly_edges row (2026_06_DAL_GB_moneyline, revision 4) had result and pnl_cents null when this was written, as did every player row on the final pre-kickoff run; grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W6_SNF_RECAP_2026-10-19/prop-reconciliation-dal-gb-w06.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • KaVontae Turpin has no receiving line in the ESPN box score but appears elsewhere in it, and the AP says he left in the first quarter with a rib injury, so his catch row is graded at zero rather than left open.
  • The AP says three more Love touchdown passes were dropped (two by Golden, one by Watson). The ESPN play-by-play does not tag drops, so that count rests on one outlet.
  • This recap does not know why the DraftKings line moved from Green Bay −3 at the open to Dallas −1.5 at the close, and claims no cause.
  • The severity of Dee Winters’ Achilles strain, Turpin’s rib injury and the fourth-quarter injury the play-by-play logs for Brandon Cisse was not known when this was published.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-19. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Jordan Love, Green Bay’s defense lead the way in Packers’ 23-13 victory over Cowboys

Lamb and Pickens against whoever Green Bay has left at cornerback, and two bottom-six lines meeting in the middle

Both quarterbacks are confirmed, so the gate has nothing to say. The game is about attrition: Green Bay practised Wednesday without both of its top cornerbacks, has lost two defensive starters to torn Achilles tendons in consecutive weeks, and will not have Micah Parsons for his former team. Dallas brings the league’s most-targeted receiver pair into that, and a defense that has sacked a quarterback five times and intercepted nobody all season. Our board leans Green Bay at WATCH — lower confidence — and this is what that lean is up against.

Cowboys pass offense · Packers coverage

CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens against a cornerback room that practised without Nixon and St-Juste

Edge: Cowboys

Lamb and Pickens have 92 targets between them in five games, and Lamb is averaging over a hundred receiving yards a game. The men assigned to them are the question. Keisean Nixon did not practise Wednesday with a groin injury and Benjamin St-Juste did not practise with a hamstring; neither has a game status yet because none exist before Friday. If both sit, the cornerbacks left on the 53 are rookie second-round pick Brandon Cisse, Carrington Valentine and Kamal Hadden, with Javon Bullard working the slot. Nixon has been the room’s best player — an interception and four passes defensed — and Cisse has started all five games opposite him, so a Nixon absence does not just remove a starter, it promotes the third and fourth corners into a Sunday-night matchup against the league’s most dangerous receiver pair. Lamb himself practised in full on a thigh listing and should play.

Green Bay cornerbacks, Wednesday
Nixon (groin) DNP · St-Juste (hamstring) DNP · remaining CBs on the 53: Cisse, Valentine, Hadden
Dallas receiver pair, five games
Lamb 39 catches, 507 yards, 4 TD on 51 targets · Pickens 27-355-1 on 41 targets
Lamb, Wednesday
Full participation (thigh) after leaving the Tampa Bay game in the fourth quarter

Source: packers.com — official Packers/Cowboys injury report, Week 6 (Wednesday 2026-10-14)

Cowboys pass rush · Packers pass protection

The league’s worst pass-blocking line against a pass rush that has five sacks

Close to even

This is the matchup where both sides are weak and something has to give. Green Bay ranks last in the league in pass-block win rate and Love has already been sacked ten times; left guard Aaron Banks returned to practice Wednesday on a limited basis after missing most of a month, and LaFleur called the line “fluid”. Across from it is a Dallas front rebuilt around two former Packers — Kenny Clark, who came in the Parsons trade, and Rashan Gary, acquired for a 2027 fourth-rounder — plus Quinnen Williams, and it has produced five sacks in five games, 31st in pass-rush win rate, with no interception on the season. A bad line against a rush that cannot finish usually resolves toward the quarterback having time, and when Love has had time this year he has been throwing deep: Christian Watson is averaging 18.2 yards a catch with six touchdowns, and the 31-7 win over Chicago was 25-of-31 for 367 yards.

Green Bay protection
26% pass-block win rate, 32nd · Love sacked 10 times on 195 dropbacks (5.1%) · Banks limited Wednesday (knee/toe)
Dallas pass rush
41% pass-rush win rate, 31st · 5 sacks and 0 interceptions in five games · 72.3% completions allowed
What Love does with time
Watson 26-474-6 at 18.2 per catch · Love 25/31, 367 yds, 2 TD vs Chicago in Week 5

Source: Baltimore Sports and Life — 2026 NFL Week 6 preview (ESPN pass-block / pass-rush win rates through Week 5)

Packers run offense · Cowboys run defense

Green Bay’s run game is last in the league, and so is Dallas’s run defense

Edge: Packers

Green Bay averages 3.1 yards a carry, the worst figure in football, with two rushing touchdowns all season and a backfield split between MarShawn Lloyd on early downs and Kaleb Johnson behind him. The reason that may not matter Sunday is the opponent: Dallas allows 5.1 yards a carry, also last in the league, has given up 842 rushing yards in five games, and let Tampa Bay run for 241 on Thursday night. Dallas also allows a 52.6% conversion rate on third down, the worst in the NFL, against a Green Bay offense converting 27.6% of its own, also the worst. One of those two numbers has to move, and the one with a sample behind it is Dallas’s: four of its five opponents have run for 165 yards or more. If Green Bay can stay on schedule on the ground for the first time this year, the deep shots to Watson and Matthew Golden come off play-action rather than obvious passing downs, and that is the version of this offense that scored 31 last week.

Packers run game
99 carries, 302 yards, 3.1 per carry, 2 TD — 32nd · third-down offense 27.6%, 32nd
Cowboys run defense
842 rushing yards allowed, 5.1 per carry — both 32nd · 241 allowed to Tampa Bay in Week 5
Cowboys third-down defense
52.6% conversions allowed, 32nd

Source: Pro Football Reference — 2026 Green Bay Packers and 2026 Dallas Cowboys team pages

Packers pass rush · Cowboys offense

The Packers defense that posted those numbers no longer has Cooper, Hargrave or Parsons

Edge: Cowboys

The honest counterweight to any lean toward Green Bay. The season-to-date defensive numbers are good — 4.7 yards a play allowed, 14 sacks, seven interceptions, three of them by Xavier McKinney — but they were built by a unit that is being dismantled a week at a time. Edgerrin Cooper led the team in sacks and tackles for loss when he tore an Achilles in Week 4; Javon Hargrave tore his in the fourth quarter against Chicago and is headed to injured reserve; Jonathan Ford, who was supposed to absorb Hargrave’s snaps, did not practise Wednesday with a calf injury, and Devonte Wyatt and Anthony Campbell were both limited. Micah Parsons stays on PUP — the club is not opening his window this week, so the reunion with Dallas does not happen. Against that comes the Dallas offense, which is the opposite of Green Bay’s on money downs: fourth in the league on third down, second in red-zone touchdown rate, with Javonte Williams at six rushing scores and Prescott sacked only six times.

Green Bay front, lost or missing
Cooper (Achilles, out for year, team-high 3 sacks) · Hargrave (Achilles, out for year) · Parsons (PUP, window not opened) · Ford DNP (calf)
Green Bay defense to date
4.7 yards per play allowed · 14 sacks · 7 interceptions (McKinney 3)
Dallas offense on money downs
49.2% third down, 4th · 83.3% red-zone TD rate, 2nd · Prescott sacked 6 times on 198 dropbacks

Source: Packernet — no Micah for Dallas, and now the corners are thin (2026-10-14)

What this read does not know

  • The board’s lean toward Green Bay is a WATCH, and the matchup facts above argue it should stay one. Our model has Green Bay by a little over three points more than the market does. The defensive numbers the rating is built on came from a unit that has since lost Cooper and Hargrave for the year and may play Sunday without both starting cornerbacks; the offensive numbers include the league’s worst run game and worst third-down rate. A lean that rests on season-to-date defense for a team losing a defensive starter a week is exactly the kind of lean WATCH exists for. Nothing here is a position.
  • Nixon’s and St-Juste’s availability is unresolved, and it is the largest single swing on the page. Both were DNP on Wednesday; game-status designations do not exist before Friday. Nixon returning to practice Thursday or Friday puts the matchup back to roughly even in the secondary; both sitting means Cisse, Valentine and Hadden on Lamb and Pickens for sixty minutes. We could not find a report quantifying how many snaps Valentine or Hadden have played in coverage this season.
  • Only one official practice report exists at writing. Everything above about participation is Wednesday, 2026-10-14. Thursday and Friday will resolve Nixon, St-Juste, Banks, Ford and, on the Dallas side, Joey Porter Jr. (ankle, limited), Cobie Durant (hamstring, DNP) and DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring, DNP, one game played all season). Dallas’s own cornerback room is thin enough that Porter’s status matters for the other half of this game, and we have not weighted it.
  • Pressure rate is not available for either team from the sources we could reach. The pass-rush framing above rests on ESPN’s win-rate figures and sack counts. Win rate and sacks diverge — Dallas is 31st in win rate and also last in sacks, which is consistent, but Green Bay is 32nd in pass-block win rate while Love’s sack rate is middling, which means something about Green Bay’s protection is being rescued by the quarterback or the scheme, and we cannot say which.
  • Dallas is on extra rest and Green Bay is not, and we have not priced it. Dallas played Thursday night in Week 5 and has ten days before this kickoff; Green Bay played Sunday. The effect of a mini-bye is small and contested in the literature, but it points the same way as the attrition, and it is one more reason the lean is WATCH rather than anything firmer.

Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: packers.com — official Packers/Cowboys injury report, Week 6 (Wednesday 2026-10-14) · dallascowboys.com — official Cowboys/Packers injury report, Week 6 (Wednesday 2026-10-14) · Packers Wire via Yahoo Sports — Packers first injury report of Week 6: problems arise at CB, DL (2026-10-14) · Yahoo Sports — 13 Packers players appear on first injury report vs. Cowboys (2026-10-15) · Packernet — no Micah for Dallas, and now the corners are thin (2026-10-14) · Cowboys On SI — five Cowboys miss practice in first Week 6 injury report (2026-10-14) · Newsweek — Packers get Micah Parsons update before matchup against his former Cowboys team (2026-10-12) · ClutchPoints — Javon Hargrave Achilles injury fears confirmed after Bears win · Fox 11 — Cooper injury the latest episode of adversity for Packers · Yahoo Sports — Cowboys get bad news heading into Packers game (2026-10-13) · NBC Washington — Cowboys acquire Rashan Gary in trade with Packers (report) · Baltimore Sports and Life — 2026 NFL Week 6 preview (ESPN line win rates through Week 5) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Green Bay Packers · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Dallas Cowboys

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 6 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 18
AWAY DAL -0.6
vs GB -1
HOME GB +1.4
Fair (books) · GB 54% home win prob
Kalshi · GB — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Green Bay, WI PASS — no position

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Cowboys

46%

fair value (books)

Packers

54%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

51%

Madden 27

49%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Cowboys at Packers How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Cowboys at PackersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Cowboys at Packers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Cowboys–Packers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Cowboys vs Packers power ratings (Week 6) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Dallas Cowboys-0.619thAverage
    Green Bay Packers+1.410thPlayoff

    Cowboys and Packers season outlook

    DALGB
    Average wins8.09.7
    Make playoffs32%57%
    Win division25%11%
    Win Super Bowl1.9%3.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Cowboys vs Packers — player pages

    All players →

    CeeDee Lamb

    WR

    Javonte Williams

    RB

    Tucker Kraft

    TE

    Jordan Love

    QB

    George Pickens

    WR

    Josh Jacobs

    RB

    Christian Watson

    WR

    Dak Prescott

    QB

    Jake Ferguson

    TE

    Matthew Golden

    WR

    Ryan Flournoy

    WR

    Brevyn Spann-Ford

    Tyler Goodson

    DAL Cowboys D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: A 3-day rest edge, sized: Cowboys at Packers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 — the graded call is above.

    The Cowboys come in with 3 more days off — 7 days' rest for the Packers against 10 days' rest for the Cowboys. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 2.0-point ratings gap, which has the Packers by 4.5, 63% to win.

    The Cowboys come in off the Buccaneers, the Packers off the Bears. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +1.6 (11th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -4.6 (32nd) — 6.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.5, 3rd) meets the Packers defense (-0.2, 10th), a 3.8-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Cowboys at 8.0 (favored in 6) — 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Packers' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Cowboys'.

    One team has owned this series: the Packers are 8-3 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 9 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: TIE won 40-40 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 63% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Cowboys vs Packers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB
    Market-implied (Packers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Packers)
    54%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 54% for the Packers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Cowboys vs Packers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenuePackersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig49% 49cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Cowboys vs Packers

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    Cowboys vs Packers — frequently asked

    Who won Cowboys vs Packers in Week 6?

    Dallas Cowboys 13, Green Bay Packers 23 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 1 (54% to win), and the Packers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Cowboys vs Packers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Packers by 1 points, a 54% win probability over the Cowboys. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Does the rest advantage change the model line?

    Barely. The Cowboys have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 4.5-point line and 54% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.

    How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Packers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 52c or below, or the Cowboys at 44c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Packers host the Cowboys?

    Dallas Cowboys visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.

    What does the model project for the Packers and Cowboys this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 11) and the Cowboys at 8.0 (favored in 6). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Cowboys', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Cowboys vs Packers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Cowboys vs Packers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18DALGB has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Packers?

    59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Packers at 63% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Packers to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 54% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +3.5 points. Model 54% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 50% on GB — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Cowboys: Week 7 at EaglesModel line →Packers: Week 7 at LionsModel line →

    More Week 6 matchups

    Seahawks at BroncosModel: evenTexans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7

    Full Week 6 board →Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →

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