NFL Week 9 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 9 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 15 games is the Seahawks at 76% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 15 Week 9 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Jaguars at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (54%)
- Bengals at Falcons — Model winner: Falcons (51%)
- Broncos at Panthers — Model winner: Panthers (51%)
- Cowboys at Colts — Model winner: Colts (53%)
- Jets at Chiefs — Model winner: Chiefs (66%)
- Lions at Dolphins — Model winner: Lions (60%)
- Browns at Saints — Model winner: Saints (57%)
- Giants at Eagles — Model winner: Eagles (66%)
- Rams at Commanders — Model winner: Rams (62%)
- Texans at Chargers — Model winner: Chargers (50%)
- Raiders at 49ers — Model winner: 49ers (71%)
- Packers at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (64%)
- Cardinals at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (76%)
- Buccaneers at Bears — Model winner: Bears (64%)
- Bills at Vikings — Model winner: Bills (63%)
All 15 Week 9 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 9 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 15 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Ravens over Jaguars54%—
- Falcons over Bengals51%—
- Panthers over Broncos51%—
- Colts over Cowboys53%—
- Chiefs over Jets66%—
- Lions over Dolphins60%—
- Saints over Browns57%—
- Eagles over Giants66%—
- Rams over Commanders62%—
- Chargers over Texans50%—
- 49ers over Raiders71%—
- Patriots over Packers64%—
- Seahawks over Cardinals76%—
- Bears over Buccaneers64%—
- Bills over Vikings63%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 9 projected scores
- JaguarsatRavens22.9–24.147.0
- BengalsatFalcons23.7–24.047.7
- BroncosatPanthers22.5–22.745.2
- CowboysatColts26.9–27.554.4
- JetsatChiefs18.8–24.943.7
- LionsatDolphins24.5–21.245.8
- BrownsatSaints17.4–19.737.1
- GiantsatEagles20.0–25.745.7
- RamsatCommanders27.6–23.851.4
- TexansatChargers19.6–19.739.3
- Raidersat49ers19.1–28.948.0
- PackersatPatriots22.9–27.650.5
- CardinalsatSeahawks17.3–29.246.6
- BuccaneersatBears22.1–26.648.6
- BillsatVikings25.5–21.346.8
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 9 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 9 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 9 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 15 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 9 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 9 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 15 Week 9 games, with its win probability. Ravens over Jaguars (54%); Falcons over Bengals (51%); Panthers over Broncos (51%); Colts over Cowboys (53%); Chiefs over Jets (66%); Lions over Dolphins (60%); Saints over Browns (57%); Eagles over Giants (66%); Rams over Commanders (62%); Chargers over Texans (50%); 49ers over Raiders (71%); Patriots over Packers (64%); Seahawks over Cardinals (76%); Bears over Buccaneers (64%); Bills over Vikings (63%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 9?
Projected scores, winner first: Ravens 24.1, Jaguars 22.9; Falcons 24.0, Bengals 23.7; Panthers 22.7, Broncos 22.5; Colts 27.5, Cowboys 26.9; Chiefs 24.9, Jets 18.8; Lions 24.5, Dolphins 21.2; Saints 19.7, Browns 17.4; Eagles 25.7, Giants 20.0; Rams 27.6, Commanders 23.8; Chargers 19.7, Texans 19.6; 49ers 28.9, Raiders 19.1; Patriots 27.6, Packers 22.9; Seahawks 29.2, Cardinals 17.3; Bears 26.6, Buccaneers 22.1; Bills 25.5, Vikings 21.3. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 9 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.