NFL Week 9 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 30, 2026, the Week 9 slate is not loaded yet.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 15 Week 9 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Jaguars at Ravens β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bengals at Falcons β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Broncos at Panthers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Cowboys at Colts β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Jets at Chiefs β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Lions at Dolphins β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Browns at Saints β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Giants at Eagles β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Rams at Commanders β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Texans at Chargers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Raiders at 49ers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Packers at Patriots β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Cardinals at Seahawks β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Buccaneers at Bears β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bills at Vikings β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
All 15 Week 9 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
Live: every Week 9 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
Week 9 primetime, live
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
Week 9 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 15 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open. 15 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Jaguars at Ravens Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bengals at Falcons Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Broncos at Panthers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Cowboys at Colts Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Jets at Chiefs Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Lions at Dolphins Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Browns at Saints Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Giants at Eagles Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Rams at Commanders Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Texans at Chargers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Raiders at 49ers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Packers at Patriots Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Cardinals at Seahawks Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Buccaneers at Bears Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bills at Vikings Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge; the projected scores below are built from that same raw margin, so they can disagree with the percentage above. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
NFL Week 9 Score Predictions
- JaguarsatRavensQB pending
- BengalsatFalconsQB pending
- BroncosatPanthersQB pending
- CowboysatColtsQB pending
- JetsatChiefsQB pending
- LionsatDolphinsQB pending
- BrownsatSaintsQB pending
- GiantsatEaglesQB pending
- RamsatCommandersQB pending
- TexansatChargersQB pending
- Raidersat49ersQB pending
- PackersatPatriotsQB pending
- CardinalsatSeahawksQB pending
- BuccaneersatBearsQB pending
- BillsatVikingsQB pending
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 42.58 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). β οΈ This margin is the modelβs OWN, not the market-anchored number the win probability above uses once a game is priced β so a 1-point projected margin can sit beside an 85% win probability, and neither is wrong. The gap between them is the lean. The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 9 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 9 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 9 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 15 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 9 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 9 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 15 Week 9 games, with its win probability. Jaguars at Ravens (QB pending); Bengals at Falcons (QB pending); Broncos at Panthers (QB pending); Cowboys at Colts (QB pending); Jets at Chiefs (QB pending); Lions at Dolphins (QB pending); Browns at Saints (QB pending); Giants at Eagles (QB pending); Rams at Commanders (QB pending); Texans at Chargers (QB pending); Raiders at 49ers (QB pending); Packers at Patriots (QB pending); Cardinals at Seahawks (QB pending); Buccaneers at Bears (QB pending); Bills at Vikings (QB pending). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 9?
Projected scores, winner first: Jaguars at Ravens: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Bengals at Falcons: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Broncos at Panthers: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Cowboys at Colts: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Jets at Chiefs: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Lions at Dolphins: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Browns at Saints: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Giants at Eagles: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Rams at Commanders: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Texans at Chargers: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Raiders at 49ers: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Packers at Patriots: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Cardinals at Seahawks: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Buccaneers at Bears: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed; Bills at Vikings: QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 42.58 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) β the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 9 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.