Skip to content
THE 7 ORACLESPowered by PredictionMarketsPicks
Pro
NFL EDGES

Live game edges — model vs. Kalshi, ranked

Gridiron Edge · 5-min refresh

NFL 2026

Power rankings, futures & win totals — all 32 teams

FED DESK

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures on the next FOMC decision

Fed Rate Tracker · live

COMBO EDGE

Correlation-aware Kalshi combos — free

Home/NFL/Schedule/Week 9
Gridiron Edge

NFL Week 9 2026 Predictions & Picks

Updated · market prices

Quick Answer

As of October 31, 2026, our Week 9 calls: the model sides with the market favorite in all 15 called games straight up. The model disagrees with the Kalshi price on 6 of 15 games; the widest gap is Patriots at 59% to win versus Kalshi's 55¢. Week 9 picks straight up: Ravens over Jaguars, Bengals over Falcons, Broncos over Panthers, Cowboys over Colts, Chiefs over Jets, Lions over Dolphins, Saints over Browns, Giants over Eagles, Rams over Commanders, Texans over Chargers, 49ers over Raiders, Patriots over Packers, Seahawks over Cardinals, Bears over Buccaneers, Bills over Vikings.

Next widest: Ravens at 60% to win versus Kalshi's 57¢; Bills at 59% to win versus Kalshi's 56¢.

Every game below carries the published win probability, the Kalshi price, and the gap between them — plus the straight-up winner and the model's lean.

See all 15 Week 9 games →Week 10 early picks →

Week 9 straight-up picks

Kalshi has priced 15 of these 15 games and our published probability is anchored to the market on each, so the straight-up pick matches the market favorite by construction — that agreement is the method, not a finding. Widest disagreement this week: our own ratings line sits 4.0 points closer to the Jets than the market's, a read we grade separately and never publish as an edge.

WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Ravens over Jaguars    60%56.5¢
  2. Bengals over Falcons    60%61.5¢
  3. Broncos over Panthers    59%58.5¢
  4. Cowboys over Colts    65%68.5¢
  5. Chiefs over Jets    80%81.5¢
  6. Lions over Dolphins    75%79.5¢
  7. Saints over Browns    59%56.5¢
  8. Giants over Eagles    55%56¢
  9. Rams over Commanders    69%67¢
  10. Texans over Chargers    62%64¢
  11. 49ers over Raiders    82%82¢
  12. Patriots over Packers    59%54.5¢
  13. Seahawks over Cardinals    84%86¢
  14. Bears over Buccaneers    70%72¢
  15. Bills over Vikings    59%56¢

Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model

Thursday edge sheet: all 15 Week 9 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

  1. Jaguars at Ravens — Winner: Ravens (60%) · The play: Ravens ≤ 57¢
  2. Bengals at Falcons — Winner: Bengals (60%)
  3. Broncos at Panthers — Winner: Broncos (59%) · The play: Broncos ≤ 59¢
  4. Cowboys at Colts — Winner: Cowboys (65%)
  5. Jets at Chiefs — Winner: Chiefs (80%)
  6. Lions at Dolphins — Winner: Lions (75%)
  7. Browns at Saints — Winner: Saints (59%) · The play: Saints ≤ 57¢
  8. Giants at Eagles — Winner: Giants (55%)
  9. Rams at Commanders — Winner: Rams (69%) · The play: Rams ≤ 67¢
  10. Texans at Chargers — Winner: Texans (62%)
  11. Raiders at 49ers — Winner: 49ers (82%)
  12. Packers at Patriots — Winner: Patriots (59%) · The play: Patriots ≤ 55¢
  13. Cardinals at Seahawks — Winner: Seahawks (84%)
  14. Buccaneers at Bears — Winner: Bears (70%)
  15. Bills at Vikings — Winner: Bills (59%) · The play: Bills ≤ 56¢

All 15 Week 9 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.

Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.

Biggest NFL upsets of 2026, by closing line →

Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.

Week 9 QB & injury watch

Where a quarterback's status moves our number. An unconfirmed starter gets two lines that collapse to one when the team names him; an unvetted room gets no line until it is.

How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →

Live: every Week 9 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →

Go Pro · 26% off your first year

Every NFL game priced against the live Kalshi line, every week — $150/yr

Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.

Go Pro →

$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.

Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W18
MatchupLineEdge
Jaguarsat
Ravens
Ravens −3+4pp
Bengalsat
Falcons
Bengals −3-1pp
Broncosat
Panthers
Broncos −2.5-3pp
Cowboysat
Colts
Cowboys −4.5+3pp
Jetsat
Chiefs
Chiefs −9.5-2pp
Lionsat
Dolphins
Lions −7.5+4pp
Brownsat
Saints
Saints −2.5+2pp
Giantsat
Eagles
Giants −1.5+0pp
Ramsat
Commanders
Rams −5.5-2pp
Texansat
Chargers
Texans −3.5+1pp
Raidersat
49ers
49ers −10.5+0pp
Packersat
Patriots
Patriots −2.5+4pp
Cardinalsat
Seahawks
Seahawks −11.5-2pp
Buccaneersat
Bears
Bears −6-2pp
Billsat
Vikings
Bills −2.5-4pp

Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Week 9

Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 6:04 AM ET

Where Kalshi and Polymarket US differ most this week

  1. Jets at Chiefs · Jets to win: Kalshi 22.2¢ · Polymarket US 18.5¢ after fees — Polymarket US 3.7¢ less
  2. Jaguars at Ravens · Over 47.5: Kalshi 65.6¢ · Polymarket US 62.7¢ after fees — Polymarket US 3¢ less
  3. Bengals at Falcons · Falcons to win: Kalshi 43.7¢ · Polymarket US 41.7¢ after fees — Polymarket US 2¢ less
  4. Broncos at Panthers · Broncos to win: Kalshi 60.7¢ · Polymarket US 58.7¢ after fees — Polymarket US 2¢ less
  5. Texans at Chargers · Chargers to win: Kalshi 39.6¢ · Polymarket US 38.6¢ after fees — Polymarket US 1¢ less

Not every market is listed on both venues. Each tile prices the market favorite to win on both venues; the strip lists the same-question pairs, across every game this week, where the cost after fees differs most. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee. Prices older than 30 minutes show as no current price.

Week 9 primetime, live

JAX at BAL — full breakdown →
TB at CHI — full breakdown →
BUF at MIN — full breakdown →

Run Week 9 yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)

Week 9 players to watch

All players →

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

Bijan Robinson

RB

Puka Nacua

WR

Ja'Marr Chase

WR

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Jonathan Taylor

RB

James Cook

RB

CeeDee Lamb

WR

Chase Brown

RB

Justin Jefferson

WR

A.J. Brown

WR

Saquon Barkley

RB

Nico Collins

WR

Ashton Jeanty

RB

Kenneth Walker III

RB

Omarion Hampton

RB

One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

Biggest edges · Live on KalshiEvery NFL edge on the board →
PMP · WK 9 MODEL LINE
Sun, Nov 8
AWAY DET +0.6
vs DET -7.5
HOME MIA -4.3
Fair (books) · MIA 25% home win prob
Kalshi · MIA 21¢ yes mid
Edge +4.3pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Miami Gardens, FL NO CALL — model under review
PMP · WK 9 POSITION · HIGH
Sun, Nov 8
AWAY GB +1.4
vs NE -2.5
HOME NE +3.0
Fair (books) · NE 59% home win prob
Kalshi · NE 55¢ yes mid
Edge +4.2pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Foxborough, MA BUY NE
PMP · WK 9 POSITION · HIGH
Thu, Nov 5
AWAY JAX +2.8
vs BAL -3
HOME BAL +1.2
Fair (books) · BAL 60% home win prob
Kalshi · BAL 57¢ yes mid
Edge +4.0pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Baltimore, MD BUY BAL

What moved on Kalshi since yesterday

Patriots · Packers at Patriots+4¢56¢Giants · Giants at Eagles+3¢58¢49ers · Raiders at 49ers+2¢85¢

Change in the Kalshi contract price for that side to win, in cents of probability, between the two most recent daily captures (as of October 31, 2026). A move is a price change, not a call.

NFL Week 9 predictions — frequently asked

Who does the model pick in NFL Week 9 2026?

The fair value (books) disagrees with the Kalshi price by 2 points net of the book's spread on 6 of 15 Week 9 games. The biggest gap is Packers at Patriots, where the pick is the Patriots at a 59% win probability against a Kalshi price of 55¢. Every game's pick, line and edge is in the board above.

How are these NFL Week 9 predictions made?

Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.

What does the edge on each game mean?

Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.

Who will win each NFL Week 9 game?

The model's straight-up winner in each of the 15 Week 9 games, with its win probability. Ravens over Jaguars (60%); Bengals over Falcons (60%); Broncos over Panthers (59%); Cowboys over Colts (65%); Chiefs over Jets (80%); Lions over Dolphins (75%); Saints over Browns (59%); Giants over Eagles (55%); Rams over Commanders (69%); Texans over Chargers (62%); 49ers over Raiders (82%); Patriots over Packers (59%); Seahawks over Cardinals (84%); Bears over Buccaneers (70%); Bills over Vikings (59%). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.

What are the NFL Week 9 picks straight up?

Week 9 picks straight up: Ravens over Jaguars, Bengals over Falcons, Broncos over Panthers, Cowboys over Colts, Chiefs over Jets, Lions over Dolphins, Saints over Browns, Giants over Eagles, Rams over Commanders, Texans over Chargers, 49ers over Raiders, Patriots over Packers, Seahawks over Cardinals, Bears over Buccaneers, Bills over Vikings. Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.

How often are the Week 9 picks updated?

Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.